After making a new ATH above $126k in early October, BTC is now trading around $90k – roughly 25–30% below the highs. On the 4H chart it’s a clean downtrend: lower highs, lower lows, and a break of the prior support zone in the mid-90k area.
For me, this isn’t just “random FUD” – it’s a mix of macro, flows and positioning all lining up:
---- Macro / narrative shift ----
Earlier in the year BTC traded as a “Trump trade”. Recently that narrative has been shaken by tariff headlines and policy uncertainty, while capital attention also rotated toward AI after the Genesis Mission executive order. Less confidence = less appetite for chasing BTC at extremes.
----Spot ETF + on-chain flows ---
U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen around $3.8B of net outflows in November, removing a big source of steady demand. At the same time:
A Satoshi-era wallet (~12k BTC, ≈$1.4B) moved coins to exchanges.
On centralized venues (especially Binance) we’ve seen billions in net inflows, which usually means more inventory available to sell.
---- Leverage flush-----
The violent October selloff already triggered a record liquidation event (≈$19B in 24h). What we’re seeing now looks like the second phase: spot selling + de-risking after the leverage was washed out.
----- Levels I’m watching on the 4H chart-----
1 - Resistance: 92–93k – former support, now capping bounces.
2 - Support: 80–82k – recent reaction zone, roughly around the 0.618 retrace of the whole bull leg.
3 - Lose 80k convincingly and 70k starts to open up as the next big “magnet” area; reclaim and hold above 93k and we can talk about a deeper relief rally.
Not financial advice – just how I’m trying to connect price action with flows and macro instead of blaming every red candle on “whales” only.
For me, this isn’t just “random FUD” – it’s a mix of macro, flows and positioning all lining up:
---- Macro / narrative shift ----
Earlier in the year BTC traded as a “Trump trade”. Recently that narrative has been shaken by tariff headlines and policy uncertainty, while capital attention also rotated toward AI after the Genesis Mission executive order. Less confidence = less appetite for chasing BTC at extremes.
----Spot ETF + on-chain flows ---
U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen around $3.8B of net outflows in November, removing a big source of steady demand. At the same time:
A Satoshi-era wallet (~12k BTC, ≈$1.4B) moved coins to exchanges.
On centralized venues (especially Binance) we’ve seen billions in net inflows, which usually means more inventory available to sell.
---- Leverage flush-----
The violent October selloff already triggered a record liquidation event (≈$19B in 24h). What we’re seeing now looks like the second phase: spot selling + de-risking after the leverage was washed out.
----- Levels I’m watching on the 4H chart-----
1 - Resistance: 92–93k – former support, now capping bounces.
2 - Support: 80–82k – recent reaction zone, roughly around the 0.618 retrace of the whole bull leg.
3 - Lose 80k convincingly and 70k starts to open up as the next big “magnet” area; reclaim and hold above 93k and we can talk about a deeper relief rally.
Not financial advice – just how I’m trying to connect price action with flows and macro instead of blaming every red candle on “whales” only.
I am Trader and Pinescript Freelancer with more than 300 projects on Fiverr, follow for more valuable ideas and scripts
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
I am Trader and Pinescript Freelancer with more than 300 projects on Fiverr, follow for more valuable ideas and scripts
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.