RogueEconomics

RogueEconomics

I have noticed that the rally since 2022 lows is forming itself into a decent rising wedge pattern on the SPX. There is also a small RSI divergence in place that has since migrated to the hourly time frames. This could be indicative. There is also a disappointing looking NFP report in the pipeline this week. I have no active trade, and I will not take a...

RogueEconomics Updated 

The "I'm batman" chart pattern is something I've seen a few times over the years and it's always been a pattern that is highly correlated with cucking over-eager shorts that don't put enough effort into their analysis. It consists of a rally, a dip, a strange symmetrical twin-peak pattern with a spike that was sold down between them, and then an extended rally....

RogueEconomics

Firstly, I believe that AAPL, much like SPX, is setting itself up for a Wave 4 correction. A few points on this. In principle, because my count includes a relatively simple zig-zag for SubW2, we should have something different such as I mention to comply with the principle of elliot wave alternation. This could be a triangle pattern or a flat correction for...

RogueEconomics

I recently noted that my cyclical Elliot Wave count coincides with the significant volume areas on a volume profile for the ES! futures contract (S&P500). So, from the top: 1. is the recent volume high. An influx of volume into the market that has driven the nasty corrective grind since the ultimate top. 2. is the value area high as calculated by the volume...

RogueEconomics

This chart is in "The Last Call" - a book by Elliot Wave International leader (and author of "The Wave Principle" book). Prechter uses a composite of PPI, British stock prices and US stock prices to create this chart. The count Prechter applies suggests we are nearing the end of the Grand Supercycle - a complete 5-wave pattern that extends back to...

RogueEconomics

I have to give credit to Julian Brigden for this outline. So please look up his recent Blockworks interview on youtube. I am happy to further develop on his observation by pointing out that what he observed as a "crash pattern" is in fact a diamond reversal pattern. I enclose a comparison to what I consider the "classic" manifestation of a diamond reversal which...

RogueEconomics

Here, you can see the grand supercycle wave count that myself and many other elliot wave theorists hold to. I find it to be a fairly obvious wave count. Especially because, on this scale "corrections" are associated with very severe recessions which involve asset bubbles bursting. So we can see that 2 was the great depression, and 4 was the dotcom bubble and...

RogueEconomics Updated 

This pattern on TSLA fits the outline for a diamond reversal that is referenced on Investopedia. It has all the "classical" facets of a diamond reversal which is a high (A), a low (C) a higher-high. Furthermore, this is happening alongside a very similar pattern on NFLX and some bearish patterns on many other stocks. Similar forms also occurred on SPX in...

RogueEconomics Updated 

I believe that CRSP (Crispr Therapeutics) is about to undergo a severe correction soon. I scaled into this stock during the latter part of 2022 and the first part of 2023 and it is up nearly 70% and has generated about 40% of pure alpha for me relative to the SPX. So this has been an amazing performer for my total portfolio. I believe this run may be nearing a...

RogueEconomics

This shows a huge rising wedge alongside what appears to be a full supercyclical wave count. Alternative counts exist for this but the primary one of interest still puts the DAX on a Wave 4 endpont with the potential to be cut in half. I'm sceptical of thse however because as you can see we have an enormous RSI divergence from the 2000-era boom to present along...

RogueEconomics

So basically, I have been eying Apple for a while... and I noticed today that the pattern sinjce the market top in late 2021 appears to resemble an EXPANDING DIAGONAL which is a somewhat uncommon elliot wave chart pattern. The rally from the lows in early 2023 also is clearly a zig-zag up into the resistance zone at the all-time-high. There also appears to be...

RogueEconomics

This is a very bearish outline for the market. If we look at RNLC - the US Large Cap Select ETF then it is showing head and shoulders with a pair of longer-term RSI divergences. I believe this could be an indicator of where SPX is going in the near future. SPX itself is showing a rising wedge that appears to be forming right where the head and shoulders on...

RogueEconomics Updated 

I spotted this diamond a year ago after the earnings panic. Since then, I realised that institutions have been dumping Netflix at a prodigious rate. In fact, NFLX has gone from nearly 100% institutional ownership, down to 74% institutional ownership in around 15 months. This translates to institutions performing a dump of just over 1.5% of institutional...

RogueEconomics

Although I biased bearish for the past year, the markets are clearly oversold and, furthermore, appear to be showing consolidative pattersn. FAANG index is also showing bullish consolidation. We have a falling wedge and a strong bullish RSI convergence. I believe the recent downturn was also an ABC move. So, in short, although we are down a lot, we have a...

RogueEconomics

(Note: some of the waves look very crushed in this chart, because I composed this count on a 5m chart and trading view won't let me publish at a finer resolution than 15m) I have taken profits on my first long trade on SPX. I traded SPXL (leveraged SPX) from the bottom of this form to the current price point. I have closed because I think we go down here to the...

RogueEconomics

The long-term outline of GBP/USD bears a striking resemblance to what occurred from 2000-2008 on DXY. There may even be a fractal dynamic here. Although I am a dollar bull, I suspect this means DXY is due a pullback which will fundamentally surprise the market. I bias neutral on GBP but the outline at the moment is very bullish. The potential fractal dynamic...

RogueEconomics

We have a double-gap situation on SPX which appears to be setting up a Bullish Island Reversal. We can see the "island" in the bottom of the picture is clearly formed and separated by a double-gap. This is forming at the end of a suspected ABC move, and during conditions where the markets are at the bottom of the MACD and RSI ranges. We can see that there are...

RogueEconomics

From what I can tell, the market now is as oversold was it was during 2008 and 2020. Maybe I'm prematurely flipping bullish here, but I find it very difficult to believe that we're going to go straight down here without a relief rally because we can see that RSI is now at the point it visited during the Winter 2018 selloff (which isn't far away from the absolute...