DJIA bull flagging ahead of 45KThe Dow has opened lower, but with all eyes on the Fed's Powell tomorrow the weakness can be explained away in part by profit-taking. Whether this turns into something more signifcant remains to be seen.
For now, the bullish trend is intact. The 45,000 level has been tested multiple times since November 2024, and this level has held as resistance every single time. Most recently, it was Friday when it finally looked like the bulls were given the all-clear. But the index turned lower to close below that hurdle and again frustrated the bulls.
So far, though, the downside has been limited on this latest failed breakout attempt. This suggests that the index is still gearing up for a potential breakout.
Short-term support at 44,750 has held so far this week, and was being tested again at the time of writing. Below here, 44,500 and then 44,300 are the next key short-term support levels. Even if we see renewed weakness here, so long as the long-term support in the range between 42,800 to 43,150 holds, the path of least resistance would still remain to the upside in so far as the slightly longer-term is concerned. Here, we also have the 200-day average residing.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
DJ30 trade ideas
US30: Will History Repeat Itself?US30: Will History Repeat Itself?
On the left side of the chart, we can see that after breaking below the second pattern, US30 experienced a sharp bearish move.
Now, a similar pattern is forming, and the index has just printed another historical high. If price breaks below the current structureโjust as it did previouslyโthereโs a strong possibility of another aggressive drop.
A breakdown could trigger a repeat of the past sell-off, especially if momentum shifts to bearish and if Powell makes interesting comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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DowJones corrective pullback support at 44380Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 45400
Resistance Level 2: 45660
Resistance Level 3: 46000
Support Level 1: 44380
Support Level 2: 44080
Support Level 3: 43675
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Dow Jones Index Analysis (US30 / Dow Jones):The index is currently trading in a general uptrend, while showing a consolidation phase on the hourly timeframe, testing a support zone near 44,780.
๐ผ Bullish Scenario:
If bullish momentum builds and price breaks above 45,000 with confirmation, the index may head toward 45,200, and with continued buying pressure, new highs could be seen.
๐ป Bearish Scenario (Most Likely):
If the price breaks below 44,750 and holds beneath it, the index could move down to test 44,600, and with further selling pressure, a drop toward 44,500 is possible.
M15 Outlook on US30The market is currently ranging within the channel between the 44,953.9 resistance zone and the 44,792.8 support zone Iโve identified. If price breaks below, Iโll wait for a retest before entering. Alternatively, Iโll look to enter on a reversal if a new candle forms within the channel or above the support trendline.
US30 Technical Breakdown โ 08/21/2025๐ US30 Technical Breakdown โ 08/21/2025
US30 still hovering around 44,860, stuck in a tight range between 44,761โ44,899. Price is consolidating under the major 45,076 resistance, forming a potential coiling pattern for the next move.
Bulls defended 44,761 multiple times โ but without a break above 45,076, momentum stays capped. Sellers will look to exploit a breakdown toward 43,982.
๐ Market Behavior:
๐น Sideways chop in a narrowing range
๐น EMAs flatlining โ market in balance
๐น Repeated rejections at 45k
๐ Key Levels:
Resistance: 44,899 โ 45,076 โ 45,200
Support: 44,761 โ 44,814 โ 43,982
๐ง Bias:
Neutral โ awaiting breakout confirmation.
Could we see a bounce from here?Dow Jones (US30) is falling towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a multi-swing high resistance.
Pivot: 44,311.54
1st Support: 43,870.66
1st Resistance: 45,106.42
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Dow Jones Index Analysis (US30 / Dow Jones):The index is currently in an overall uptrend, moving within a corrective downward channel on the hourly timeframe, with some recovery in prices at todayโs market open.
๐บ Bullish Scenario :
If bullish momentum continues and price holds above 45,000, the index may target 45,200, and with strong buying pressure, we could see a new high.
๐ป Bearish Scenario (Also Possible):
If the price rejects near 44,980 and breaks below 44,800 with confirmation, the index could head toward 44,600, and with further selling pressure, it may drop to 44,500.
DOW JONES Double MA50 Support Zone coming to the rescue?Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 4-month Channel Up and following the recent High, the price started to pull-back ahead of this week's major macroeconomic events.
By doing so, it has approached the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the first line of Support inside this pattern. The previous (Higher) Low of the Channel Up was priced on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and the 2 form the strongest medium-term Support Zone at the moment.
With even the 4H RSI fractals identical, the current price action resembles the June 12 one, post 1D MA50 Low (May 23). Even if the 4H MA50 breaks, the trend will remain bullish unless it closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (which would also be an invalidation of the Channel Up).
The most common rise on a Bullish Leg on this pattern has been +9.00%. As a result, our Target is 47200 as we enter September.
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US30 - Market Structure, Confluence & FIBDear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
Keynote:
Potential for price action to remain in limbo till Friday remains high.
Decisive breakouts required either way.
Just sharing my thoughts - (I have no evidence to back this up)
I'm keeping an eye on this one, maybe it's lagging behind NASDAQ.
Let me know if anything is unclear.
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
DJIthis is DJI daily chart ...
a self explainatory chart ...
from the lows,
looks like we have completed 5 waves in DJI...
if this top is not broken , we are surely going down ...
