WTI suffered its worst day in 30 yesterday, with a combination of a stronger US dollar, recession concerns and weaker natural gas prices all playing their part for a bearish session. A bearish outside day formed which markets a double top around $81.20, daily volume was above average (and its highest in 14 days) which adds weigh to the bearish reversal candle....
We see a technical case for EUR/GBP to top out over the near-term, which could be helped if Germany deliver a soft inflation report today. The baulk of today’s economic data is from Germany, with employment data at 08:55 GMT then inflation at 13:00. UK manufacturing PMI is scheduled for 09:30, then manufacturing PMI data is then released for Canada and the US at...
USD/JPY fell around -12% from its October high to December low, but is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal.
USD/JPY managed to hold above the 133.62 low and formed a higher low with a Doji, which is part of a 3-bar bullish reversal pattern (Morning Star Reversal). The 200-day EMA is also providing support. Prices have fully recovered the losses...
An interesting setup may have formed on the FTSE 100 daily chart. It has seen a strong rally from its October low and since produced a relatively shallow pullback from the 7600 resistance zone. The RSI (2) was oversold on Thursday and curled higher on Friday, which closed the day with a Spinning Top Doji candle to suggest a swing ow has formed. Furthermore, the...
The US dollar is trying to form a base following its false break of the August low. Whilst it saw a daily close beneath the key level on Friday 2nd December, a bullish engulfing candle formed the following day. Furthermore, a higher low formed on Friday with a Spinning top Doji and held above the August low, and momentum is pointing higher today. So if this week’s...
The jury is out over whether a bear-market rally has topped, or last week’s decline is simply a pullback ahead of its next break higher. Yet the turn of momentum at a key resistance cluster suggests bears are regaining control.
The S&P 500 had its most bearish week in 5 as its rally stalled at the 50-week MEA, trend resistance, a 161.8% Fibonacci ratio and the...
USD/JPY remains within a bullish trend on the daily chart, although prices have retraced -9.4% from its 24-year high. Prices have held above the 137.70 area and produced a double bottom pattern, with a bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator. Two small bullish hammers have also formed to suggest the markets is trying to form a swing low. The bias remains...
The China A50 has rallied over 13% since the October low and has since retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. An elongated bullish Pinbar formed yesterday which shows strong demand around the bullish engulfing candle and marking a potential swing low within a bullish retracement channel. We are now looking for a break above 12,350 to assume bullish continuation...
A bearish outside candle has formed on the daily chart, which is part of a double top at the 1.0482 high. The candle also has a large upper which to suggest strong supply at those highs, and a bearish divergence has also formed on the RSI (14). We are now looking for prices to retrace towards 1.0200 as part of a countertrend move, near the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
If the RBNZ hike by 75bp tomorrow in line with the consensus, it will be their first hike of this magnitude on record. It would also mean they have to upgrade their terminal rate of their OCR projection, which could be deemed as a hawkish hike by markets and send NZD higher against other currencies. Of course, this also leaves the Kiwi dollar to weakness should...
The DAX entered a technical bull market on Tuesday by closing just over 20% higher from its September low. I have lost count the amount of times I have seen a market pull back from the 20% threshold (which is based on no logic that I can see, other than being a nice round number) – so that is just the first clue that the DAX could pull back further.
But we also...
The stock has been performing well ahead of its earnings reports, thanks to the news that DBS will be the bank to utilise MaxxDigital – a digital asset platform that provides risk and FX solutions for institutions. Whilst Singapore’s regulators continue to clamp down on crypto trading for retailers, Singapore wants to become a digital-asset hub within the...
EUR/AUD has caught my eye for a potential long. It posted a solid rally form the August low and entered a retracement phase, so at some point looking for it to turn higher. A potential bull flag is forming on the daily chart, and Friday’s spike lower shows a (failed) attempt to drive the market lower, where is found support at the July (close) high. Yesterday’s...
The US dollar was falling ahead of the midterm elections in anticipation of a Republican Senate and / or House. As the Dems have performed better than expected, we have seen a reversal of these pre-emptive moves on the eve of the US inflation report.
Expectations are for core CPI to soften (slightly) - but what if it doesn't? Inflation elsewhere continues to...
What a difference a week (or in this case, a single CPI report) can make.
Last week we were bullish on the dollar index due to the cluster of support levels nearby, and expectations for inflation to exceed estimates. Clearly, the fundamentals of a much softer CPI report made minced meat of the support zone and sent the dollar index lower, during its worst week...
The Aussie fell to below the 0.6300 target zone yesterday (marked by last week's VPOC - or volume point of control)
With the RBA's quarterly MPS (monetary policy statement) and retail sales released at today at 11:30 AEDT, perhaps upgraded inflation forecasts can give the Aussie a bump higher. But whilst prices remain beneath the monthly pivot point, such bounces...
AUD/JPY is one of those currency pairs that can chop around for periods of time, then one day switches on the momentum. And I suspect the market has tipped its hand to a downside move with yesterday’s bearish candle.
A resistance zone formed in April between 94.24 - 95.75 in April, where breaks above it have ultimately failed and the resistance zone gets...
