user100000

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Markets Allocation
94 % cryptocurrency 0 % forex 0 % commodities 5 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 72% | 337 BTCCNY 13% | 61 BITFINEX:BTCUSD 6% | 31 XAUUSD 4% | 23
user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP DAILY
256 3 5
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP DAILY

OK, that was the retest of support (green line). Markets should resume trending up (wave iii) soon. 1600s likely within a couple of weeks (same time or less than it took to form wave i)

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
957 4 7
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

This is an updated chart correcting my dumb mistake. The c wave was an ending diagonal and the whole abc correction was a running flat. Diagonals occur in terminal waves such as fifth waves or in this case a C wave. That is how you can tell the correction is complete.

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: Bitstamp Daily EW Count
150 1 7
BTCUSD, D Long
Bitstamp Daily EW Count

This is a minor update. I've placed wave 2 on MAR 25 showing the correction is a running flat. It makes more sense now because the duration of the wave 2 correction is about 50% of the wave 1 impulse wave which is typical ratio. The three hour chart shows wave (c) was an expanding ending diagonal. Now, the larger trend can resume to ~1900s sometime before June's ...

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily EW Count
305 0 8
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily EW Count

OK, that was the (c) wave. Bullish nested (1)-(2), 1-2, i-ii waves. Next price level is 19xx.

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily EW Count
283 2 12
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily EW Count

Not much has changed from a EW point of view. We are still on track to complete wave 3. Now, the target is even farther up because of this drop. EW is flexible and is able to handle any "shocks". I'm labeling this 61.8% retracement as wave (circle) ii. Next target level for wave (circle) iii is 161.8% of wave one which is about 1944

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily EW Count
645 0 14
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily EW Count

Wave (circle) iii was relatively short compared to wave (circle) i. The usual ratio is 161.8% or higher. So it is highly likely that wave (circle) v will extend. A reasonable target for wave 3 is 1706 for an extended (circle) v; less likely targets: 1915 and 2044.

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily EW Count
539 3 14
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily EW Count

BTCCNY chart seems to be broken so I shall try to count the Bitstamp. Circle iii seems to be underway (~1430)...

user100000 user100000 BTCCNY, D, Long ,
BTCCNY: BTCCNY Daily EW Count
332 0 7
BTCCNY, D Long
BTCCNY Daily EW Count

I've adjusted a few labels to better match the recent price action. Also, I've moved wave (4) farther away to coincide with the ~June cycle low.

user100000 user100000 BTCCNY, D, Long ,
BTCCNY: BTCC EW Daily Count
835 5 6
BTCCNY, D Long
BTCC EW Daily Count

Wave (circle) iii seems to be underway. It will most likely extend (reasonable target of 10396). The move should accelerate soon. It wouldn't surprise me if the market reaches 10K within 10 days.

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long ,
XAUUSD: XAUUSD 4H EW Count
160 1 5
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD 4H EW Count

I believe wave (circle) i is complete. The wave (v) ending diagonal was quite weak but it does satisfy the rules if you look closely and is similar in duration to wave (i). I'm expecting wave (circle) ii to unfold in the next 10 days or so with a target of ~1172 to 1161

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long ,
XAUUSD: XAUUSD 4H EW Count
79 1 2
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD 4H EW Count

An ending diagonal seems quite reasonable for wave (v).

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long ,
XAUUSD: XAUUSD 4H EW Count
90 0 4
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD 4H EW Count

I believe wave (v) is underway since market took out the wave (iii) high. I have a target of 1237 to complete wave (circle) i. If wave (v) does extend we can expect market to touch 1268. (note: there is a chance wave (iv) may not be complete if it's an irregular flat...)

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long ,
XAUUSD: XAUUSD 4H EW Count
100 0 6
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD 4H EW Count

OK, here is my ew count update. I was expecting a much larger expanding leading diagonal, but instead we got a smaller degree diagonal. I almost missed it! and was wondering why the market is melting up. At the moment, wave (iv) seems to be underway. Wave (iii) was 161.8% of (i) which is text book ratio

user100000 user100000 BTCCNY, D, Long ,
BTCCNY: BTCCNY Daily EW Count
847 2 9
BTCCNY, D Long
BTCCNY Daily EW Count

I have changed the label of the recent drop to wave 2 (from wave 4); it fits a wave two personality much more than a wave four. Overall the count is making much more sense now. The market touching a natural support zone which is the blue dashed line: wave iv. See you at 37K ;-)

user100000 user100000 BTCCNY, D, Long ,
BTCCNY: BTCCNY Daily EW Count
194 0 4
BTCCNY, D Long
BTCCNY Daily EW Count

The reason wave 4 "crashed" was because wave v of 3 was an extended wave (261.8% of waves i ~ iii). It is quite normal behavior of wave 4 to retrace ~61.8% of wave 3. I show a couple of times this happens in the past (see blue circles) on 2013-11-20 and 2012-02-16.

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long ,
XAUUSD: XAUUSD 4H EW Count
133 0 6
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD 4H EW Count

Wave (3) is now underway (a strong wave to around 1,900s). The first wave seems to be an expanding leading diagonal. I expect the market to overlap with wave (i) (briefly trading below 1137.17).

user100000 user100000 BTCCNY, D, Long ,
BTCCNY: BTCCNY Daily EW count
785 5 16
BTCCNY, D Long
BTCCNY Daily EW count

Here is my count so far of the sub waves of wave (3). I show an extended wave 3 which seems to be complete. The market is at the moment in a wave 4 correction retracing about 50% of wave 3. Note wave (3) isn't complete yet. After consolidating for some days I expect the market to resume moving higher to ~13K level before the intermediate wave (4) correction begins

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long ,
XAUUSD: XAUUSD Update; Truncated 5th
129 0 5
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD Update; Truncated 5th

There was a very rare wave (v) failure or truncation at 1125.67. I believe wave (3) is now underway starting with a possible leading diagonal. I don't think we will ever see sub 1125.67 again in our lifetime.

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