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Killy_Mel Killy_Mel XLU, D, Long ,
36 0 3
XLU, D Long
MACRO VIEW: XLU STRUGGLING TO GET BACK INTO MACRO UPTRENDS

XLU - the SPDR utilities sector ETF is struggling to get back into macro uptrends, while showing no bias on short term. On long term perspective the price is trading around upper 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean, which is a 5-year uptrend border. The price is also technically in 10-year uptrend, trading above the upper 1st standard deviation from 10-year ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel XLK, D, Long ,
27 0 2
XLK, D Long
MACRO VIEW: XLK IN UPTREND ON ALL FRONTS

XLK - the SPDR Tech sector ETF s in firm uptrend both on macro and on micro perspective, and it is the best-looking US sector ETF from the SPDR range. On long term perspective price has broken back into the 5 and 10 year uptrend, trading above upper first standard deviation from 5 and 10 year means respectively On long term perspective price has recently broken ...

29 0 4
XLB, D
MACRO VIEW: XLB IN UNCERTAINTY ON ALL FRONTS

XLB trades within uncertain territory both on macro and micro basis. On long term perspective price has failed its 10 and 5 year trends, and now trades between 2 macro levels - the 5-year mean at 41.50 and the 10-year uptrend border at 46.50. On short term perspective price also showing no particular trend - XLB is trading within 1st standard deviations from ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel SPX, W, Long ,
139 2 7
SPX, W Long
MACRO VIEW: SPX UPDATE: 5-YEAR UPTREND RESTORED

S&P 500 restores 5-year uptrend by breaking above the upper 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean (at 2020), signaling more long term upside probability. One should also note that the August selloff did not trigger the test of the 10-year trend (price did not tag the 10-year uptrend border at 1845), meaning the upward bias is pretty strong on the index.

39 0 3
XLF, D
MACRO VIEW: XLF AT MACRO UNCERTAINTY, STILL RECOVERING FROM 2008

Financial SPDR ETF is still recovering from 2008 losses and did not make it back in terms of prices. On long term basis - XLF has only recently crossed back the 10-year mean upwards (now at 21.50) and have been in 5-year uptrend until the recent August selloff. Currently it is trading within 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean, showing no macro trend. On ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel XLP, D, Long ,
24 0 4
XLP, D Long
MACRO VIEW: XLP IN FIRM MACRO UPTREND

Consumer Staples SPDR ETF is looking good on both short term and long term basis. On long term basis - XLP trades in both 5 and 10 year uptrend, as the price stands firmly above 1st upper standard deviations from both 5 and 10 year means It has tested its 5-year trend during the august selloff and held it successfully. On short term basis - XLP shows no trends ...

245 0 3
USDRUB, D
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB UPDATE: INTO THE LATERAL RANGE

USDRUB has finally managed to end its upward trend, started the begining of June 2015 The price level has shifted - before uptrend USDRUB was trading about 55, now it is trading north of 60. The end of the uptrend was marked by the price falling below quarterly mean and within 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean. Thus currently the pair is range-bound, with ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel V, D, Long ,
64 0 2
V, D Long
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: VISA IN LONG TERM UPTREND

VIZA is looking good both on long term and short term perspective On long term basis price is in firm 5-year uptrend, trending above 1st upper standard deviation from 5- year mean. The stock is traded relatively recently, so there is no way yet to measure its performance against 10-year mean. On short term basis the picture confirms the macro uptrend - slope of ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel VZ, D, Short ,
62 0 2
VZ, D Short
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: VERIZON IN UNCERTAINTY, ON SHORT TERM RISK

At least stock price wise, not all is looking good for Verizon... Trading between macro means on long term basis, price signalling uncertainty. Price has recently failed 5-year mean at 44 and is now between it and 10-year mean at 38. No trend on macro basis is an outlier, indicating that currently long term institutional investors are unsure regarding this ...

114 0 3
MICEX/USDRUB, D Short
MACRO VIEW: MICEX IN USD RISKS ANOTHER BREAKDOWN

Rusian MICEX index, measured in US dollars is on risk of another severe breakdown. Price is now currently trading at a key level - converged lower 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means (@ 24.75) If the level is taken out, price will be open to fall to its relevant lows @ 23 and If those are broken down, next target would be 18.5 - the 2014 ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel MRK, D, Short ,
47 0 3
MRK, D Short
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: MRK IN MACRO UNCERTAINTY, ON MICRO RISK

Merck fell into uncertainty on long term basis, but is on risk to fall on short term perspective. On long term perspective price is now in lateral range after it failed 10-year uptrend, by falling below 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean @ 54.65 (now the range upper border). The lower border of the macro lateral range is marked by 5-year mean, standing now ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel JPM, D, Long ,
63 0 4
JPM, D Long
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: JPM TESTING MACRO UPTRENDS

JPMorgan is testing its macro uptrend, after successfully testing its 10-year uptrend, currently price tires to reestablish its 5-year uptrend. Recently price has bounced up from the 10-year uptrend border, marked by 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean (at 57) Currently price is trading around its 5-year uptrend border, marked by upper 1st st deviation from ...

41 0 4
JNJ, D
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: JNJ HOLDS LONG TERM TREND, SHORT TERM RISK

JNJ micro picture currently contradicts macro one. On long term basis, JNJ has held the test of 10-year trend by falling below and then bouncing back up above the 10-year uptrend border (marked by 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean, now at 91) On short term basis, however, price has fallen below 1st standard deviations from quarterly (66-day) and 1-year ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel XOM, D, Short ,
95 0 1
XOM, D Short
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: EXXON IS ON RISK OF FURTHER DECLINE

Exxon is in a complex situation - but overall risk is still to the downside at the moment. On long term basis, XOM fell out of 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean (at 76 now), but is still holding within 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean (although, below the mean itself) Thus XOM is on risk of decline there at least to 65 - which is the lower 1st ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel CL1!, M, Short ,
288 2 5
CL1!, M Short
MACRO VIEW: WTI OIL IS STILL ON LONG TERM DOWNTREND RISK

WTI Oil recently broke down into the 10-year downtrend by falling below 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean (120 month), and confirmed it by holding the test of the level (now at 56.5) As long as price holds below the level among expanding volatility (marked by 3.2 standard deviations from the mean), risk of lower prices persists.

72 0 3
CSCO, D
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: CISCO IN MACRO RANGE

Cisco Systems trades in macro range - on 5 and 10 year basis. Price is now currently trading between 2 key levels. The lower level is combined from 5-year (260 weeks) and 10-year (520 weeks) means and is at about 22. The higher level is combined from upper 1st standard deviations from the same means and is at 27. Price trading within 1 standard deviation is not ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel GBPUSD, 60, Short ,
204 0 7
GBPUSD, 60 Short
FX CHART OF THE DAY (2): GBPUSD IS ON BREAKDOWN RISK

GBPUSD is on risk of a macro breakdown (see related chart) On short term basis the situation is now tradable - Pound is breaking below 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean, amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 st deviations from the weekly mean) Traders can pick shorts at the 1st standard deviation (1.5300) and stops at the weekly (1.5375) ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel GBPUSD, D, Short ,
104 0 4
GBPUSD, D Short
MACRO VIEW: GBPUSD MACRO BREAKDOWN RISK

GPBUSD is risking to enter into a downtrend on quarterly basis, with price falling out of flat lower 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66 day) mean at 1.5390 As long as price trades below the level, risk of further downmove is very high - it can trigger volatility expansion (marked by 3.2 standard deviations from quarterly mean) The risk is only cancelled ...

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