Up’October is widely expected, myself included. Statistically speaking the 2nd October post Halving is a strong green month. All the influencers are talking about it. That was until the largest forced liquidation event in the history of the asset class wiped out $19billion. What a number. One man, one tweet = mass panic.
The liquidations cascaded one after the other sending a number of alternative tokens all the way to near zero before quickly recovering. Confidence in the Ponzi scheme has taken quite a hit. In fairness market participants must accept some blame, 80% of the money entering the space was on leverage products with the small remainder into spot positions. In summary the liquidity in the spot market is near non existent. No one is touching it, which was first identified in the "Is alt season dead?" idea.
The technical analysis
$102k, a line in the sand
Conclusions
Bitcoin has now reached a point in the structure where the reaction must be strong, but it isn’t. The rejection from the channel midline for the third time and the subsequent weak Gaussian test are not the signs of a healthy uptrend.
If price action fails to hold, it risks closing a 4-day candle body inside the Gaussian channel, a condition that historically precedes a move to the lower boundary. Based on the current slope, that lower test aligns near $92,000 tomorrow and $102k by mid-November.
There’s still room for recovery, but it must happen immediately. The longer Bitcoin trades near channel support with low volume, the greater the probability of structural failure.
Should a confirmed close occur below $102k, that would officially mark the first trend reversal since the 2024 post-halving rally, a shift from expansion to contraction. In simple terms, a break below this level transitions Bitcoin from bull to bear.
For now, October’s historical strength remains a statistic, not a guarantee. The market doesn’t care what month it is, only where the liquidity is.
Ww
====================
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and expresses personal opinion, not financial advice. I hold no position in Bitcoin and no vested interest in it.
Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and unpredictable. Always conduct your own analysis, manage your risk carefully, and never trade solely based on another person’s idea.
Patience, confirmation, and risk control, the only things that survive every market cycle.
The liquidations cascaded one after the other sending a number of alternative tokens all the way to near zero before quickly recovering. Confidence in the Ponzi scheme has taken quite a hit. In fairness market participants must accept some blame, 80% of the money entering the space was on leverage products with the small remainder into spot positions. In summary the liquidity in the spot market is near non existent. No one is touching it, which was first identified in the "Is alt season dead?" idea.
The technical analysis
Price action follows an upward trending channel on the above 4 day chart. Price action has recently rejected the medium line and confirmed it as resistance for the 3rd time. Look left, previous events sent price action to the lower side of the channel. Is this time different?
“Strong” and “weak”, notice the labels here? When price action tests the Gaussian channel (uptrend or downtrend) it is expected to bounce strongly as a confirmation of the current momentum behind the trend.
The test at this moment is a 4 day candle that prints today, the reaction to the channel has been anything but strength, it is complete weakness. This is what happens when interest in the asset is sub-zero, buyers are nowhere to be seen.
** It is highly likely price action shall test the lower side of the channel should a candle body print inside the channel **
In order words, price action will correct to $92k should it drop in a straight line. Looking left a period of up to 30 days is likely to follow before a test. The channel is rising and price action would likely be around $102k by mid-November.
** This will be the reddest October ever! **
$102k, a line in the sand
Price action at this level cannot fail support as shown on the above 4 day chart. Broken market structure would be confirmed should a candle body close under this level. That would mean Bitcoin entered a bear market and trend reversal.
Conclusions
Bitcoin has now reached a point in the structure where the reaction must be strong, but it isn’t. The rejection from the channel midline for the third time and the subsequent weak Gaussian test are not the signs of a healthy uptrend.
If price action fails to hold, it risks closing a 4-day candle body inside the Gaussian channel, a condition that historically precedes a move to the lower boundary. Based on the current slope, that lower test aligns near $92,000 tomorrow and $102k by mid-November.
There’s still room for recovery, but it must happen immediately. The longer Bitcoin trades near channel support with low volume, the greater the probability of structural failure.
Should a confirmed close occur below $102k, that would officially mark the first trend reversal since the 2024 post-halving rally, a shift from expansion to contraction. In simple terms, a break below this level transitions Bitcoin from bull to bear.
For now, October’s historical strength remains a statistic, not a guarantee. The market doesn’t care what month it is, only where the liquidity is.
Ww
====================
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and expresses personal opinion, not financial advice. I hold no position in Bitcoin and no vested interest in it.
Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and unpredictable. Always conduct your own analysis, manage your risk carefully, and never trade solely based on another person’s idea.
Patience, confirmation, and risk control, the only things that survive every market cycle.
Note
Price action is now inside the channel. It has until Monday October 20th to not confirm, this idea is active otherwise.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.