I've seen alot of analyses lately and I cannot but say how bizzare people are with their technicals, so here I am, not trying to deceive anyone, but simply present the most objective outlook on the situation right now.
First and foremost, I would want to present the thing many people are not seeing. The recent pump that we had 10 days ago, was a change of behaviour from the past 2-3 months, we've broken out of series of lower lows with great volume, which took us all the the way up above 200SMA and more importantly, we did break the series of lower volume bars to the upside, which is change of behaviour and is suggesting we actually might be on something.
Looking at the monthly, we can see the 10SMA last month freshly crossed above the 21ema, which is bullish and does indicate further upside on higher timeframes and suggests overall trend. Remember, the last time we've had this cross was in 2016 when the bullmarket took us all the way up to 2017 ATH. And that is something I would pay close attention to, if we manage to stay above it in the next few months we could confirm this as a start of bullmarket.
Looking at the weekly... it is kind of shaky I must say. If we don't get another move up above 9450 by the end (which is still resistance from june where we established support in that descending triangle) of the week, we would confirm this as a lower high once again in the overall bearish trend, which would be bad, so we basically have around 36 hours or less to break above that horizontal resistance line to actually not confirm this as lower high. Kicking above the resistance on weekend would mean that CME is closed and this would only create another gap, which we would probably have to feel in the near future and that could have an impact on overall bullish trend.
If we take a look at the weekly stoch..
...we can see that basically each time stoch had a fresh cross to the upside from its bottom, this was usually a call of 30-40% moves to the upside...you could basically trade stoch blindly for the past 2 years and you would very much be in profit right now. It has been a great indicator and recently we've made a fresh cross to the upside once again from the very bottom. Looking simply from that standpoint alone I could blindly guess we do have more upside ahead and the recent 40% pump doesn't really imply expiration of the cross, simply by looking at last 6 major crosses to the upside. The last one which confirmed a higher low at the 3000$ bottom has basically taken the price all the way up to 14000$. I am not saying we would make another 350% move increase, im just implying what could happen if history rhymes.
The 200 daily has always shown great indication of overall trend, when we're below we're generally bearish, above generally bullish. And since we are still above I cannot do anything else here but to remain bullish, breaking on 12h below, would mean we've lost the 200, market sentiment would change, buyers would be gone and probably sellers would step in once again, breaking below it once again would indicate a prolonged bear market and simply for the fact that we've just recently broken above it, breaking below it again would be extremely bearish because it shows that the buying volume we've had wasn't enough to redirect the overall trend, 200sma was major resistance and dipping below it once again would mean nothing but weakness. However we've not yet done that, we're still trending above and although we touched it today few times already (it is around 9160 right now), we constantly got rejected off of it.
Looking at the 4h we can see that we formed a bullish pennant and we are right at the bottom of breaking it to the downside which is also where the 200simple is and that alone tells me support is quite strong there but ofcourse not unbreakable, in fact the longer the bulls wait the higher the chance we would break down rather then up. Indecisiveness has never shown strength in this market. What could happen though is that we hold this lower side of pennant and actually slowly continue moving up towards resistance which would now be at around 9350 dollars and just range between lower and upper side of the pennant until finally breaking out sometime tomorrow evening or tomorrow night.
One more thing which seems quite important to me is a 3day stoch which has recently broken out of series of lower highs and is expanding to the upside without any signs of curvature yet and its probably the one thing that could take the breakout the the upside rather than downside
As long as we remain above 200simple MA I am biased to the upside, I am bullish, but sitting on support for prolonged period of time with no buyers coming back would make me change my bias to the downside again. Breaking below 9100 on 4h closure would probably make me bearish once again and go short all the way down to 8500, probably a bounce there and then over longer period of time continuation to low 8thousands, high 7 thousands once again.
Cheers
First and foremost, I would want to present the thing many people are not seeing. The recent pump that we had 10 days ago, was a change of behaviour from the past 2-3 months, we've broken out of series of lower lows with great volume, which took us all the the way up above 200SMA and more importantly, we did break the series of lower volume bars to the upside, which is change of behaviour and is suggesting we actually might be on something.
If we take a look at the weekly stoch..
One more thing which seems quite important to me is a 3day stoch which has recently broken out of series of lower highs and is expanding to the upside without any signs of curvature yet and its probably the one thing that could take the breakout the the upside rather than downside
As long as we remain above 200simple MA I am biased to the upside, I am bullish, but sitting on support for prolonged period of time with no buyers coming back would make me change my bias to the downside again. Breaking below 9100 on 4h closure would probably make me bearish once again and go short all the way down to 8500, probably a bounce there and then over longer period of time continuation to low 8thousands, high 7 thousands once again.
Cheers