SPX500 LongElite Analysis
Price is rejecting weekly structural liquidity
Targeting upper daily structured liquidity
Executed in smaller time frame
USSP500CFD trade ideas
SPX500 Market Outlook | Fed Meeting & Retail Earnings in FocusSPX500 Overview
Wall Street subdued as retail earnings and Fed meeting remain in focus
U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Wednesday, extending a tech-led pullback on Wall Street. Investors are closely monitoring earnings from major retailers such as Target and Lowe’s, seen as key indicators of consumer health, while awaiting the upcoming Federal Reserve symposium later this week.
Concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on consumer prices have weighed on sentiment, adding to the cautious market tone.
🔎 Technical Outlook
The SPX500 remains under bearish pressure after stabilizing below the pivot line at 6425.
Bearish Scenario:
As long as price trades below 6425, the trend favors the downside, targeting 6389 and 6366. A confirmed break of 6366 could accelerate the decline toward 6321.
Bullish Scenario:
A sustained 4H candle close above 6425 would shift momentum back to the upside, with resistance at 6439, followed by 6468 and 6485.
Support: 6389, 6366, 6341, 6321
Resistance: 6439, 6468, 6485
US 500 Index – Big Sentiment Test AheadIt's been a nervy couple of days for the US 500 index with US technology giants led by NVIDIA taking a hit as traders looked to reduce some risk ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Symposium speech on Friday (1500 BST), where he could shed some light on whether or not the current market expectation of 2 25bps (0.25%) interest rate cuts in 2025 is correct or overblown.
This down move in these key Magnificent Seven stocks has had an outsized influence on the direction of the US 500 due to their large index weightings, and saw prices trade from a record high of 6490 on August 15th down to a low of 6347 yesterday (August 20th).
Before we get to the Jackson Hole risk event, later today US 500 traders will have to negotiate the earnings update from retail giant Walmart, which is released before the market close and will provide a crucial insight into the current spending patterns of US consumers, and perhaps more importantly, update traders on what spending may look like across the remainder of 2025.
Then, the US preliminary PMI surveys for August are due at 1445 BST. These are important forward-looking reports on manufacturing and service activity in the US economy and will provide a health check on the direction of growth, including updates on new orders, employment and costs. Any reading below 50 = economic contraction and any reading above 50 = economic expansion. The service activity reading, which hit a 7-month high at 55.7 in July is possibly the more relevant release for traders given that it’s been the main driver of US growth for many months now while manufacturing has struggled. Any deviation from expectations could lead to further US 500 volatility.
Technical Update: Test or Break of Bollinger Mid-Average Support?
On Friday, August 15th, the US 500 index successfully posted a new all-time high at 6490. However, price action has since turned lower, resulting in a sell-off this week.
As shown on the chart below, the index is currently testing a potential support level, marked by the Bollinger mid-average, which at the time of writing, stands at 6388.
Traders often use the mid-average as an indicator of directional risk. While prices remain above this level, the market is generally considered to be in a positive trend, but when price activity falls below the mid-average, it may signal the development of a downtrend.
Therefore, how the 6388 mid-average level is defended on a closing basis over the coming 2 days might indicate the next possible phase of price movement. A close above this level may reinforce support and suggest a potential rebound in price, while a close below it could open the door to further price downside.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at the possible support or resistance levels to consider ahead of the key risk events across the remainder of the week.
Possible Resistance Levels:
As long as the 6388 mid-average support continues to hold on a closing basis, the uptrend could be classed as still intact. This is supported by the pattern of higher highs and higher lows forming in price since the April 7th low.
As the chart above shows, this setup could be suggesting potential for further price strength, with the initial resistance at the 6490 August 15th all-time high. A closing break above here could then open scope toward 6671, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level.
Potential Support Levels:
While not a guarantee of a more extended price decline, closes below the Bollinger mid-average at 6388, if seen over coming sessions, may reflect increasing risks for a deeper sell-off.
Such moves might suggest potential for moves down to the next support at 6272, which is the 38.2% retracement level. If this level is in turn breached, focus may then shift to 6214, which is the August 1st low, as the next key support.
