Don't Miss This! The Bull Market May Not Have Begun! BITCOIN!
Here's why this whole rally could be a huge fake out, instead of a real start to the bull market! In front of you, I have the weekly Bitcoin chart. In this study, I have compared the signals given by the weekly money flow index (MFI) and the weekly network value / transactions (NVT.) Starting from the left side of the chart, you can see that there was a massive spike that pushed the MFI above the horizontal red trendline. That happened around Late May of 2011. Unfortunately, at that time, there was no NVT signal to compare. However, we can see that the greatly overbought MFI happened at the exact top, and a 93.48% correction followed.
Moving forward, we are now going to focus on high MFI spikes above 96.5, which correlate to a sell signal on the NVT. As you can see, in March of 2013, we had an MFI reading above 96.5, as well as a red sell signal on the NVT. Those two signals combined, on the weekly chart, called the exact top of the move. From there, Bitcoin entered a 75.81% correction.
Again, in November of 2013, Bitcoin printed an MFI reading above 96.5, while simultaneously printing a red sell signal on the NVT. Those two signals combined occurred at the exact top AGAIN! That was in 2013. We haven't seen this happen again, since November of 2013. Fast forward to today, and we are seeing the exact same signal. The NVT is flashing a red sell signal, while the MFI is above the 96.5 level. Historically, these signals have occurred at exact tops, and I believe that we could have topped out here too.
However, I want to take this even furhter. Because, honestly, this entire rally hasn't made sense to me from an analytical perspective. First off, Bitcoin blasted through what should have been enormous resistance in the 6000 range, like it didn't even exist. Secondly, Bitcoin hasn't yet touched the bottom of the rising blue arch. Now, I know that it isn't something that HAS to happen, and that Bitcoin very well could morph away from this arch that it has held for it's entire existence, but it would have been more fitting if we would have or will touch the bottom of the arch. Also, the cyclicality of Bitcoin is perfectly linear, which is something that I have talked about at length in the past. That linear cyclicality suggests that we should see an absolute low closer to October. This is because the market cycles are increasing over time. So, for Bitcoin to just enter a bull market here, that would violate the increasing duration of it's market cycles. Not to mention the fact that we have these huge historical sell signals in the background.
Now, I have put some thought into what could possibly produce an organic bull market, while deviating from the aforementioned data the Bitcoin has produced thus far. My conclusion, is simply that if this is the beginning of an organic bull market, the massive influx of institutional investors, futures, quant trading desks, high frequency trading, artificial intelligence, and everything else that is new to this space, is possibly forcing Bitcoin to deviate from the beautiful technical pattern that it has printed so far. I've been analyzing charts for over a decade, and I have never seen an asset that has cyclical expansion that is totally linear. None other than Bitcoin. Yet, Bitcoin's expansion is exactly linear, and if this is the beginning of a bull market, it is breaking that exact linear expansion. I'm probably losing some of you here.
I definitely think we will see a severe pullback very soon. Also, I think there is a high probability that the top is in, based on some of the action I am seeing on the smaller timeframes. We can't ignore the epic sell signals that I have shown in this analysis. As you can see, if Bitcoin corrects down to the bottom of the blue arch, it would incur a near 70% fall. Everyone is extremely bullish, filled with greed, irrationally exuberant, and those are all bad signs. Those are the reasons why I don't trust the notion that the bull market is beginning. If it corrects down to the 50 EMA, or the 6000 level, and holds that as support, then we will see. But right now, I see extremely accurate indicators and sell signals that tell a different story.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Moving forward, we are now going to focus on high MFI spikes above 96.5, which correlate to a sell signal on the NVT. As you can see, in March of 2013, we had an MFI reading above 96.5, as well as a red sell signal on the NVT. Those two signals combined, on the weekly chart, called the exact top of the move. From there, Bitcoin entered a 75.81% correction.
Again, in November of 2013, Bitcoin printed an MFI reading above 96.5, while simultaneously printing a red sell signal on the NVT. Those two signals combined occurred at the exact top AGAIN! That was in 2013. We haven't seen this happen again, since November of 2013. Fast forward to today, and we are seeing the exact same signal. The NVT is flashing a red sell signal, while the MFI is above the 96.5 level. Historically, these signals have occurred at exact tops, and I believe that we could have topped out here too.
However, I want to take this even furhter. Because, honestly, this entire rally hasn't made sense to me from an analytical perspective. First off, Bitcoin blasted through what should have been enormous resistance in the 6000 range, like it didn't even exist. Secondly, Bitcoin hasn't yet touched the bottom of the rising blue arch. Now, I know that it isn't something that HAS to happen, and that Bitcoin very well could morph away from this arch that it has held for it's entire existence, but it would have been more fitting if we would have or will touch the bottom of the arch. Also, the cyclicality of Bitcoin is perfectly linear, which is something that I have talked about at length in the past. That linear cyclicality suggests that we should see an absolute low closer to October. This is because the market cycles are increasing over time. So, for Bitcoin to just enter a bull market here, that would violate the increasing duration of it's market cycles. Not to mention the fact that we have these huge historical sell signals in the background.
Now, I have put some thought into what could possibly produce an organic bull market, while deviating from the aforementioned data the Bitcoin has produced thus far. My conclusion, is simply that if this is the beginning of an organic bull market, the massive influx of institutional investors, futures, quant trading desks, high frequency trading, artificial intelligence, and everything else that is new to this space, is possibly forcing Bitcoin to deviate from the beautiful technical pattern that it has printed so far. I've been analyzing charts for over a decade, and I have never seen an asset that has cyclical expansion that is totally linear. None other than Bitcoin. Yet, Bitcoin's expansion is exactly linear, and if this is the beginning of a bull market, it is breaking that exact linear expansion. I'm probably losing some of you here.
I definitely think we will see a severe pullback very soon. Also, I think there is a high probability that the top is in, based on some of the action I am seeing on the smaller timeframes. We can't ignore the epic sell signals that I have shown in this analysis. As you can see, if Bitcoin corrects down to the bottom of the blue arch, it would incur a near 70% fall. Everyone is extremely bullish, filled with greed, irrationally exuberant, and those are all bad signs. Those are the reasons why I don't trust the notion that the bull market is beginning. If it corrects down to the 50 EMA, or the 6000 level, and holds that as support, then we will see. But right now, I see extremely accurate indicators and sell signals that tell a different story.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Comment:
Many people are commenting like I am saying that the bull market is DEFINITELY not on. I never said anything like that, and if people would read more than just the title of the analysis, they would probably understand that. Hell, even the title says "the bull market MAY NOT have begun." It doesn't say, "This is DEFINITELY NOT a bull market." See the difference? People love to take my words out of context. Either that, or they simply fail to realize the original context to begin with, probably because they don't even read the analyses.