DAX To Accelerate Momentum To The Up Side for TVC:DEU30 by SwissView

Germany´s DAX is now just a few points away from the 2015 ATH.

- Same time the Handelsblatt.com Sentiment Survey is showing the highest numbers of Bears since 2014.
- The U.S. based greed & fear Index showed on Monday "22" or "extreme fear".
- AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Rises As Neutral And Bullish Sentiments Fall. Institutionals cut back their investment-rate from 84 to 67,8%.
- DAX Traders discussed the last 10 days a "rising wedge" and accelerated put buying.
- Germany`s Euwax Sentiment same time allmost every day was deep in the negative territory.

Technically this "channel" printed in this Chart is something what usually occurs only in very strong down trends. If ever this channel is broken in the direction of the trend before than the same trend like before accelerates. As said before it is extremely unusual in uptrends - but it´s there.

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MAR 30 2017: AAII Sentiment Survey

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MAR 31 2017: Traders should focus now on this Issue. Marketscould react with a major sell off to any (!) Testimony.

Flynn seeks immunity for testimony

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New All Time High for the DAX (monthly). Remind the risk over the Trump/Russia issue like mentioned above until it`s clear, that there is no threath to stockmarkets.

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Comment: APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
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Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
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APR 01 2017: New ‘Great Rotation’? Investors drop US stocks to buy a piece of the European action
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APR 01 2017: Europe is suddenly the hot new trade in the stock market
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Comment: APR 02 2017 An influential GOP senator throws cold water on the polarizing House border tax provision

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APR 03 2017 Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EU

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APR 03 2017: German manufacturing growth reached an reached an almost six-year high in March, Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing showed on Monday. Manufacturing activity in France and Italy also rose, adding to signs of a pickup in momentum in the global economy.
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APR 03 2017 Traders shorted 10 consecutive days a anticipated top or "rising wedge". Todays result: The Handelsblatt DAX Investors Sentiment Survey is showing a record high pessimis same DAX the DAX was just 16 points away to make a new All Time High.

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Comment: APR 03 2017: 'Not natural friends': Trump, Xi will be 'odd couple' at first summit

Some White House aides believe Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner could be an influential moderating voice on how he handles Xi in their talks on Thursday and Friday. Contacts between Kushner and China’s U.S. envoy helped smooth the way for the meeting, according to current and former U.S. officials.
Even so, what worries the protocol-conscious Chinese more than policy clashes is the risk that the unpredictable Trump could publicly embarrass Xi, after several foreign leaders experienced awkward moments with the new U.S. president.
"Ensuring President Xi does not lose face is a top priority for China,” a Chinese official said. Source:

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APR 04 2017: Asia stocks skittish as investors seek shelter before Trump-Xi meeting
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Comment: APR 04 2017 U.S. trade deficit falls as exports hit two-year high

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APR 04 2017: Consolidation pattern above a major bearish reversal pattern, wich the DAX didn´t care about.

Before the upper trendline was broken, the "rising wedge pattern" was widely discussed by the bears. Now above this pattern (what is a clear and very strong bullish sign) this discussion disappeared. This is once more clear evidence that the majority of traders arn´t discussing unbiased technical analysis.

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APR 04 2017: "Risk free trades against Europe on the rise of populism" vs. facts and figures

Quote: In recent polls, AfD (Germany´s far right party) has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold

Head of AfD, Frauke Petry (41), who has been under pressure within her Party, has now struck back – by indirectly threatening to step down

In recent polls, AfD has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold (currently seven percent, according to Allensbach). Without Petry, this might become even more of a tight squeeze. In the end, the party might fail to make it into parliament. Source:

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APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge

Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency.
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APR 04 2017 - Qoute: Keep Your Eye On U.S.-China Summit
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APR 05 2017 Euro zone businesses started 2017 on a six-year high: PMI

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APR 05 2017 - Experts say China has been prepping its economy for Trump-Xi meeting

Quote: "We think that the compromise could take the form of Chinese investments in the U.S. creating jobs — this is already underway and more about framing," Mizuho said in a note Tuesday. "What's more, China could open more sectors to U.S. firms and will rehash openness to high-tech U.S. imports as well as services trade as quid pro quo," the note added. Source:

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APR 05 2017 - Technicaly unch:

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APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council
(CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format.
The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source:

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APR 06 2017 - European stocks open lower in cautious trade; DAX down 0.76%

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APR 06 2017 - Head of House conservatives: Tax reform possible by August

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APR 06 2017- Europe, Economie
Draghi says ECB's policy stance is still appropriate, too soon to reduce stimulus
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Comment: APR 07 2017 - US fires over 50 missiles at Syria: Reuters

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US-Syria Airstrikes: I personally do not trade or comment on any military action.

