Here is another count which shows wave (circle) 5 underway since December. It is not unusual for wave two to retrace deeply. Wave three is always at the highest point on the MACD indicator which seems to confirm the (circle) 3 poisition
I estimate 32K for wave (3) in the next few months
I have updated the weekly chart to also show an alternate count (higher degree) in red, but that did not change the market direction nor the magnitude of the move. Both counts show a similar target level of about 90,000 . 50,000 is the target for the more traditional method of calculating a measured move (widest part of the triangle measured at circle 4). As the...
I have updated the chart to show wave iii @ 8421.49. it wasn't a triangle!
Wave iv is nearing completion as it approaches the upper channel. wave four typically retraces 38.2% to 50% of wave three (~9035). that level is where C = A x 1.618 (a good level to end iv). the upper channel should contain the price action
I think we should complete the wave (E) by March 8 or earlier based on the channel. If my 180m wave count is correct, the market should drift lower to complete wave v. At that point, the contracting triangle since December 2017 will be completed . A reasonable target is around 7656 which is 61.8% of i~iii
Wave (D) zigzag (leading diagonal, correction, impulse wave) seems to be complete retracing almost 61% of wave (C).
the green arrow is my high probability target level based on the width of the widest part of the triangle (measured move).
Here is another possibility... Circle 4 has not completed yet (as shown in previous charts) and may actually be a contracting triangle. Waves D and E remain to complete this pattern. A triangle is pattern which appears right before the final move (in this case circle 5)
We can estimate how far circle 5 may climb based on measuring the widest part of the triangle...
Just a small update... each wave of an ending diagonal subdivides into a zigzag abc or wxy. Wave (2) seems to be wxy type wave. Wave (3) may also subdivide into a wxy
another hint this pattern may be an ending diagonal is wave (1) itself seems to have three sub waves (abc) which is required for an ending diagonal (each wave a zigzag or wxy)
Another possible pattern we should consider is the ending diagonal which occur in fifth waves. each leg up will be shorter than the previous one. it makes sense in this case becuase of the longer duration of wave (2), but a normal impulse wave is still possible if the market exceeds the length of wave (1)
Wave one and five are often similar in duration in general. In this case, I would be cautious by late September (42 weeks).
It seems we are in the early stages of wave (1). I expect strength as wave 3 unfolds in the coming weeks. We only have three impulse waves to work with ((1), (3), (5)) so it should be quite volatile I would imagine in order to meet the 80K+ target
Here is a weekly chart. I find it not as distracting as the daily. The green area is where the market is finding natural support which is at the previous wave 4 of one lesser degree (see small arrow). The C wave seems to be ending around these levels.
The situation now is similar to what happened during the cycle I in 2013. At the time, primary 4 retraced more than 78.6% of primary wave 3 at the start of its correction (triangle). We now have it in reverse with the deepest retracement occuring at the end of a WXY correction. History repeating...