Here, you can see the grand supercycle wave count that myself and many other elliot wave theorists hold to.
I find it to be a fairly obvious wave count.
Especially because, on this scale "corrections" are associated with very severe recessions which involve asset bubbles bursting.
So we can see that 2 was the great depression, and 4 was the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble bursting.
I like this count, because it fits some very neat ratios.
3 appears to be a perfect 2.618 of 1 for instance.
The wave list to epoch label I perceive to be as follows:
What's interesting about this count, is that we do appear to have RSI divergence from the top of the tech bubble, down to the recent high.
In fact there are 3 lower highs on RSI since the tech bubble (4 if you count the radically lower high of the housing bubble) and they occur against a backdrop of continuing higher-highs.
So effectively, we have a 25 year RSI divergence occurring against the continuing bull-run.
This does appear to be a signature of Wave 5 completing and .
What we have to ask here, is do we consider the 1 year bear market we've experienced, to really be a proportionate correction to the last 150 years of appreciating markets?
Think about this for a moment.
2 and 4 were extinction level events by themselves (the great depression,the housing bubble bursting).
So, why should we not have an extinction level event as a correction here?
Especially given the apparent confirming signature from the RSI.
I'd like to open up a discussion about this and see what people think.
I find it to be a fairly obvious wave count.
Especially because, on this scale "corrections" are associated with very severe recessions which involve asset bubbles bursting.
So we can see that 2 was the great depression, and 4 was the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble bursting.
I like this count, because it fits some very neat ratios.
3 appears to be a perfect 2.618 of 1 for instance.
The wave list to epoch label I perceive to be as follows:
- 1870 -
1929 - Wave 1, 1.00 (WW1, the first asset bubble builds)
- 1929 - 1932 - Wave 2 (the great depression, radical deflation) appears to be 0.786 ratio relative to W1.
- 1932 - 2008 - Wave 3 (WW2, NATO & globalisation) appears to be a 2.618 ratio relative to W1.
- 2008 - 2010 - Wave 4 (Central banks emerge as key movers in driving assets. Tech & Housing bubbles burst). Appears to be a 0.382 ratio relative to W1.
- 2010 - Present - Wave 5 (The radical stimulus era. Deglobalisation takes hold. Deflation. Slow growth). Appears to be a 0.786 ratio relative to wave 1.
- Present -Potential correction to the 5 previous waves - Inflation returns. Central banks start to roll back their presence. The end of globalisation. War returns to Europe.
What's interesting about this count, is that we do appear to have RSI divergence from the top of the tech bubble, down to the recent high.
In fact there are 3 lower highs on RSI since the tech bubble (4 if you count the radically lower high of the housing bubble) and they occur against a backdrop of continuing higher-highs.
So effectively, we have a 25 year RSI divergence occurring against the continuing bull-run.
This does appear to be a signature of Wave 5 completing and .
What we have to ask here, is do we consider the 1 year bear market we've experienced, to really be a proportionate correction to the last 150 years of appreciating markets?
Think about this for a moment.
2 and 4 were extinction level events by themselves (the great depression,the housing bubble bursting).
So, why should we not have an extinction level event as a correction here?
Especially given the apparent confirming signature from the RSI.
I'd like to open up a discussion about this and see what people think.