The medium or short term outlook for all european stockmarkets remains unchanged.

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APR 06 2017 - Trump accept's Xi's invitation to visit China: Xinhua

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APR 07 2017 Mixed jobs report leaves markets unfazed about Fed rate hikes

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Comment: APR 08 2017 - USDMXN is ready for a new drop back to pre election levels. The Trump Team could be expect to set a more moderate tone until the end of Trumps first 100 days in office.
Trump Fires Warning Shot in Battle Between Bannon and Kushner

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JAN 20 2017:

To be a powerfull US President Donald Trump need to have full support from U.S. Congress and U.S. Senat over the full next four years.

The approval rates right now do not confirm, that Donald Trump is a "powerfull president". The numbers of visitors at the inauguration also left some doubts.

Traders need to follow the facts and not political opinions. How "powerfull" Donald Trump really is might the Mexican Peso show. USDMXN -0.50% is a clear indicator about "Donald Trump" fears.

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APR 08 2017 - Click on the USDMXN Chart above and load new bars to understand the change in US-Politics by a stockmarket chart. The chart is showing the Mexican Peso to weaken after the Trump election and strengthen since the Trump Inauguration.

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APR 08 2017 - Trump/Trade/China: This what Germany`s DAX Traders reading today in Germany^s first Stockmarket Newspaper handelsblatt.com reading today and trading on monday. The tone is positiv.

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APR 08 2017 Chinese state media cheer Xi-Trump meeting, say confrontation not inevitable

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APR 08 2017: A conflicted stock market faces moment of truth as earnings loom
If earnings meet expectations, it could be the best quarter since third quarter 2011

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APR 08 2017 - Populist Johnson stays away from Populist Putin
Quote: UK's Johnson cancels Moscow visit after Syria gas attack

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APR 07 2017: Deutsche Bank completes $8.5 billion cash-raising exercise

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APR 10 2017 Investors look to global growth for earnings power

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Comment: APR 09 2017 - Ford CEO Mark Fields 'encouraged' by US-China future as Trump, Xi end summit

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APR 10 2017 - China offers concessions to avert trade war with US
Xi affords Trump prospect of quick wins on market access in finance and beef

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APR 10 2017 Euro zone investor morale shrugs off French election fears

Quote: BERLIN, April 10 (Reuters) - Investor sentiment in the euro zone improved more than expected in April to remain at the highest level in almost 10 years on Monday, shrugging off risks linked to a closely watched presidential election in France. The Frankfurt-based Sentix research group's euro zone index rose to 23.9 points, its highest level since August 2007. That exceeded the consensus forecast of 21.0 in a Reuters poll of analysts.The index last month rose to 20.7 from 17.4 in February as concern dissipated that global political risks could end an economic upswing.
"The euro zone has emancipated itself from global tendencies, as the assessment for other world regions is by no means unequivocal," Sentix said in a statement.
"The euro zone continues to make further economic progress.
Before the important presidential election in France, the current situation index for the euro zone economy rose to the highest level since January 2008," it said.
France will elect a new president in a two-round ballot in April and May. Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron is expected to contest a run-off against far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen. Her plans to ditch the euro and hold a referendum on European Union membership have spooked many investors, who fear a "Frexit" after British voters chose last year to leave the EU. Sentix said the current situation sub-index for the euro zone was 28.8, up from 23.8 in March. An index tracking Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, rose to 35.3 in April from 34.1 in March. "The strong euro zone, which has been fired up by an extremely expansive monetary policy, has not failed to leave its mark on the strongest euro economy," Sentix said, suggesting Germany was benefiting from a recovery in the currency bloc. By contrast, the indices for the United States and Japan fell. Sentix linked the fall in the world's largest economy to U.S. President Donald Trump. "The president talks a lot, but his messages are reaching investors increasingly less," Sentix wrote. "Trump has become a killer of perspectives."
U.S. stocks have risen to record highs since Trump's election after he vowed to remove some of the regulations introduced after the financial crisis and to boost spending on the military and infrastructure.
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APR 10 2017 - Triangle Pattern

