Last Week :
Last week Sunday Globex opened up inside Value over all the hourly and daily MAs signaling trend change from Fridays ON Flush and RTH Return to Value. Price pushed outside of Value before RTH and we got a push into Edge Resistance area which then gave a two day consolidation that failed back into Value after build up instead of pushing higher.
Hourly/Daily MAs below provided support as we didn't have enough volume to change the trend, instead price again rotated over the MAs and grinded higher into Resistance. Thursday Globex price grinded over resistance on low Volume and held over key area which brought in more buyers with morning Data giving it a push into new Ranges Value where those buyers could sell the product. If we had strength in new range we would have continued with buying into RTH to push price at least over New Ranges Mean but instead we stalled and closed with a rejection away from the Mean to end the Day.
This Week :
Pushes which are made on low volume and in ON hours over/under KEY areas like range tops/bottoms especially if they proved to be good resistance/support areas previously are very likely to fail and return back at least to the initial scene of the crime which looks to be the area under 780s after Thursdays Close.
Of course anything can happen and price may hold/accept in new range and we can start building up inside it to then visit higher targets later but we have been seeing topping patterns in this areas at/under 800s for quite some time and this weak push over the resistance is something to be careful with as market may be ready for correction to our HTF trend to finally start after very long run up with this being sort of blow off top move.
We will have to see how the price will open/hold Sunday Globex but things are pretty straight forward from here, if we cannot hold over/around Smaller Hourly's MAs over 820 - 10 area into or after RTH then this will signal failure in New Value which can trigger next steps to show failure in New Range and from there step by step could trigger a move back for lower MAs, back into/under Edge and eventually we would target lower targets like VAL / Move Into Value, from there we have to be careful because IF we actually go through Trend Change on Hourlys up here this time around then what we could see is holds that may seem like support but with changed trend market could continue giving continuation/holds/continuations lower as Failure in New Range can trigger a return all the way back into Previous Ranges Lower Edge. Does not mean it will or will not happen in one week but will eventually get there as long as price holds under upper Edge.
IF this happens then I would also warn about trend changing for a bit longer than what everyone is used to already as we may target even lower correction areas but that is HTF trend change with HTF Targets I have recently posted Daily Outlook which shows those areas. Careful with slower down days as if trend changes we would still be getting buying/covering on the way down so it may not just sell off quick and instead have more of leak lower days unless there is high volume.
For us to continue with strength and show acceptance in this new range we either need to Open and continue holding/pushing through New Value or at least hold over 780 - 90s on pull back with any dips into it having strong reaction away which would take us back over 805 - 10 area if we don't get that then we need to expect weakness.
Last week Sunday Globex opened up inside Value over all the hourly and daily MAs signaling trend change from Fridays ON Flush and RTH Return to Value. Price pushed outside of Value before RTH and we got a push into Edge Resistance area which then gave a two day consolidation that failed back into Value after build up instead of pushing higher.
Hourly/Daily MAs below provided support as we didn't have enough volume to change the trend, instead price again rotated over the MAs and grinded higher into Resistance. Thursday Globex price grinded over resistance on low Volume and held over key area which brought in more buyers with morning Data giving it a push into new Ranges Value where those buyers could sell the product. If we had strength in new range we would have continued with buying into RTH to push price at least over New Ranges Mean but instead we stalled and closed with a rejection away from the Mean to end the Day.
This Week :
Pushes which are made on low volume and in ON hours over/under KEY areas like range tops/bottoms especially if they proved to be good resistance/support areas previously are very likely to fail and return back at least to the initial scene of the crime which looks to be the area under 780s after Thursdays Close.
Of course anything can happen and price may hold/accept in new range and we can start building up inside it to then visit higher targets later but we have been seeing topping patterns in this areas at/under 800s for quite some time and this weak push over the resistance is something to be careful with as market may be ready for correction to our HTF trend to finally start after very long run up with this being sort of blow off top move.
We will have to see how the price will open/hold Sunday Globex but things are pretty straight forward from here, if we cannot hold over/around Smaller Hourly's MAs over 820 - 10 area into or after RTH then this will signal failure in New Value which can trigger next steps to show failure in New Range and from there step by step could trigger a move back for lower MAs, back into/under Edge and eventually we would target lower targets like VAL / Move Into Value, from there we have to be careful because IF we actually go through Trend Change on Hourlys up here this time around then what we could see is holds that may seem like support but with changed trend market could continue giving continuation/holds/continuations lower as Failure in New Range can trigger a return all the way back into Previous Ranges Lower Edge. Does not mean it will or will not happen in one week but will eventually get there as long as price holds under upper Edge.
IF this happens then I would also warn about trend changing for a bit longer than what everyone is used to already as we may target even lower correction areas but that is HTF trend change with HTF Targets I have recently posted Daily Outlook which shows those areas. Careful with slower down days as if trend changes we would still be getting buying/covering on the way down so it may not just sell off quick and instead have more of leak lower days unless there is high volume.
For us to continue with strength and show acceptance in this new range we either need to Open and continue holding/pushing through New Value or at least hold over 780 - 90s on pull back with any dips into it having strong reaction away which would take us back over 805 - 10 area if we don't get that then we need to expect weakness.
Note
Sunday Globex opened on a Gap outside of current ranges Value, ON action held over Hourlys MAs/over VAH. Action was grind up towards the Edge with pretty much end of day Spike into it, this could mean either slow action before FOMC tomorrow or that size is not willing to put positions on at ATH on a gap with slow PA as well as there is really no reason for this gap. Going into today market is pushing into/over Edge top which means IF we hold over 25 - 20s then that could = stability and keep the price in a sideways grind up and if bigger volume comes in it could see pushes higher BUT hitting Edge area of new ranges is usually a good spot that provides reaction in opposite direction, something I will be watching is IF we can't hold over 25 - 20 and instead see us eventually get under VWAP to change the current trend then I would be looking for a move back under 25 - 20 towards 900 and possibly towards VAH below, how far into it we get would be depending on Volume but would be at least a good chance to shoot back for 80s and if there is volume could see a push into Value for Sunday Globex Low. If price does stay over the Edge then I would be careful for again grindy action into/over 30 - 35 with possibly tapping out without bigger moves over 40 - 45.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.