I am expecting DJI have completed 5 of 5 of V...
and its time for it to start downward journey
Just a view!
Vedang ! :)
Disclaimer: Chart is for study purpose only!!
US30 Outlook: Waiting for Range Break Confirmation Dow JonesIโm looking at the US30 ๐ right now, and price is currently range-bound ๐, reflecting ongoing pressure in the market. While Iโm watching closely for an opportunity, itโs important to recognize when to step aside and wait for the market to set up ๐ฐ๏ธ. If we see a break below the current range low followed by a retest โฌ๏ธ, that could present a selling opportunity. Conversely, if price breaks higher and retests the previous high โฌ๏ธ, that could offer a buy setup. For now, Iโm remaining on the sidelines ๐ช until one of these scenarios unfolds with the momentum Iโm looking for ๐. (Not financial advice.)
US30 Technical Breakdown โ 08/20/2025๐ US30 Technical Breakdown โ 08/20/2025
US30 currently trades around 44,860, consolidating after yesterdayโs pullback from the 45,200 peak. Price is sitting right above the 44,761 support zone, with EMAs flattening โ showing indecision.
Bulls need to reclaim 45,076โ45,200 to regain momentum. A failure here risks another drop back toward 43,982.
๐ Current Market Behavior:
๐น Sideways chop after sharp rally & rejection
๐น Support holding at 44,761
๐น EMAs tight โ potential breakout building
๐ Key Levels:
Resistance: 45,076 โ 45,200 โ 45,400
Support: 44,761 โ 43,982 โ 43,471
๐ง Bias:
Neutral with bearish lean unless 45,200 is reclaimed.
๐ก Trade Ideas:
๐น Long scalp above 44,761 โ TP: 45,076
๐น Breakout long above 45,200 โ TP: 45,400
๐น Breakdown short below 44,700 โ TP: 43,982
Sell Dow Jones (US30) โ Elliott Wave & Chart Pattern OutlookThe chart applies Elliott Wave and pattern analysis on the Dow Jones (US30). Price has completed a large rounded bottom formation (Wave 4 to Wave 3 structure) and is currently consolidating within a contracting triangle pattern.
The market is testing resistance near 45,000.
A corrective wave count (AโBโCโDโE) suggests a possible short-term pullback toward ~43,000 before resuming the next impulsive rally.
If the triangle completes, the next major bullish wave could push US30 significantly higher, with a target above 48,000.
Key Levels:
Support: 43,000 โ 41,865
Resistance: 45,000 โ Breakout toward 48,000
This indicates a short-term corrective dip is possible, but the long-term bias remains bullish.
US30 (DOW): Equal Leg Projection Meets Fibonacci - Long SetupSharing my outlook on the Dow, which aligns with my NASDAQ analysis but with a specific mathematical approach. ๐
**๐ฏ The Setup:**
I'm targeting a long position based on an equal leg projection. Taking the range from the recent low to the all-time high, I expect a decline equal to that same distance. This projection perfectly coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci level - a powerful confluence. ๐ฏ
**๐ Entry Strategy:**
The beauty of this setup is the mathematical precision: the equal leg down from the high lands exactly at the 0.618 Fib level. This confluence gives me high confidence in this support zone for a potential long entry. โ
**โ ๏ธ Risk Management:**
Stop loss would be placed below the projected low, targeting new all-time highs. Clean entry, clear invalidation level. ๐
**๐ง Why This Works:**
Equal leg projections are powerful tools in market analysis. When combined with key Fibonacci levels, they create high-probability reversal zones. The market often respects these mathematical relationships. ๐
**๐ Bigger Picture Alignment:**
This setup aligns with my broader market view - expecting one final push higher before any significant correction. The Dow's equal leg projection gives us a precise entry point for this bullish thesis. ๐
**๐ก Key Insight:**
When geometric projections align with Fibonacci levels, it creates what I call "mathematical harmony" in the markets. These setups often provide the best risk-adjusted opportunities. ๐ต
๐ **This trade setup offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 10:1.** Without including fees, the breakeven win rate for this trade would be approximately 9.09%. Knowing these figures in advance helps me avoid emotional trading. ๐ง
๐ก **Pro Tip**: If you often find yourself trading based on emotions, I recommend doing this type of pre-planning and quantifying your setups before execution โ it can be a simple yet highly effective improvement. โ
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**Trading is simple.** You don't need multiple indicators or dozens of lines on your chart. A clean and simple chart often works best โ it keeps your decisions consistent and reduces uncertainty. Sure, it might not look flashy, and my analysis may seem a bit "plain" compared to othersโฆ but that's how I like it. If you find this analysis useful, feel free to follow me for more updates.
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US30 Holding 45,000 โ Key Zone in PlayUS30 is consolidating just under the 45,000.0 level after a strong rally, showing indecision at this resistance.
Support at: 44,000.0 ๐ฝ | 43,323.5 ๐ฝ | 41,900.0 ๐ฝ | 37,700.0 ๐ฝ
Resistance at: 45,000.0 ๐ผ
๐ Bias:
๐ผ Bullish: A breakout and close above 45,000.0 could extend upside momentum.
๐ฝ Bearish: Failure to hold may trigger a pullback toward 44,000.0 and 43,323.5.
๐ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.