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US 500 road mapus 500 could be ready for a major c leg down. looking for a significant entry signal down
Traders Go Quiet Ahead of Jackson Hole — What Will Powell Say?Markets have been eerily quiet this week. Not because traders suddenly discovered meditation, but because everyone is waiting for one man in Wyoming to make things move.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the man who moves markets with a simple “Good afternoon,” is about to step onto the stage at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. And when he does, markets will hang on every word — because it’s his final speech as Fed boss at the premium event.
⛰️ Jackson Hole: Where Hiking Boots Meet Basis Points
The Jackson Hole conference isn’t your average PowerPoint snoozefest. Each year, central bankers from around the world swap suits for Patagonia fleeces and gather in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park. Think Davos, but with more elk.
This year’s theme? “Labor Markets in Transition.” Translation: the Fed wants to talk demographics, productivity, and immigration — the forces shaping how Americans work and how the economy grows. But make no mistake: nobody’s tuning in for a TED Talk on labor force participation rates. They want Powell’s take on interest rates.
🎯 Powell’s Big Moment
Powell’s speech may only run about 15 minutes (he’s not known for monologues), but the stakes couldn’t be higher. His term as Fed chair ends in May, and President Donald Trump has spent most of this year taking swings at him — calling him a “major LOSER” and grumbling that the Fed is moving “Too Late” on rate cuts.
Trump has even floated the idea of firing Powell early, which, technically speaking, isn’t supposed to happen. But this is 2025, and “not supposed to happen” has lost most of its meaning.
So, Jackson Hole could be Powell’s last best chance to lock in a legacy: defending the Fed’s independence while signaling where rates are headed next.
⛅️ Markets Already Have a Guess
Wall Street isn’t exactly sitting in suspense. Interest-rate swaps are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September, with two full cuts baked in before the year is out.
Why? Because the data leaves Powell little wiggle room:
Jobs market: Recent revisions show weaker-than-thought employment growth . Maximum employment? Not quite.
Inflation: July’s consumer price index came in at 2.7% year-on-year — stable, but not scary enough to justify keeping rates where they are forever.
Tariffs: Trump’s sweeping duties could pressure inflation further, but they’re also weighing on growth. Powell’s challenge is threading the needle between those forces.
Translation: the Fed looks ready to flip from “higher for longer” to “cutting season.”
🧘♂️ Traders on Mute
If you think markets look a little sleepy, you’re not wrong. On Monday, the S&P 500 basically took a nap , slipping 0.01% as traders sat on their hands. Tuesday was even worse with big tech nosediving all day long.
It’s not just Powell they’re waiting for. Roughly 95% of S&P 500 companies have now reported earnings, (mandatory note: catch all earnings dates in the Earnings Calendar ) with more than 80% beating expectations.
Companies have been surprisingly nimble, offsetting tariffs and riding the weaker dollar . Yet despite the blowout earnings season, nobody wants to make big moves until Powell clears the air.
Call it the pre-Jackson Hole silence — the calm before the potential volatility storm.
🥊 Powell vs. Trump
There’s also political theater baked into this. Trump has made no secret of his desire for lower rates to juice growth and pump markets. Powell, however, has tried to keep the Fed above the political fray.
But that balancing act has been messy. Lower too quickly, and Powell risks stoking more inflation. Hold too high, and he risks slowing the labor market just as it’s showing cracks. Either way, he’ll be accused of playing politics.
This isn’t just about economics. It’s about central bank independence — a fancy way of asking: Can Powell make decisions without getting steamrolled by the White House?
🔮 What to Watch For
Here’s what traders will parse in his speech:
Tone: Does Powell sound more dovish (hinting at cuts) or still hawkish (concerned about tariffs fueling inflation)?
Framework: Will he unveil a new policy strategy for inflation and jobs?
Forward guidance: Any nods to September’s meeting or beyond will be amplified a thousand times on trading desks worldwide.
In other words, the market doesn’t just want Powell’s words. It wants the subtext and the context.
🚀 Why It Matters for Traders
For traders (yes, you), Powell’s Jackson Hole moment has real portfolio consequences:
Equities: A dovish Powell could extend the market’s record run — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq already logged new all-time highs this summer.
