Moving forward, we are now going to focus on high spikes above 96.5, which correlate to a sell signal on the NVT . As you can see, in March of 2013, we had an reading above 96.5, as well as a red sell signal on the NVT . Those two signals combined, on the weekly chart, called the exact top of the move. From there, Bitcoin entered a 75.81% correction.
Again, in November of 2013, Bitcoin printed an reading above 96.5, while simultaneously printing a red sell signal on the NVT . Those two signals combined occurred at the exact top AGAIN! That was in 2013. We haven't seen this happen again, since November of 2013. Fast forward to today, and we are seeing the exact same signal. The NVT is flashing a red sell signal, while the is above the 96.5 level. Historically, these signals have occurred at exact tops, and I believe that we could have topped out here too.
However, I want to take this even furhter. Because, honestly, this entire rally hasn't made sense to me from an analytical perspective. First off, Bitcoin blasted through what should have been enormous resistance in the 6000 range, like it didn't even exist. Secondly, Bitcoin hasn't yet touched the bottom of the rising blue arch. Now, I know that it isn't something that HAS to happen, and that Bitcoin very well could morph away from this arch that it has held for it's entire existence, but it would have been more fitting if we would have or will touch the bottom of the arch. Also, the cyclicality of Bitcoin is perfectly linear, which is something that I have talked about at length in the past. That linear cyclicality suggests that we should see an absolute low closer to October. This is because the market cycles are increasing over time. So, for Bitcoin to just enter a bull market here, that would violate the increasing duration of it's market cycles. Not to mention the fact that we have these huge historical sell signals in the background.
Now, I have put some thought into what could possibly produce an organic bull market, while deviating from the aforementioned data the Bitcoin has produced thus far. My conclusion, is simply that if this is the beginning of an organic bull market, the massive influx of institutional investors, , quant trading desks, high frequency trading, artificial intelligence, and everything else that is new to this space, is possibly forcing Bitcoin to deviate from the beautiful technical pattern that it has printed so far. I've been analyzing charts for over a decade, and I have never seen an asset that has cyclical expansion that is totally linear. None other than Bitcoin . Yet, Bitcoin's expansion is exactly linear, and if this is the beginning of a bull market, it is breaking that exact linear expansion. I'm probably losing some of you here.
I definitely think we will see a severe pullback very soon. Also, I think there is a high probability that the top is in, based on some of the action I am seeing on the smaller timeframes. We can't ignore the epic sell signals that I have shown in this analysis. As you can see, if Bitcoin corrects down to the bottom of the blue arch, it would incur a near 70% fall. Everyone is extremely , filled with greed, irrationally exuberant, and those are all bad signs. Those are the reasons why I don't trust the notion that the bull market is beginning. If it corrects down to the 50 , or the 6000 level, and holds that as support, then we will see. But right now, I see extremely accurate indicators and sell signals that tell a different story.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
" That linear cyclicality suggests .." linear in conjunction with cyclic .. (facepalm)
Here are some pointers for your next study-day: Logarithm - Exponentiation - S-curve (aka adoption-curve) + then read up on Bitcoins inner workings (e.g. 'halvening')
Fearmongering bombastic rubbish, as usual
For any noobs out there, be careful what "ideas" you read here on TradingView. There's zero quality control on who gets a "top" badge on TradingView, so don't get lulled into a false sense that these people *must* know what they're talking about.
I'm making no judgement about this post itself. I've no idea if the market is going up, down or sideways. All I do is practice careful trades and always use a stop loss.