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APR 10 2017 - Germany´s MDAX: New All Time High today. The steep uptrend is confirming the DAX Bull Run since December 2016 same time showing that the upmove is to come to an end in the next couple of weeks.

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APR 10 2017 - The new Handelsblatt Survey:

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APR 10 2017 - US Sentiment turning extremely negative today. The Handelsblatt.com Survey showed record bearish sentiment for Germany^s DAX. The VIX is now rising above 13,5. The Cboe intraday Put Call Ratio is up to 1,21. The Great and Fear Index is down to 36 and US Yields dropping 2 basis points.

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APR 10 2017 - Treasury yields slide after largest one-day yield-gain in 2 weeks

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APR 10 2017 Goldman Sachs recommends a market bet as elections loom in France
Quote: France's presidential election is rapidly approaching, and Goldman Sachs is telling investors to stay cautious.

The investment banking giant recommended Monday that investors short French bond futures expiring in June ahead of the contest, amid the possibility that anti-establishment candidate Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Melenchon could stun pollsters with a win. Source:

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APR 10 2017 - Opinion: Trump, May show surprising tilt toward pragmatism
Quote: Instead of acrimony and tantrums, we got cooperation and compromise
... However, in the past few days, the U.S. and British leaders have shown they are perfectly capable of reasonable policies designed around compromise rather than confrontation. ...
... The president carried out what appears to have been another valuable service by removing his top aide Steve Bannon from the White House National Security Council, where the former head of right-wing website Breitbart News had seemed out of place. ...
.... In a retreat from “no-holds-barred” Brexit orthodoxy, Britain has said it would abide by some rules — including free movement of citizens — during a transition in which new regulations are being phased in. On a visit to Saudi Arabia last week, May attuned her EU dictum to Realpolitik principles, accepting that no full trade deal can be concluded until after the U.K. leaves and conceding that immigration from the EU could continue until after the next British election in 2020. ...
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APR 10 2017: VIX is rising today even the DJIA is up same day. This is very positiv for any stockmarkets, especially if an index is close to an all time high. Open the Charts to see the Vix:
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APR 11 2017: VIX is rising again today allmost 10%. This is very positiv for any stockmarkets, especially if an index is close to an all time high. Open the Charts to see the Vix:

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The Vix now is higher than before the "Renzi Constitutional Referendum" wich shoot the DAX rocket straight up now for 2.000 points.

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APR 11 2017 - Greed & Fear Index droped again to the lowest levels since the U.S. Election on November 9th 2016.

Quote: VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 15.10, 26.64% above its 50-day moving average and indicates that investors are concerned about the near-term values of their portfolios. Last changed Apr 7 from a Fear rating Updated Apr 11 at 9:54am

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APR 12 2017- Fitch changes its mind: Trump isn't a threat to the world economy after all
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- In February, Fitch warned that Trump posed a danger to global economic stability.

- In April, the ratings agency says the president's pro-growth agenda would push GDP more than expected.

Concerns linger over protectionism and debt, but the report was a major change from the previous warnings.

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APR 17 2017 - Wall Street banker Cohn moving Trump toward moderate policies
WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - In a White House marked by infighting, top economic aide Gary Cohn, a Democrat and former Goldman Sachs banker, is muscling aside some of President Donald Trump's hard-right advisers to push more moderate, business-friendly economic policies. Source:

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Comment: APR 17 2017: China beats GDP forecast

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APR 17 2017 - China Roars Back to Lift Global Outlook as U.S. Consumer Weakens

- Economy on pace to power one-third of global growth in 2017
- Government makes progress in restraining runaway credit growth

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APR 17 2017 U.S. stocks shrug off global tensions and eye M&A