Bonds: Rate cuts could mean yields falling, bond prices rising. Treasuries might not be the snooze trade they’ve been.
Dollar: Lower rates could push the greenback down, offering a boost to commodities and emerging markets. Lower rates = lower deposit yields = less appeal to hold greenback.
Crypto: Yes, even Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD cares. A dovish Fed means more liquidity sloshing around — which historically finds its way into risk assets.
🏁 The Takeaway
Markets are quiet now, but don’t expect them to stay that way. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is shaping up as one of the most important of his career — maybe his swan song as Fed chair.
Off to you : Here’s a question (or two). Will he go dovish, handing traders the rate cuts they crave? Or will he stand firm, reminding everyone that the Fed won’t be bullied by politics? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Bullish bounce off?S&P500 (US500) has bounced off the pivot, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 6,346.35
1st Support: 6,296.98
1st Resistance: 6,435.90
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Much support below for the SP500 tomorrow, see the Buy/Sell zone
Grn/Yellow/Red for buy/hold/sell zones
SPX & NDX , Stay heavy on positions.SPX & NDX , Stay heavy on positions. (2x leverage)
Same view as before. No change.
A signal for catching a bounce has emerged.
The bounce signal reflects a swing-to-intraday view and is not tied to the broader trend.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
S&P REBOUND USING DATA POINTS FROM 10 YEARS BACKTHE MARKETS SHOULD REBOUND END SEPT OR EARLY OCTOBER ACCORDING TO HISTORICAL DATA.
ChatGPT helped analyze this chart that I made. I went back 10 years and analyzed how long pullbacks are after a market rally. I removed some of the major outliers like Covid and 2022 rate hikes to 5.25%. Using our sample test cases that somewhat align with our current market conditions this is what ChatGPT helped me with......
Here’s what your boxes say, numerically (ignoring the crisis outliers):
Durations you marked: 31d, 57d, 61d, 63d, 91d, 91d → avg ~66 days, median ~62 days (about 2 months).
Drawdowns you marked: ~6.0%, 9.9%, 10.1%, 11.4%, 15.9%, 17.7%, 18.3% → median ~11.4%, mean ~12.8%.
Most of the time, the “routine” pullback sits ~8–12%; the 15–18% drops do happen, but usually finish quickly (2 monthly bars).
What that implies for this pullback
Using the current level shown on your chart (~6,349):
Typical reset (most common):
–8% to –12% → ~5,84k–5,59k.
That corridor overlaps your MA-ribbon cluster (~5,77k → 5,57k → 5,48k → 5,39k → 5,30k), which is where past pullbacks often end in bull trends.
Deeper but still “normal”:
–15% to –18% → ~5,40k–5,21k, i.e., probing the lower ribbon (~5.39k–5.30k) without breaking the longer-term uptrend.
Time expectation: Your history points to ~2 months on average (range 1–3 months). If this pullback is already one monthly bar in, the base-case is another 1–2 bars of chop/weakness before the trend attempts higher—unless buyers reclaim highs sooner.
Signals to watch on your chart
Monthly closes vs. the ribbon
Healthy: wicks into 5.7k–5.6k that close back above the upper/mid ribbon.
Caution: Two monthly closes < ~5.30k (lower ribbon) plus a flattening ribbon.
RSI(14) monthly (yours is ~70 and curling): a normal reset is 55–60 while price holds the ribbon. Sustained <50 shifts risk to a longer correction.
MACD monthly: a gentle histogram fade with price respecting the ribbon = routine pullback. A bearish cross with closes below the lower ribbon flags the 15–18% scenario or worse.
Quick map (actionable zones)
Shallow buy-the-dip: 5,75x–5,65x
Deeper, still-bull: 5,45x–5,32x
Trend-change risk: persistent closes <~5,30x
Bottom line: with the crisis moves removed, your own data argues the current pullback most likely lasts ~2 months total and bottoms ~8–12% off highs, near the upper/mid MA ribbon. Only if monthly candles start living below ~5.30k (and RSI/MACD roll hard) do the 15–18%/multi-month outcomes become the base case.
Upside move at EndThis upside ongoing move likely to end near 6500,
on touch it may decline to break Black trendline.
