Topic: Macro Crypto Outlook
Context: BTC.D, DXY, Equities,
BTC, News
Article:
Macro Crypto Outlook (Weekly Summary)
Assets:
BTCUSDT.P 
DXY BTC.D 
ETHBTC
In this Weekly Macro Crypto Outlook, we break down the current state of the market and outline our forward-looking thesis for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins.
Volatility is high.
Some believe the cycle has topped.
Others expect one final leg before the market turns.
At DeCode, we look past the noise and focus on data, structure, and context.
Let’s decode the charts together and map out what’s ahead for the rest of 2025.
Bitcoin Outlook
Bitcoin is now attempting a breakout on the weekly chart, reclaiming the previous structural Higher High. To confirm this move, we need at least two consecutive candle closes above $119,655. Despite multiple rejections from the recent highs, the market has absorbed that bearish pressure and pushed higher; a strong signal of underlying bullish strength.
If this breakout holds, the next targets lie at the +5 and +6 VWAP standard deviations, sitting around $137,000 and $151,500, which represents a potential +10% to +20% move from current levels. On the daily chart, we’re seeing six consecutive bullish closes, but short-term momentum is starting to fade, specially with a clear 3-Drive pattern that often lead the start of a pullback from Short Sellers.
Entering at all-time highs is rarely optimal, neither profitable so pullbacks are opportunities, not threats.
Key zones to watch on a retracement are:
While a deep correction is unlikely given current momentum, the deeper the pullback, the better the Risk/Reward for those waiting with patience and a plan.
BItcoin Dominance & ETHBTC
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) turned bearish a few weeks ago, but we’re now seeing early signs of a potential pullback. From a weekly perspective, the trend remains to the downside as long as BTC.D stays below 62.62%. However, the recent failed auctions on both the Weekly and Daily timeframes suggest we could see a short-term bounce in dominance.
A rising BTC.D means Bitcoin takes the spotlight and altcoins suffer disproportionately. Until we see clear weakness in BTC.D, it’s wise to keep altcoin exposure controlled.
The 60.85% – 59.57% zone is the key area to watch. If BTC.D starts showing rejection or weakness there, it could open a high-conviction window to rotate into undervalued alts.
ETHBTC remains the primary signal for altcoin strength and the true beginning of altseason. In our view, it hasn’t started yet. Recently, ETHBTC broke out of a multi-year bearish trend on the weekly chart; a significant structural shift.
On the daily chart, ETHBTC is gaining strength from a key Volume Level Zone, while BTC.D creeps higher. This divergence is critical:
ETHBTC must hold above 0.03749 to maintain this momentum. As Bitcoin cools off, ETH could lead the next phase of the cycle.
TradFi Correlation
In traditional markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is often viewed as a risk-off indicator, when the dollar strengthens, risk assets like crypto, equities, and commodities tend to suffer.
At the moment, the DXY is showing signs of strength on the weekly chart, forming a solid base after multiple rejections from its previous structural lower low. If this structure holds, we could see a move toward 100.54, a key level that aligns with a potential short-term pullback across crypto markets. A break and sustained move above that level would shift the daily DXY structure to bullish, signaling increased demand for dollar safety. Historically, this tends to put downward pressure on risk assets, as investors rotate out of speculative positions.
This price action isn’t happening in a vacuum. Here’s what’s adding fuel to the fire:
📈 U.S. Treasury Yields are rising again as markets price in “higher for longer” rates. This strengthens the dollar and drains liquidity from risk assets.
📊 CPI and employment data are keeping the Fed cautious, which delays any meaningful pivot or rate cuts, even as parts of the economy show signs of slowing.
🧠 Global liquidity conditions are tightening, especially with ongoing geopolitical tensions and lower than expected growth in major economies like China and the EU.
🏦 Institutional capital is cautious; inflows into crypto ETFs have slowed, and hedge funds are increasing USD exposure as a hedge.
