As I finished with yesterday, now that the 12hr has struck, we cannot develop any further uptrend marks above us to take us higher. That is why, I expect at LEAST a 30m downtrend in the very near future. Once we get that, we will have to see if the 30m wants to run away with the market.
If you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
1Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
2Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
3Hr - 3912 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
4Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
6Hr - 3935 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
12Hr - 3980 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
As you can see by that, everything except the Weekly is now in an uptrend. Additionally, everything below the Daily is now in a higher high.
While I do believe this could be the signal and end of the bear market, in the shorter term I'd expect from movement back down here to gather trends to guide us upward if that is going to happen. So my expectation is we will see a 30m downtrend this morning. Once that happens, can we have a runaway market on the 30m? Maybe. We will see how things develop at that point.
Additionally, nearly every popular technical indicator is in an overbought stage, and some, immensely so. However, that is to be expected after a 5.5% day. Speaking of which, the only other 2 days in the history of the market to have over 200-point rallies in a single day, one was very whipsaw and one gave everything back. So not great guidance there.
In terms of Earnings, there are none today.
In terms of Economic Data - We have some Michigan expectation data coming out. That is at 10am EST, so after the market opens. Not sure it will rock the market, especially as everyone talks about yesterday's power move.
My sentiment going into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
Safe trading, remember your risk management plan
If you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
1Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
2Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
3Hr - 3912 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
4Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
6Hr - 3935 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
12Hr - 3980 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
As you can see by that, everything except the Weekly is now in an uptrend. Additionally, everything below the Daily is now in a higher high.
While I do believe this could be the signal and end of the bear market, in the shorter term I'd expect from movement back down here to gather trends to guide us upward if that is going to happen. So my expectation is we will see a 30m downtrend this morning. Once that happens, can we have a runaway market on the 30m? Maybe. We will see how things develop at that point.
Additionally, nearly every popular technical indicator is in an overbought stage, and some, immensely so. However, that is to be expected after a 5.5% day. Speaking of which, the only other 2 days in the history of the market to have over 200-point rallies in a single day, one was very whipsaw and one gave everything back. So not great guidance there.
In terms of Earnings, there are none today.
In terms of Economic Data - We have some Michigan expectation data coming out. That is at 10am EST, so after the market opens. Not sure it will rock the market, especially as everyone talks about yesterday's power move.
My sentiment going into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
Safe trading, remember your risk management plan
Note
We started getting the 30m downtrend at around 3955ish before we bounced back up.Note
Significant surprise to the downside to the Michigan expectations and sentiment. Surprised this hasn't help us send ourselves back off some of the highs here...Note
So what does that mean...So this means the sentiment of the population believes we will have continued and worse inflation, it shows sentiment about interest rates are a major concern, consumers are concerned that unemployment will begin to go up, and it shows that expectations is that we are having a worsening economy likely leading to less spending.
Note
On a micro level, we are beginning to see things forming into a downtrend. Only on the 5m and 3200 tick chart so far, so it is early yet.Note
I'm really surprised by the rally off the Michigan data. Be interesting to see if it holds out. Could be overshadowed by the FOMO rally of yesterday.Note
Not that it predicts market movements, but the DailyFX sentiment just went to 49% long, 51% short, before going back to 50/50.Note
We did get a 30m downtrend mark and immediately have gone higher since. No uptrend mark yet, we seem to be running along the 12hr uptrend line but not really passing through.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.