Macroeconomic Context
Global liquidity is rising again. Over 50 rate cuts across G-20 economies, combined with China’s multi-trillion-yuan stimulus, have added roughly US $5 trillion to global liquidity this year. The world has entered an easing cycle, supporting risk assets.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has started cutting rates but remains cautious: strong fiscal spending on AI infrastructure and tight labor markets could reignite inflation. Analysts expect a pause in early 2026 if price pressures return. Real rates and Fed communication remain the key variables for traders.
Early-Cycle Momentum & Dollar Weakness
Global growth sits in an early-cycle phase. Manufacturing softness contrasts with steady service demand, while fiscal dominance—large government spending—keeps nominal growth near 3 %. Liquidity injections from China and other markets stabilize collateral values and suppress volatility. The U.S. dollar has weakened as capital rotates globally; historically, Bitcoin outperforms during dollar downtrends and post-geopolitical shocks, adding a macro tailwind.
Institutional Demand
U.S. spot ETFs continue to reshape supply. BlackRock’s IBIT surpassed US $15 billion in six months, while corporate holders of Bitcoin doubled to 134 firms. ETF and treasury accumulation now absorb most new issuance, muting volatility and creating a structural floor. Exchange outflows are at two-year highs, confirming long-term accumulation by whales and institutions.
Regulation & Policy Clarity
The GENIUS Act (2025) established a U.S. stablecoin framework, and FASB now requires fair-value accounting for crypto. Together with SEC listing standards, these changes reduce uncertainty for large investors. The U.S. shift toward clarity has improved confidence and should sustain institutional inflows.
Technical Overview
After eight months of consolidation, Bitcoin broke to new highs above $100 k. June’s monthly candle formed a bullish pin bar, confirming demand near $102 k. Indicators remain neutral with balanced funding rates.
Key technical levels:
• Resistance $125 k – major sell zone; breakout opens $130 k–$135 k.
• Intermediate $104 k–$100 k – psychological support.
• Strong support $95 k–$90 k – 200-day EMA zone.
Losing $90 k risks a correction toward $82 k–$74 k.
On-Chain and Sentiment
Glassnode data show whales accumulating and exchange balances shrinking. Bitwise and Fidelity both note that ETFs and corporations now hold enough BTC to reduce daily float meaningfully. Market sentiment is bullish but measured—investors expect high volatility yet maintain multi-year confidence.
Expert Consensus
Standard Chartered, Tom Lee, and ARK Invest project $150 k–$200 k by end-2025, citing liquidity growth and adoption. VanEck and long-term macro investors place decade-end targets above $500 k–$1 million. RBC Capital Markets warns that inflation shocks could pause rate cuts; traders should watch CPI and real-yield trends closely.
Strategic Outlook
1–3 months: Range trading $112 k–$125 k. Break above $125 k → $130 k–$135 k target. Below $116 k → test $112 k support.
6–12 months: Liquidity expansion and ETF inflows point to $150 k–$200 k. Best opportunities likely on pullbacks to $95 k–$100 k.
3–5 years: Fixed supply, corporate adoption, and de-dollarization support an upward bias; structural forecasts $500 k–$1 million remain plausible.
Key Takeaways
Global liquidity is the dominant driver—monitor rate cuts and USD trends.
Institutional accumulation provides downside protection.
$125 k resistance defines near-term risk/reward.
Macro risks: renewed inflation, Fed policy reversals, geopolitical shocks.
Conclusion
Bitcoin enters Q4 2025 with a supportive macro backdrop, rising institutional demand, and technically strong structure. The path is volatile, but the long-term narrative of Bitcoin as a scarce, non-sovereign asset remains intact.
Global liquidity is rising again. Over 50 rate cuts across G-20 economies, combined with China’s multi-trillion-yuan stimulus, have added roughly US $5 trillion to global liquidity this year. The world has entered an easing cycle, supporting risk assets.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has started cutting rates but remains cautious: strong fiscal spending on AI infrastructure and tight labor markets could reignite inflation. Analysts expect a pause in early 2026 if price pressures return. Real rates and Fed communication remain the key variables for traders.
Early-Cycle Momentum & Dollar Weakness
Global growth sits in an early-cycle phase. Manufacturing softness contrasts with steady service demand, while fiscal dominance—large government spending—keeps nominal growth near 3 %. Liquidity injections from China and other markets stabilize collateral values and suppress volatility. The U.S. dollar has weakened as capital rotates globally; historically, Bitcoin outperforms during dollar downtrends and post-geopolitical shocks, adding a macro tailwind.
Institutional Demand
U.S. spot ETFs continue to reshape supply. BlackRock’s IBIT surpassed US $15 billion in six months, while corporate holders of Bitcoin doubled to 134 firms. ETF and treasury accumulation now absorb most new issuance, muting volatility and creating a structural floor. Exchange outflows are at two-year highs, confirming long-term accumulation by whales and institutions.
Regulation & Policy Clarity
The GENIUS Act (2025) established a U.S. stablecoin framework, and FASB now requires fair-value accounting for crypto. Together with SEC listing standards, these changes reduce uncertainty for large investors. The U.S. shift toward clarity has improved confidence and should sustain institutional inflows.
Technical Overview
After eight months of consolidation, Bitcoin broke to new highs above $100 k. June’s monthly candle formed a bullish pin bar, confirming demand near $102 k. Indicators remain neutral with balanced funding rates.
Key technical levels:
• Resistance $125 k – major sell zone; breakout opens $130 k–$135 k.
• Intermediate $104 k–$100 k – psychological support.
• Strong support $95 k–$90 k – 200-day EMA zone.
Losing $90 k risks a correction toward $82 k–$74 k.
On-Chain and Sentiment
Glassnode data show whales accumulating and exchange balances shrinking. Bitwise and Fidelity both note that ETFs and corporations now hold enough BTC to reduce daily float meaningfully. Market sentiment is bullish but measured—investors expect high volatility yet maintain multi-year confidence.
Expert Consensus
Standard Chartered, Tom Lee, and ARK Invest project $150 k–$200 k by end-2025, citing liquidity growth and adoption. VanEck and long-term macro investors place decade-end targets above $500 k–$1 million. RBC Capital Markets warns that inflation shocks could pause rate cuts; traders should watch CPI and real-yield trends closely.
Strategic Outlook
1–3 months: Range trading $112 k–$125 k. Break above $125 k → $130 k–$135 k target. Below $116 k → test $112 k support.
6–12 months: Liquidity expansion and ETF inflows point to $150 k–$200 k. Best opportunities likely on pullbacks to $95 k–$100 k.
3–5 years: Fixed supply, corporate adoption, and de-dollarization support an upward bias; structural forecasts $500 k–$1 million remain plausible.
Key Takeaways
Global liquidity is the dominant driver—monitor rate cuts and USD trends.
Institutional accumulation provides downside protection.
$125 k resistance defines near-term risk/reward.
Macro risks: renewed inflation, Fed policy reversals, geopolitical shocks.
Conclusion
Bitcoin enters Q4 2025 with a supportive macro backdrop, rising institutional demand, and technically strong structure. The path is volatile, but the long-term narrative of Bitcoin as a scarce, non-sovereign asset remains intact.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.