As per #ElliottWave internal 2-4 connected trendline
will break and it will confirm completion of internal wave5.
SP500- liquidity hunt in playPrice formed a Change of Character (CHOCH) after printing equal highs, signaling weakness.
Supply zones got respected, confirming bearish order flow.
Now targeting liquidity at the prior Higher Low (HL) around 6210.
S&P 500 ,,, POSSIBLE DEEEEEP CORRECTIONTo be cautious, I exited my position completely yesterday. If the price moves back above the trend line, it will confirm the previous drop was a pullback to the broken price level. Otherwise, it's likely the start of a deeper correction, and I will remain on the sidelines until it is over.
S&P 500 20.08.2025(SPX) — Daily Chart Analysis
Market Overview
The index failed to sustain momentum above the 6490 monthly resistance and has started a corrective pullback. Price action shows rejection at the upper boundary, suggesting a short-term bearish phase within the broader uptrend.
Technical Signals & Formations
Strong rejection from the 6490 MN1 resistance.
Bearish candle formation indicates a deeper correction.
EMA 144 (6023) remains below, acting as dynamic support.
Possible corrective wave toward the 6215–6150 zone.
Key Levels
Resistance: 6490 (MN1), 6420 (local high)
Support: 6215 (H4), 6150 (monthly pivot), 6023 (EMA 144)
Scenario
Primary: Correction continues toward 6215–6150, where buyers may step in.
Alternative: A break above 6420 would invalidate the correction and open a retest of 6490.
S&P 500 ETF & Index– Technicals Hint at a Possible Correction📉📊 S&P 500 ETF & Index at Resistance – Technicals Hint at a Possible Correction 🔍⚠️
Everything here is pure technicals— but sometimes, the market whispers loud and clear if you know how to listen. 🧠📐
The VOO ETF, which tracks the S&P 500 , has now reached the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel, once again brushing against resistance near 590.85. This zone has consistently led to major pullbacks in the past.
On the right panel, the US500 Index mirrors this move—pushing toward all-time highs, right as broader sentiment turns euphoric. Technically, both charts are overextended and pressing into key zones.
👀 Potential Path:
🔻 Rejection from current zone ➝ Down toward 526.17, then 465.72 (green support channel)
🔁 Possible bounce after correction — trend still intact long term
And while we’re keeping it technical, it’s worth noting that the Buffett Indicator (Stocks-to-GDP) i s currently screaming “overvaluation.” This doesn't predict timing—but it adds macro context to an already overheated chart setup.
The lesson? Price respects structure. Whether or not the fundamentals are in agreement, the charts are warning that now may not be the time to chase.
History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. Stay sharp, stay technical. 🎯
One Love,
The FX PROFESSOR 💙
ps. the beauty of these levels? Tight Stop loss- excellent R/R
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
US500 Intraday Buy: Dips Attracting Buyers Near Key SupportUS500 – Buy Limit
Entry: 6396
Target: 6516
Stop Loss: 6356
Type: Intraday
Trade Idea:
Levels close to the 78.6% pullback level of 6395 found buyers, suggesting demand remains intact.
Setbacks should be limited to yesterday’s low, with overnight losses contained.
The primary trend remains bullish, and the 20 1-day EMA at 6384 underpins price action.
Preferred trade is to buy into dips for a potential rebound.
Resistance Levels: 6421 / 6467 / 6490
Support Levels: 6393 / 6369 / 6348
Next Volatile Events:
20/08/2025 19:00 — FOMC Minutes (US)
21/08/2025 01:00 — Jackson Hole Symposium (US)
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
8/20/25 SPX Trade Plan📊 Quantum's Trade Plan 📊
TVC:VIX - TVC:DXY - #10Y = Caution📈
⚪️ 6400 Pivot
🟢 If 6400 fails then short - 6390--6388--6375--6364
🔴If 6400 hold then long - 6409--6426--6440--6445
🔵 -Dex with sell walls at 6400 & 6450
🟠 Vanna neutral - 6405-6410 vanna flip
⚫️ Volume + Flow must support thesis
US500: Bulls Pause as Pullback Risks GrowUS500 has been riding an impressive uptrend, with buyers pushing the index to fresh highs above 6,440, but the recent stalling near resistance suggests that momentum may be losing steam. With growth concerns, central bank caution, and a round of key economic data on deck, the risk of a corrective pullback is building. This setup highlights the importance of watching whether support levels hold or if sellers gain the upper hand.
