Deleveraging done, waiting for a 116k confirmation

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Market Overview
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BTC recovered a chunk of Friday’s wipeout and is ranging back below 116k, with leverage reset and volatility still elevated.

• Momentum: 📈 Technical rebound but still a range under 116k; upside needs a clean reclaim above 116k.
  
• Key levels:
  - Resistances (STF/MTF): 115.8–116.2k (pivot) • 119.9–120.5k • 124–126k (HTF).
  - Supports (STF/HTF): 114.0–114.3k • 110.8–111.5k (pivot cluster) • 108.8–109.0k.
  
• Volumes: Very high on 4H/6H during capitulation, only moderate on 1D so far.
  
• Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H filter is Up, while 6H→1H sit in NEUTRE VENTE until 116k is reclaimed; 15m ticks NEUTRE ACHAT only for execution.
  
• Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Overall NEUTRE VENTE — it contradicts the HTF bullish filter and argues for patience under 116k.
  

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Trading Playbook
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Primary stance: higher-timeframe bullish, but capped under 116k — stay progressive and let price confirm.

• Global bias: Cautious bullish above 111k with validation >116k; swing invalidation on a daily close <111k.
  
• Opportunities:
  - Buy breakout: Go long on 4H/2H close >116.2k targeting 117.8k then 119.9–120.5k.
  - Breakout add-on: Add if 118–120k flips to support (pullback holds) toward 122k.
  - Tactical sell: Short clean rejections at 115.8–116.2k or loss of 114k, targeting 112.5k/111.1k.
  
• Risk zones / invalidations:
  - A confirmed break <111k reopens 108.8k then 105.6k (bullish invalidation).
  - Repeated 116–118k rejections with the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator at NEUTRE VENTE favor range fades.
  
• Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
  - US–China: 100% tariff rhetoric followed by a softer tone → headline volatility.
  - Gold at ATH and Middle-East détente → risk appetite and hedging coexist.
  - Fed/BoE: easing bias in the backdrop, but Fed tone remains mixed.
  
• Action plan:
  - Long (116.2k breakout): Entry 116.0–116.3k / Stop 114.8k / TP1 117.8k, TP2 119.9–120.5k, TP3 122k • R/R ~2R→3R.
  - Short (116k rejection or <114k): Entry 115.6–116.0k or <114.0k / Stop 116.6k / TP1 114.0k, TP2 112.5k, TP3 111.1k • R/R ~1.8R→3R.
  

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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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HTFs stay constructive if 111k holds, while mid/low TFs chop below 116k awaiting confirmation.

• 1D/12H (filter Up): Bullish structure intact above 110.8–111.5k; sustained acceptance >115.8–116.2k opens 118–120k.
  
• 6H/4H/2H/1H (NEUTRE VENTE): Range 113.5–116k; 4H/6H “Very High” volume on the flush suggests a base, but no 116.2k close = still defensive.
  
• 30m/15m (execution): Compression below 116k; 15m flips NEUTRE ACHAT on trigger. Clean 30m/15m >116.2k + rising volume creates MTF confluence.
  
• Significance: Bullish confluence = defended 111k + 116.2k breakout + expanding volume; divergence = Risk On / Risk Off Indicator stuck NEUTRE VENTE under 116k.
  

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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Leverage has been cleansed and macro détente is tentative, supporting the bounce while risk appetite remains selective.

• Macro events:
  - US–China: 100% tariff headlines then softer messaging; de-escalation possible but reversible.
  - Geopolitics: hostage releases/ceasefire signals lower tail risk; gold at a new ATH underscores persistent hedging demand.
  - Central banks: BoE leaning to cuts; Fed’s tone mixed despite an easing bias.
  
• Bitcoin analysis:
  - Historic leverage flush on Friday, rebound to ~115k from ~111.4k → cleaner positioning.
  - Must reclaim 116k then 118–120k before the prior breakdown area below ~122k.
  - Flows/treasuries: USDT injections (e.g., 100M to Kraken) and MARA +400 BTC add liquidity, not strictly directional.
  
• On-chain data:
  - Massive OI wipe and record liquidations; sentiment back to “Fear”.
  - Strong on-chain support 117–120k; above it, confluence improves materially.
  
• Expected impact:
  - “Cautious détente” + deleveraging = conditional bullish bias; technically, confirmation is >116k then >118–120k.
  

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Key Takeaways
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The market stabilized after a record flush, but 116k remains the gatekeeper.

- Trend: HTF bullish, STF neutral until 116k is reclaimed.
- Best setup: Confirmed breakout >116.2k with volume toward 117.8k then 120k.
- Key macro: US–China détente and gold at ATH — supportive yet hedged risk tone.
Stay nimble: act on signals, protect below 114k, and watch 111k as swing invalidation.