I think we are under estimating the strength of cycle III. Typically an impulse wave should have at least one extended wave: 1, 3 or 5. Since wave 3 does not appear to be extended (~161.8% of 1 which is typical ratio for a third wave) vs wave 1 we should expect wave 5 to extend. Typically wave 5 extends 100% of the distance traveled by waves 1 and 3. So, depending...
If we have a similar move as the previous primary wave 3 we should top around 164K (see the 61.8% level). Of course, there is no artificial limit to how high wave 3 can top. I believe this is quite reasonable of a target. I estimate in Feb or Mar possibly.
Not financial advice.
This count makes much more sense using the missing older data. Once the market breaks the lower channel line connecting waves 2 and 4 it signals a new cycle is underway (cycle II). See pink highlighted area.
We are in cycle III at this time. It is composed of 5 waves. Primary wave 3 is unfolding right now.
As you can see, this is a multi year bull market. It...
Keep it simple! Let us focus on the most recent impulse wave which started in June. We can assume the 69K top is wave 1 and the recent correction as wave 2. wave 2 may not be over yet but hopefully soon (as a general guide wave two retraces about 62% of 1). So, I am expecting waves 3 and 4 and 5 to complete this impulse wave. I have no idea about the timing, but...
when we have two methods of arriving at similar target we should give it more weight. the level where 1=5 at 127K and the 50% of 1-3 at 130K. i consider this the minimum level to attain during this cycle
another reasonable target level is the 61.8% (of 1-3) at 186K.
above these levels it becomes more speculative. we need some blow off top price action to reach...
Wave V must be shorter than III; below red line. The closest fibonacci target to the ceiling is 310,514. Note the resitance at the mid channel line capping waves circle 1 and circle 3. Once we break above the mid line market should accelerate towards the upper channel.
I've moved wave IV label to 2018 (worst case) just in case my previous count is wrong. The...
wave 3 was a normal size wave (not extended) because it was a typical 161.8% of wave 1 so it is very likely we get an extended 5th wave. extended fifth waves typically travel the net distance of waves one and three. that will take us to 496K (it's actually 506K if there wasn't a limit on wave V < wave III).
One of the most reliable ways to arrive at target levels for the end of wave five is to use the trend based fib extension tool using 38.2% and 61.8% levels. these levels often act as "resistance" and possible topping areas
(using the tool, select 3 points at wave 0, wave III and wave IV)
Target 1 (38.2%) = 123978
Target 2 (61.8%) = 1059056
The problem with...
Here is another count which shows wave (circle) 5 underway since December. It is not unusual for wave two to retrace deeply. Wave three is always at the highest point on the MACD indicator which seems to confirm the (circle) 3 poisition
I estimate 32K for wave (3) in the next few months
I have updated the weekly chart to also show an alternate count (higher degree) in red, but that did not change the market direction nor the magnitude of the move. Both counts show a similar target level of about 90,000 . 50,000 is the target for the more traditional method of calculating a measured move (widest part of the triangle measured at circle 4). As the...
I have updated the chart to show wave iii @ 8421.49. it wasn't a triangle!
Wave iv is nearing completion as it approaches the upper channel. wave four typically retraces 38.2% to 50% of wave three (~9035). that level is where C = A x 1.618 (a good level to end iv). the upper channel should contain the price action
I think we should complete the wave (E) by March 8 or earlier based on the channel. If my 180m wave count is correct, the market should drift lower to complete wave v. At that point, the contracting triangle since December 2017 will be completed . A reasonable target is around 7656 which is 61.8% of i~iii
Wave (D) zigzag (leading diagonal, correction, impulse wave) seems to be complete retracing almost 61% of wave (C).
the green arrow is my high probability target level based on the width of the widest part of the triangle (measured move).
Here is another possibility... Circle 4 has not completed yet (as shown in previous charts) and may actually be a contracting triangle. Waves D and E remain to complete this pattern. A triangle is pattern which appears right before the final move (in this case circle 5)
We can estimate how far circle 5 may climb based on measuring the widest part of the triangle...