Current Bias
Bearish (Short Term) – While the broader trend remains bullish, near-term technicals and macro uncertainty point toward a corrective pullback.
Key Fundamental Drivers
US Earnings Season: Mixed corporate earnings, with strength in tech offset by weakness in cyclicals.
Fed Policy: Markets are still weighing timing of potential rate cuts, but sticky inflation data and cautious Fed commentary keep rates elevated.
Bond Yields: US yields remain relatively high, pressuring equities when safe-haven flows emerge.
Macro Context
Interest Rates: The Fed is in a “wait-and-see” mode, balancing sticky services inflation against slowing growth. Rate cuts are still priced for later this year, but not aggressively.
Economic Growth: US economy shows signs of slowing, with softer retail sales and housing data, though labor markets remain resilient.
Commodities/Flows: Energy costs are stabilizing, but higher oil prices in recent weeks could add inflationary pressure.
Geopolitics: Trade tensions, tariffs, and Middle East instability add layers of risk, supporting defensive positioning.
Primary Risk to the Trend
A surprise dovish shift from the Fed or stronger-than-expected US earnings could quickly reignite bullish momentum and push US500 higher, invalidating the pullback scenario.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
FOMC Minutes & Powell Speeches – Markets will look for clarity on rate cut timing.
US CPI & PPI Data – Any upside surprises could weigh heavily on equities.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
The US500 is a leader, often dictating global equity sentiment. Movements in US500 ripple into NASDAQ, DAX, FTSE, and risk-sensitive FX pairs such as AUD/JPY. Its role as a global risk benchmark makes it highly influential.
Key Levels
Support Levels: 6,370, 6,231, 5,920
Resistance Levels: 6,447 (recent high), 6,500 psychological barrier
Stop Loss (SL): 6,480 (above recent highs)
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 6,370
TP2: 6,231
TP3: 5,920
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
US500 bias is shifting to neutral-to-bearish, with the index showing signs of fatigue at highs around 6,440–6,450. A pullback toward 6,370 → 6,231 is possible, with 5,920 as an extended target if risk sentiment deteriorates. A protective stop at 6,480 is key in case bulls regain momentum. Traders should keep a close eye on Fed communication and US inflation data, as these remain the most powerful catalysts for near-term direction. With the US500 acting as a leader for global equities, its moves will likely shape broader market sentiment across stocks, indices, and even risk-sensitive currencies.
Portfolio Update Aug 20 2025I sold all ORCL stocks yesterday as I see the market topped. Big tech companies are retracing now, so this might be the peak for now.
We have Jackson Hole symposium in the upcoming days which may lead to policy changes. We also waiting to see tariff effect in the 3rd quarter earnings. Plus Ukraine war updates.
Disclaimer: This content is NOT a financial advise, it is for educational purpose only.
S&P500 H4 | Bearish dropBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to the sell entry at 6,428.75, which is a pullback resstance and could drop from this level to the take profit.
Stop loss is at 6,488.82, whichis a swing high reistance.
Take profit is at 6,350.26, whichis an overlap support that lines up witht he 50% Fibonacci retracment.
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S&P500: Losing Momentum !I see the rally comes to end, the recent upside move has no momentum. The stocks need a new catalysts to continue, but I do not think this to happen. I suggest that US500 to go down in the next 30 days or so.
Disclaimer: This content is NOT a financial advise, it is for educational purpose only.
S&P 500 Shows Early Signs of Momentum Loss Ahead of Jackson HoleThe S&P 500 has begun to show signs of momentum loss ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting. The number of member stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has not increased, even as the index made new highs. RSI is showing a negative divergence, and the index has slipped below its short-term yellow trendline.
In addition, crypto markets sold off early Monday, and the VIX opened the week with a gap higher, moving above its short-term downtrend. These are still only early signals and not yet concrete confirmation, but traders should be cautious of potential profit-taking ahead of Jackson Hole, where Powell may push back against expectations for rapid rate cuts.
