On Friday the euro tried (but failed) to close below the ‘pandemic low’, instead closing the day with a bullish hammer candle. It also closed back above the 50-day EMA and has continued to hold above it during Asian trade. Given the fact the US is on a public holiday and data is light, we see the potential for range trading – which means bulls may be tempted to enter around the range lows and see if it can get back up to 1.800.
Trade closed: stop reached:
The answer is a resounding no, as momentum has clearly turned lower and breached our invalidation point without even a minor attempt at moving higher. FOMC wins.