Context: BTC.D, DXY, Equities,
BTC, NewsArticle:
Macro Crypto Outlook (Weekly Summary)
Assets:
BTCUSDT.P DXY BTC.D ETHBTCIn this Weekly Macro Crypto Outlook, we break down the current state of the market and outline our forward-looking thesis for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins.
Volatility is high.
Some believe the cycle has topped.
Others expect one final leg before the market turns.
At DeCode, we look past the noise and focus on data, structure, and context.
Let’s decode the charts together and map out what’s ahead for the rest of 2025.
Bitcoin Outlook
Bitcoin is now attempting a breakout on the weekly chart, reclaiming the previous structural Higher High. To confirm this move, we need at least two consecutive candle closes above $119,655. Despite multiple rejections from the recent highs, the market has absorbed that bearish pressure and pushed higher; a strong signal of underlying bullish strength.
If this breakout holds, the next targets lie at the +5 and +6 VWAP standard deviations, sitting around $137,000 and $151,500, which represents a potential +10% to +20% move from current levels. On the daily chart, we’re seeing six consecutive bullish closes, but short-term momentum is starting to fade, specially with a clear 3-Drive pattern that often lead the start of a pullback from Short Sellers.
Entering at all-time highs is rarely optimal, neither profitable so pullbacks are opportunities, not threats.
Key zones to watch on a retracement are:
- $118,880
- $112,600
- $107,450
While a deep correction is unlikely given current momentum, the deeper the pullback, the better the Risk/Reward for those waiting with patience and a plan.
BItcoin Dominance & ETHBTC
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) turned bearish a few weeks ago, but we’re now seeing early signs of a potential pullback. From a weekly perspective, the trend remains to the downside as long as BTC.D stays below 62.62%. However, the recent failed auctions on both the Weekly and Daily timeframes suggest we could see a short-term bounce in dominance.
A rising BTC.D means Bitcoin takes the spotlight and altcoins suffer disproportionately. Until we see clear weakness in BTC.D, it’s wise to keep altcoin exposure controlled.
The 60.85% – 59.57% zone is the key area to watch. If BTC.D starts showing rejection or weakness there, it could open a high-conviction window to rotate into undervalued alts.
ETHBTC remains the primary signal for altcoin strength and the true beginning of altseason. In our view, it hasn’t started yet. Recently, ETHBTC broke out of a multi-year bearish trend on the weekly chart; a significant structural shift.
On the daily chart, ETHBTC is gaining strength from a key Volume Level Zone, while BTC.D creeps higher. This divergence is critical:
If ETHBTC holds while BTC.D rises, we could be setting up for a massive ETHUSDT expansion, followed by strong moves in L1s and L2s.
ETHBTC must hold above 0.03749 to maintain this momentum. As Bitcoin cools off, ETH could lead the next phase of the cycle.
TradFi Correlation
In traditional markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is often viewed as a risk-off indicator, when the dollar strengthens, risk assets like crypto, equities, and commodities tend to suffer.
At the moment, the DXY is showing signs of strength on the weekly chart, forming a solid base after multiple rejections from its previous structural lower low. If this structure holds, we could see a move toward 100.54, a key level that aligns with a potential short-term pullback across crypto markets. A break and sustained move above that level would shift the daily DXY structure to bullish, signaling increased demand for dollar safety. Historically, this tends to put downward pressure on risk assets, as investors rotate out of speculative positions.
This price action isn’t happening in a vacuum. Here’s what’s adding fuel to the fire:
📈 U.S. Treasury Yields are rising again as markets price in “higher for longer” rates. This strengthens the dollar and drains liquidity from risk assets.
📊 CPI and employment data are keeping the Fed cautious, which delays any meaningful pivot or rate cuts, even as parts of the economy show signs of slowing.
🧠 Global liquidity conditions are tightening, especially with ongoing geopolitical tensions and lower than expected growth in major economies like China and the EU.
🏦 Institutional capital is cautious; inflows into crypto ETFs have slowed, and hedge funds are increasing USD exposure as a hedge.
Let's DeCode the markets together,
Bast.
Bast.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Let's DeCode the markets together,
Bast.
Bast.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.