Market analysis from ThinkMarkets
Ethereum ETFs have recently seen significant inflows, outpacing Bitcoin ETFs, just ahead of the upcoming Fusaka upgrade in November. Ethereum recently broke above its previous record high, a move that was anticipated in earlier analysis, and is pulling back before shooting higher. For a sustained move higher, a strong breakout with increased volume and momentum...
France faces a pivotal confidence vote that could shake up the CAC 40 and broader European markets. We break down the political crisis, market risks, and actionable trading scenarios with technical levels. Big news is breaking out of France as Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a crucial confidence vote, with major implications for the CAC 40 index and the...
Markets are optimistic and consolidating ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with EUR/USD poised for a breakout, plus a quick technical overview of gold, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Mood : Buoyant—risk assets and equities are near weekly highs, bond yields are easing. Consensus : A "Goldilocks" NFP (not too hot, not too cold) is expected, supporting a 25bp...
The Pound is under heavy pressure, trading around 1.3382 after falling below the critical 1.3400 mark. The trend is bearish, with price action contained in a downward channel and repeated failures to break key resistance levels. Fundamental Drivers UK Gilt Yields : 30-year yields have surged to their highest since 1998, raising concerns about the...
In today’s video, we break down the major market moves triggered by the July US CPI report. Headline CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month—right in line with expectations and a slowdown from the previous month. Year-over-year, headline inflation came in at 2.7%, just under the 2.8% forecast, while Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (matching forecasts) but was a bit hotter at 3.1%...
The FTSE 100 has surged to a new all-time high, defying expectations after UK inflation surprised to the upside at 3.8%. This resilience can be attributed to renewed global interest in undervalued UK stocks, particularly defensives, as investors anticipate a potential end to the BOE’s easing cycle in 2025 due to persistent price pressures. The market remains...
In this video, we analyse the sharp move in the USDJPY following crucial speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell signalled the possibility of a September rate hike, highlighting ongoing weakness in the US labour market. Meanwhile, Ueda emphasised Japan's strong job market, supported by immigrant...
Gold and silver are making headlines as both metals surge amid a mix of macroeconomic and technical factors. Gold is trading just below its all-time record, having recently touched $3,495 per ounce, while silver has soared to a 14-year high of above $40.50. The main catalyst behind this rally is growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates...
Nvidia delivered another strong quarter, beating expectations on both revenue and EPS. However, shares dropped after hours to around $175, as data centre revenue narrowly missed forecasts and China sales remained absent due to regulatory uncertainty. Technically, if NVDA breaks below $175, bears may target the $170 double bottom support in a dead-cat-bounce...
WTI oil prices have dropped from $65 to around $62.80 as markets react to new US tariffs on India, triggered by India’s ongoing oil trade with Russia. These tariffs, along with threats of even higher tariffs on China, are weighing on global demand and pushing oil prices lower. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil production has hit multi-year highs, adding more supply to the...
Traders are laser-focused on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which could prove to be the most significant market-moving event ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium if Powell offers no insights. With markets already pricing in an 85% chance of a rate cut at the September meeting, the tone and details within the minutes will be crucial. The last FOMC meeting...
EURUSD has broken below the key 1.16 support ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, raising the stakes for both bulls and bears as markets become more aware of the likelihood of a hawkish stance. But will it be the case? Let's see what the possible scenarios are at play. Bearish Catalysts : Hawkish Fed Signals: Recent FOMC minutes and a potential hawkish tone...
In this video, we break down what the highly anticipated Trump-Putin talks could mean for the EUR/USD pair. The meeting is set for 21:30 CET, after markets close, so any immediate reaction may happen when they reopen. Key scenarios include: Positive Tone: If Trump and Putin get along, risk appetite could rise, but a potential Ukraine peace deal may reduce EU...
The BOE faces a pivotal moment as it prepares to announce its latest interest rate decision. With MPC members split between hawkish concerns about stubborn inflation and dovish worries over a weakening job market, expectations are swirling about the path forward. Will the BOE signal a pause after this cut, or will inflation surprises force a more cautious,...
Bitcoin is up 10% in August, driven by strong ETF inflows and a game-changing executive order allowing 401(k) retirement funds to invest in cryptocurrencies, potentially bringing trillions of dollars into the sector. Technically, Bitcoin and Ethereum are breaking out toward multi-year highs, with BTC leading and ETH close behind—setting the stage for a possible...
Oil prices could drop if Trump backs down on tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, but short-term bullish catalysts, like geopolitical tensions and bullish speculative bets, may still push prices up before longer-term headwinds take...
EURUSD has finally broken below the key 1.15 level, triggering a move lower in line with earlier expectations. The drop follows the US imposing fresh tariffs on European goods, a move that traditionally strengthens the currency of the tariff-imposing nation. Supporting the dollar further, the latest ADP and GDP reports came in stronger than forecast, while the...
Oil prices have climbed around 6% this week, driven by two key developments: a trade deal between the EU and the US, and Donald Trump’s warning that the US may impose sanctions on Russian oil buyers within 10 days unless progress is made toward ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia accounts for about 10.5% of global oil production. Major buyers like China and...