RogueEconomics

RogueEconomics

SPX is showing a similar form today, now, to what RUT did throughout 2021. This is a bear flag I believe but the form is strikingly similar. Have fun.

RogueEconomics

This appears to be a huge hanging man on the quarterly (3 month) chart. Very solid reversal indicator. Also, we are very much still near the top of the RSI range. Enough said really,

RogueEconomics

In log mode, we can clearly see the trend of yields dating back to the late 1970s. Consistently lower yields on both the 2 year and the 10 year government bonds. Representative of both the long and short duration bonds and their yields. What we can see happening here is a breakout of this downtrend. We are already at between 2.5-3% on the 10YR and the 2YR...

RogueEconomics

I believe that there is a pretty clear fractal or at least a cyclical repeating pattern in inflation. This is a very very long-term view here, so it wouldn't surprise me that nobody has noticed this because everyone is trading 15m and 5m charts. We can see that there are two distinct cycles here with a very similar structure that seems to display some clear...

RogueEconomics

This is an update to a previous idea I've been mooting. This is a deeper dive and follows up with some additional charts. Firstly, an introduction. The bearish diamond reversal is a vary rare technical analysis form. Diamond forms form either bottoms or tops, depending upon relative positioning and are relatively concrete signs of imminent reversals. The...

RogueEconomics

$vnq is showing: trend break backtest of the dead trend a diamond pattern a triple peak/head-and-shoulders pattern and what seems to be a full set of waves before a correction. There's lots of signals here. Plus, this comes just as the FED is about to attempt normalising policy and of course, we have the Black Swan event of the Ukraine conflict.

RogueEconomics

Although I am a crypto-sceptic, I am very bullish on HBAR because I believe it is the only real contender with any potential in the crypto marketplace and it is very likely to displace the majority of it's competitors and become the dominant crypto of the future. I held HBAR from 1 cent to 30 cents until I liquidated anticipating a pullback and a 2nd entry...

RogueEconomics

This is a comparison between NASDAQ 100 and SPY (which can also be substituted for SPX and the USA100) now. The dotcom bust occurred in 2001 with a general wipeout of frankly rubbish techs tocks which were immensely overvalued. A technical hallmark of this crash is the feature of a famous diamond reversal. If you look at the bottom pane you will see how this...

RogueEconomics Updated 

The composite leading indicator is produced by the OECD. It is an index of components that pertain to each country and is considered a leading indicator of near-future economic performance. The components for the CLI are: Component Series (Unit) Source Work started for dwellings sa (number) Net new orders - durable goods sa (USD) Share prices: NYSE...

RogueEconomics

It looks to me like ERX (Direxion Energy Bull 2x ETF) is ironically forming a very bearish outline which seems to coincide with other bearish indicators for oil and equity markets. What's interesting here is the coexistence of a rising wedge form (highlighted in orange) with what appears to be quite a tidy Elliot wave count. There is a pretty clear set of 5...

RogueEconomics

As people may be aware, I have been tracking what looks like a bearish diamond on SPX. Naturally, these have a certain failure rate (as do all technical analysis forms) however this does not mean that they should not be treated with caution when trading and it does not mean that the potential for a risk-off move should be dismissed. Furthermore, there is a...

RogueEconomics Updated 

Brent oil shows a clear pattern of developing bearish divergence on MACD vs. price when the dollar rallies. These have preceded oil routs 3 times historically. And yes, we have one now. I should point out that Brent oil is also at the top of an important historical trend which consists of lower highs and lower lows over the long run. The resistance trend has...

RogueEconomics

We have a clear example of a rising wedge on XOP Oil Exploration & Drilling ETF. There is a similar wedge also forming on VanEck Oil Services ETF. This suggests risk-off is coming to the oil markets soon. My suggested timeline for resolution is 14th Feb. So one week away. I strongly suggest that this may be part of a broader down move coming to oil and gas as...

RogueEconomics

During a discussion with a contact, I pointed out that watching the FED is one of the easy ways to forecast volatility. Being specific here, FED policy on interest rates is a key predictor of market volatility. To summarise, Federal Reserve interest rates induce tightening at institutions. This in turn causes credit crunches out in the real markets as...

RogueEconomics

AAPL is showing a clear (and very large) rising wedge on top of a pattern of declining volume. The wedge doesn't extend beyond May 2022 and this seems to set the show for a Q1 risk-off manouvre marketwide.

RogueEconomics

There is a shooting star candlestick developing on the SPX monthly chart (I use SPX500USD for my charting here). Because we are at the end of november, unless we have significant amounts of upward momentum soon (I.e. on Monday and Tuesday) then this will leave a shooting star as November's candlestick. This is a very bearish signal. You can see from here...

RogueEconomics

It looks to me like there is a clear fractal format of the post-2020 gold market on the SPDR GLD etf chart. Form 1 shows a very large bull-flag type form which resolved beginning of 2021 with a roughly 13% upmove. This has regressed into a smaller fractal copy (about 25% smaller) of this form from Q1 2021 to present day which appears to be resolving down to S1...

RogueEconomics Updated 

There is a clear pattern of pseudo-diamond forms going back to at least the beginning of 2021. They occur at regular 30 day / 4 week intervals. I strongly suspect there is some sort of fractal dynamic in-play. These forms always failed because the market always rallied at the last moment and violated the form by exceeding the high at the mid-point of the...