Review of USOIL's Performance This Week📝This week, the USOil market exhibited a highly volatile pattern of "first bottoming out and stabilizing, then rebounding driven by geopolitical factors". The competition between supply-demand fundamentals and sudden geopolitical events dominated the market trend throughout the week. Details are as follows:
💡Price Movement: From Approaching Annual Lows to Intraday Surges, Volatility Within Ranges Intensifies
1. Bottoming Out Early in the Week
On Monday, USOil continued its weak oscillation. It opened at $57.32 per barrel, dipped to a low of around $56 per barrel (approaching the 2025 annual low of $55.12), and finally closed at $56.93 per barrel, down $0.61 from the previous trading day.
From Tuesday to Wednesday, as panic eased, prices gradually stabilized and rebounded. It closed at $57.58 per barrel on Tuesday; on Wednesday, boosted by geopolitical expectations, it surged by $3.25 in a single day to close at $61.75 per barrel, with trading volume rising to 711,600 lots.
2. Rebounding and Then Retreating in the Latter Half of the Week
On Thursday, the official release of detailed EU and U.S. sanctions on Russian energy triggered a strong market reaction. USOil opened at $59.94 per barrel and then jumped, peaking at $62.59 per barrel with an intraday gain of nearly 5%, before closing at $61.44 per barrel.
On Friday, after the earlier rebound, prices entered a consolidation phase, fluctuating narrowly around $62. For the whole week, it rebounded by over 10% from the previous week’s low.
💡Core Influencing Factors:
1. Bearish Drivers: Sustained Supply-Demand Easing Suppresses Oil Prices
✔Worsening Supply Glut
✔Weak Demand Weighs on Prices
2. Bullish Disturbances: Geopolitical Sanctions Trigger a Phased Rebo
💡Technicals and Market Sentiment: Recovery After Oversold Conditions, Persistent Long-Short Divisions
1. Divergent Signals from Technical Indicators
2. Intense Battles Around Key Levels
The support at the annual low of $55.12 proved effective, serving as the starting point for the week’s bottoming and rebound. The resistance levels at $58 and $62 were breached one after another, but the resistance from the $63 level and the 70-dollar trend line still posed long-term pressure. A breakthrough would require sustained improvement in fundamental
💡Outlook: Short-Term Oscillations Unlikely to Reverse Long-Term Weak Trend
💎Short-Term Perspective: Geopolitical risk premiums and technical recovery after oversold conditions may support oil prices to fluctuate within the $58-$63 range. If the supply gap caused by sanctions continues to widen, it may test the resistance level of $66.
💎Long-Term Perspective: The IEA predicts that Brent crude oil prices will range between $52-$60 in 2026. Core contradictions such as loose supply-demand, accelerated energy transition, and approaching demand peaks remain unresolved. If the support at $55 is broken, it may fall to the deep correction range of $49 or even $37.
The market should focus on whether OPEC+ will adjust its production increase plan at the November 2 meeting and the impact of global manufacturing PMI data on demand expectations.
