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BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 73% | 356 BTCCNY 12% | 61 BITFINEX:BTCUSD 6% | 31 XAUUSD 4% | 23
user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
244 0 13
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

Wave 5 seems to be unfolding into an ending diagonal. It is more likely that not since wave 3 was an extended wave.

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
1090 2 13
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

The market found natural support at wave iv of one lesser degree (see purple dashed line). This confirms the wave 4 count at least to me. Note there is nothing unusual about this wave 4 correction. Wave fours typically retrace 38.2% to 50% of wave 3 which in this case it did retrace 50% of wave 3; a typical wave four correction. The wave 5 target is now lowered at ...

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
375 0 7
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

OK, this wave 4 correction seems to be a flat with the b wave as the triangle. The c wave seems to have found support at 61.8% of wave a. The target for wave 5 is now lowered to ~3586 if the recent low holds otherwise need to update this in future. (If wave 5 extends, ~4546). Note if using EWA the channel is expanded farther out to the right to contain the price ...

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily (Quick update!)
442 3 12
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily (Quick update!)

I just realised the market was still in wave c of the triangle. Wave d and e need to unfold before completing the wave 4 correction (D'oh!). Some more sideways price action before the start of wave 5. The market should bounce off the lower line golden channel or start moving higher before the touch

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
630 3 17
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

Wave e of the triangle did overshoot (moved beyond the a-c line) which does typically happen. There is not much room for more downside so I'm assuming wave e is already "in." The overshooting did affect the final wave 5 target. It is now somewhat lower at 3919

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
314 2 11
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

It's possible wave e of the triangle may have already ended at 2522 (see intraday chart) which completes the wave 4 triangle correction. If that is the case, the market is already in the early stages of wave 5. I have a target of 4076 for a "normal" wave 5 by ~ 2017-09-28. (5036 if wave 5 extends)

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
368 0 14
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

I believe the d wave of the triangle is underway. Note the e wave will most likely touch the pink dashed line which is the a-c line extended upwards.

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
888 3 12
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

I've updated the triangle to reflect the most recent price action. I will update the wave 5 target once the triangle is complete and wave e is "in". The gray dashed channel line will also need to be repositioned to the actual end point of wave 4 to better estimate the end of wave 5 (timing).

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
377 0 12
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

I wanted to show that triangles can form many different shapes and sizes and are difficult to predict at such an early stage. The B wave could even go beyond the start of wave A (a running triangle).

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
616 1 13
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

I've bought bitcoin during this drop because it retraced 38.2% of wave 3 which is good enough for me and is the typical level for a wave four retracement. I'm not sure what kind of correction is developing but often we see a contracting triangle unfold at this stage of the impulse wave. Or it could be some other combination of WXY nobody can predict as it's too ...

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
677 1 15
BTCUSD, D
BITSTAMP Daily

OK, I believe wave 3 is "in." When the market took out 2612.50 (pink line) we can assume the uptrend is over because the 5th sub wave cannot move below the 4th sub wave. The final five wave impulse pattern at that point was completed. The wave 4 correction should take longer than circle wave ii and circle wave iv corrections combined; a minimum of 18 days but ...

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
696 1 10
BTCUSD, D
BITSTAMP Daily

I'm starting to think the wave circle iv ended at 1850 (perfect touch of lower channel) and wave circle v is unfolding at the moment with a target of 3091. I believe we have run out of time for the market to dip below 1850 and the channeling isn't exactly helping either for such an outcome. Staying out of the market for now and will join back during the wave 4 ...

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
374 0 9
BTCUSD, D
BITSTAMP Daily

Assuming the circled purple area is not a running flat as previously labeled i.e. this could be an extension where it subdivides again into 1-2 of smaller degree. This could give us more upside potential being that wave 3 has not completed yet. The intraday day chart (4H) shows the first wave down as a leading diagonal (a) where wave one and four overlap. I ...

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
1415 3 18
BTCUSD, D
BITSTAMP Daily

I think wave 3 is "in" or close to being complete. This is a good level to be cautious (261.8% of wave 1). Wave (circle) v did extend so I'm expecting the market to correct back to ~1640 (sub wave two of v is the usual target). That's typical of what happens after a fifth wave extends.

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
356 2 6
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

there is a possibility that wave (circle) v is extending too. this is rare situation where two waves in an impulse extends but it does happen. if it does extend the likely target is 100% of waves i~iii which is around 2600+ (see pink arrows). it is quite close to where wave 3 is 261.8% of wave 1 which is "classic" extended ratio for an extended wave 3 so it ...

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
368 0 10
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

OK, that wasn't an ending diagonal as previously suggested because the recent move up is already larger than the first leg up. I have moved the extended wave (circle) iii higher to 1892. Wave (circle) v is unfolding at the moment with a target of 2219 which is textbook 61.8% of waves i~iii. Wave (circle) v is unlikely to extend because wave (circle) iii was an ...

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
331 0 7
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

Wave (circle) v may be an ending diagonal? each leg looks to have a 3 wave structure looking at the shorter time frames...

user100000 user100000 BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BITSTAMP Daily
286 3 11
BTCUSD, D Long
BITSTAMP Daily

Wave (circle) iv was a very brief contracting triangle (1525; see a 4Hr chart). The sub waves of wave 3 (i, ii, iii, iv) point to a likely target of 1977 for wave v which is 61.8% of waves i~iii and at the same time the higher degree waves also target have a similar price level target of 1982 which is 161.8% of wave 1. When both waves of different degrees point ...

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