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APR 17 2017 Wall Street gains as focus shifts to earnings

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APR 17 2017 - China has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analyst
China has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analyst

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Comment: APR 17 2017 - Brazil's economy grew at its fastest pace since 2010 and its stocks are flying high

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APR 17 2017 - Border Adjustment TAX maybe never to come:

Quote: Supporters of the border-adjustment provision point out that it would raise $1 trillion in revenue that could be used to help pay for lowering tax rates. Mnuchin told the Financial Times that there are other ways that the White House could raise $1 trillion but that the border-adjustment proposal is not "off the table." Source:

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APR 18 2017 Europe's 'fear gauge' is rising ahead of first presidential vote in France this weekend

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APR 18 2017: Geopolitics vs. underlying fundamentals:

- British PM May calls for early election to strengthen Brexit hand

vs.

U.S. industrial production rises in line with expectations in March

IMF raises global growth forecast, warns against protectionism

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APR 18 2017 - VIX v& German Bunds: Both indicating to expect near term decission about further direction to come.

German Bunds: Late day sell off reversed

VIX: Intraday rise reversed

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APR 18 2017: Consolidation Pattern possible/likely

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APR 19 2017: Macron clings on to lead in tense French election race
Centrist Emmanuel Macron held on to his lead as favorite to win France's presidential election, a closely-watched poll showed on Wednesday, although it showed that the first round of voting at the weekend Sunday remains too close to call. Source:

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APR 19 2017 - Euro showing short term upside momentum now

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APR 20 2017: Underlying fundamentals vs. geopolitics:

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APR 20 2017 - The market suddenly doubts the Fed will raise rates twice more this year
Traders assign just a 41 percent chance that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year.
Goldman economist Jan Hatzius counters that concerns over the economy now will abate and allow the Fed to fulfill its projections for 2017
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APR 21 2017 - Beyond geopolitics European fundamentals remain strong:
Euro zone composite PMI hits 6-year high in April

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APR 23 2017: For German Readers (english as soon as available)
Angela Merkel musste Trump Berichten zufolge 11-mal die Prinzipien der EU erklären

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APR 24 2017: Europe's populist wave stalls as Macron storms into French runoff

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APR 24 2017: Angela Merkel reportedly had to explain the 'fundamentals' of EU trade to Trump 11 times

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APR 24 2017 Germany's Merkel encouraged U.S. will consider EU free trade deal

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APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result

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NASDAQ closes at record high ahead of major techs earnings.

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Asian equities edge up as Japan outperforms, dollar regains traction
The mood brightened slightly, however, on news that U.S. congressional negotiators hammered out a bipartisan agreement on a spending package to keep the federal government funded through Sept. 30, thus averting a government shutdown.

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Nasdaq hits record highs ahead of Apple earnings

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German manufacturing growth near six-year high in April: PMI

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Brazil's manufacturing PMI rises past 50 for first time since 2015

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German economy booms as protectionist threat goes pop

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U.S. factory orders rise; core capital goods orders revised up

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UK and Europe set for record dividend pay-outs in 2017 despite big political risk

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French vote quashes euro political risk trade

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European stock funds gather momentum as inflows cross all-time record high of $6 billion

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Exclusive: Portugal says economy growing faster than forecast

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S&P 500 hits record high close following Fed minutes

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Rare retail bright spot boosts S&P, Nasdaq to records.

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Polls suggest parliamentary majority within reach for France's Macron

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Comment: UK could be heading towards hung parliament after general election, pollster predicts
YouGov predicts the Conservatives may win just 310 seats – 16 shy of an absolute majority

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Labour ahead of Conservatives in unadjusted poll of voters
Overall result for Ipsos Mori still shows Theresa May ahead by five points - but the gap is narrowing in Jeremy Corbyn's favour

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Comment: China May data to show stable growth as exports stay solid

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UK General Election polls: Tory lead slashed by 16 points as 'election race on a knife edge'

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UK General Election polls: Tory lead slashed by 16 points as 'election race on a knife edge'

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Comment: OECD ups global growth forecast to six-year high; downgrades US

Trade closed: stop reached:

All longpositions closed. Medium term momentum likely to be more to the down side.