user100000

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Last visit Joined 2 years ago
Markets Allocation
94 % cryptocurrency 0 % forex 0 % commodities 5 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 72% | 331 BTCCNY 13% | 61 BITFINEX:BTCUSD 6% | 31 XAUUSD 5% | 23
user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long , 2 days ago
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily EW Count
310 2 10
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily EW Count

BTCCNY chart seems to be broken so I shall try to count the Bitstamp. Circle iii seems to be underway (~1430)...

user100000 user100000 BTCCNY, D, Long , 15 days ago
BTCCNY: BTCCNY Daily EW Count
286 0 6
BTCCNY, D Long
BTCCNY Daily EW Count

I've adjusted a few labels to better match the recent price action. Also, I've moved wave (4) farther away to coincide with the ~June cycle low.

user100000 user100000 BTCCNY, D, Long , 22 days ago
BTCCNY: BTCC EW Daily Count
733 5 5
BTCCNY, D Long
BTCC EW Daily Count

Wave (circle) iii seems to be underway. It will most likely extend (reasonable target of 10396). The move should accelerate soon. It wouldn't surprise me if the market reaches 10K within 10 days.

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long , a month ago
XAUUSD: XAUUSD 4H EW Count
139 1 5
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD 4H EW Count

I believe wave (circle) i is complete. The wave (v) ending diagonal was quite weak but it does satisfy the rules if you look closely and is similar in duration to wave (i). I'm expecting wave (circle) ii to unfold in the next 10 days or so with a target of ~1172 to 1161

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long , a month ago
XAUUSD: XAUUSD 4H EW Count
74 1 2
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD 4H EW Count

An ending diagonal seems quite reasonable for wave (v).

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long , a month ago
XAUUSD: XAUUSD 4H EW Count
82 0 4
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD 4H EW Count

I believe wave (v) is underway since market took out the wave (iii) high. I have a target of 1237 to complete wave (circle) i. If wave (v) does extend we can expect market to touch 1268. (note: there is a chance wave (iv) may not be complete if it's an irregular flat...)

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long , a month ago
XAUUSD: XAUUSD 4H EW Count
94 0 6
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD 4H EW Count

OK, here is my ew count update. I was expecting a much larger expanding leading diagonal, but instead we got a smaller degree diagonal. I almost missed it! and was wondering why the market is melting up. At the moment, wave (iv) seems to be underway. Wave (iii) was 161.8% of (i) which is text book ratio

user100000 user100000 BTCCNY, D, Long , a month ago
BTCCNY: BTCCNY Daily EW Count
818 2 9
BTCCNY, D Long
BTCCNY Daily EW Count

I have changed the label of the recent drop to wave 2 (from wave 4); it fits a wave two personality much more than a wave four. Overall the count is making much more sense now. The market touching a natural support zone which is the blue dashed line: wave iv. See you at 37K ;-)

user100000 user100000 BTCCNY, D, Long , 2 months ago
BTCCNY: BTCCNY Daily EW Count
181 0 4
BTCCNY, D Long
BTCCNY Daily EW Count

The reason wave 4 "crashed" was because wave v of 3 was an extended wave (261.8% of waves i ~ iii). It is quite normal behavior of wave 4 to retrace ~61.8% of wave 3. I show a couple of times this happens in the past (see blue circles) on 2013-11-20 and 2012-02-16.

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long , 2 months ago
XAUUSD: XAUUSD 4H EW Count
125 0 6
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD 4H EW Count

Wave (3) is now underway (a strong wave to around 1,900s). The first wave seems to be an expanding leading diagonal. I expect the market to overlap with wave (i) (briefly trading below 1137.17).

user100000 user100000 BTCCNY, D, Long , 2 months ago
BTCCNY: BTCCNY Daily EW count
763 3 15
BTCCNY, D Long
BTCCNY Daily EW count

Here is my count so far of the sub waves of wave (3). I show an extended wave 3 which seems to be complete. The market is at the moment in a wave 4 correction retracing about 50% of wave 3. Note wave (3) isn't complete yet. After consolidating for some days I expect the market to resume moving higher to ~13K level before the intermediate wave (4) correction begins

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long , 2 months ago
XAUUSD: XAUUSD Update; Truncated 5th
119 0 5
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD Update; Truncated 5th

There was a very rare wave (v) failure or truncation at 1125.67. I believe wave (3) is now underway starting with a possible leading diagonal. I don't think we will ever see sub 1125.67 again in our lifetime.

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long , 2 months ago
XAUUSD: XAUUSD update
120 0 6
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD update

I believe wave (iv) is "in". Wave (v) is unfolding at the moment. Targets: 1120 to 1101 (if wave (v) extends)

user100000 user100000 BTCCNY, D, Long , 2 months ago
BTCCNY: Primary Wave 3 underway
351 0 8
BTCCNY, D Long
Primary Wave 3 underway

Bitcoin seems to prefer to trend within a curve. Note how wave (1) only required drawing a small arc to contain all the price action. However, in order to contain the recent price action, wave (3), I had to draw a much bigger arc to best fit the curve to the recent price action. The straight line which intersects the arc and vertical line is there to show the top ...

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long , 2 months ago
XAUUSD: Wave Y count update
162 0 7
XAUUSD, 240 Long
Wave Y count update

Here is my latest count of wave Y (three wave structure; ABC). Two impulse waves separated by a B wave triangle. I'm expecting the market to dip to around 1105 before the start of wave (3) to all time highs.

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, W, Long , 2 months ago
BTCUSD: Bitcoin cycle
660 1 7
BTCUSD, W Long
Bitcoin cycle

Nothing much has changed in the cycles chart. The market seems to be slowly melting up right on time. Please note the cycles chart doesn't show any substantial correction developing until april to may time frame (see green curve). I found it best to use elliott wave analysis together with hurst cycle analysis to get a better feel for the market.

user100000 user100000 XAUUSD, 240, Long , 2 months ago
XAUUSD: XAUUSD
107 0 7
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD

Looking closer at the Y wave. The drop to 1156 from the trump spike seems to be a three wave structure. The first wave is a normal impulse pattern (note how useful the channel can be by containing the same degree waves within the parallel lines) followed by a brief b wave correction and an ending diagonal (hinting the end of the correction). The larger degree wave ...

user100000 user100000 BTCCNY, M, Long , 3 months ago
BTCCNY: General overview (monthly)
1140 2 8
BTCCNY, M Long
General overview (monthly)

I have included three different wave degrees to show more clearly where the market is trading at this moment in time

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