Over the past ~25yr, we've seen 3 instances of 2yr Yield dropping below the FEDFUNDS rate set by the Federal Reserve.
All 3 instances coincide with Recessions.
On this chart, you see the Yield Differential (Yellow), the SPX (Candles), along with the time of said "Rate Cycle Inversions" (Blue Bar Counts Below Price).
As you can see, all 3 previous instances lead...
The corrective structure for wave (2) looks to be complete. Next important mid-term resistance area: 248-345 (0.382-0.618% extension of wave (1)-(2)). In this resistance zone price may form a potential handle in long CaH patter before breaking out into long term uptrend towards next macro resistance zone: 589-820 and beyond (if following support structure...
While the U.S. nonfarm payroll growth is still averaging 0.12% , just slightly below the average long term 0.14% growth in the past 12 months, the full time employment picture is somewhat grimmer.
The U.S. full time employment peaked in 2023 June, and since there is approximately 1.7 million less full time employee. Probably not a sign for a healthy labour market.
Leveraged money net positioning is reversing from extreme short levels in EURGBP futures.
We do acknowledge the UK's recent positive political momentum amid political turbulence in the EU, however we believe the effect is in the price.
On top of that, our fundamental macro model is slightly bullish EURGBP, certainly not indicating a further drop from these levels....
With last months revision of 818,000 jobs, it is probably safe to conclude that other data points have also been incorrectly reported (manipulated for political purposes).
Total Vehicle Sales for the month of August 2024 were supposed to be published today. As of 8:45 PM EST, the data STILL has not been released.. HUH??
Total vehicle sales are a leading economic...
(Personal Savings vs IXIC) * Purchasing Power of USD
I noticed Personal Savings is very bearish, near 2011 levels. So I multiplied the Purchasing Power of USD by DXY and the IXIC, Composite Index. So it's a more fair comparison of value to the past. Then I adjusted the Decimal Places, so they would be in the same scale, for better comparison.
As the arrows...
The case for investing in China
I have had discussions on this platform about my investments in China, the overwhelming response I get is negative. In this article I would like to try and provide an objective, data focused case to invest in China. In a soon coming article I will look at the opposite position and the potential risks of investing in China.
Less...
From a macro perspective, the bullish trend has just been confirmed. With the current worldwide uncertainty regarding monetary policies, the wars going on and the political conflicts people tend to swift towards safe havens like gold since their store of value does not deteriorate in an economic crisis, it's always on demand and easily convertible. History doesn’t...
Sorry to break it to y'all, but the BTC chop isn't finished yet. I expect a drop to around the $40ks which coincides with the Nov 22 low from a momentum perspective, unlocking another 10 months of upside like we previously experienced.
CAPITALCOM:US500 is the main cause of this, which will cause another capitulation event before assets break correlation and...
Do you need more Fibonacci or is this Fibonacci enough to let you bulls understand, you are trying to win a losing game (hhhhhh). I will accept defeat once the final Fibonacci speed resistance fan line has been beaten, but even then, I will be looking out for a double top.
In my opinion, this traffic zone is a desperate attempt of a trend continuation, however,...
Dow Jones Industrial Average has not shown many signs of slowing in its growth.
Here is a bearish biased shape playing out on the weekly chart in the form of a rising narrowing wedge.
Strictly PA, strictly structure. Keep an eye on this.
Looking for a Macro correction to reach to the .236 or the .382 on a corrective movement.
This is a follow up to a...
Macro theme:
- The BoJ's 0.25% rate hike last Wednesday, the highest in 15 years, sparked a global stock rout. The surge in the low-yielding yen, widely used for acquiring high-yielding assets like stocks, led investors to unwind their positions in currency carry trades.
- Global equity markets rebounded after BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the...
Which often signals a incoming recession.
The market leads the #FED who always raise and lower rates too late.
We have #Unemployment starting to tick up
Tight financial conditions, delinquencies on the rise.
So make hay over the next few months in memestocks, coins, bitcoin, alts, NVDA and so on.
But don't be left holding the hot potato when the music...
Homemakers are making money over fist.
Does this confirm that the housing bull market will continue.
It seems like it doesn't it
This ratio highlights the housing bottom in the 90's
this Ratio also topped out in 2005 before the housing bubble popped
#Roaring20's
- The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose
at their recent monetary policy committee meeting.
The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point,
taking the official rate to 5% ;
double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists.
BoE hiking interest rates to 5% ,
it adds...
Macro theme:
- On Wednesday, the BoJ announced an interest rate increase and a bond tapering plan, reflecting confidence in the domestic economy's recovery and concern over the weakened yen.
- The BOJ raised the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 0.25%, marking the second rate rise this year after the Mar 19 increase, which ended negative interest rates,...
In this video I use Industrial Production, and more specifically, its Rate Of Change to show how we can approximate Booms and Busts in the "Business Cycle".
I also go over previous cycles, and what to look for in our current cycle.
As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
Yet if you read the financial press to make your investment decisions
You would be de risking when you should be putting the pedal to the metal.
Inverse Head and Shoulders points to a whopping price from here once the neckline is broken.
