ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Fri, (Oct 3)

08:30 Employment Situation (NFP, unemployment rate, wages) is scheduled, per BLS release calendar. Note: multiple outlets report the federal shutdown may delay key reports, including payrolls—treat 08:30 as tentative.
10:00 ISM Services PMI (third business day @ 10:00).

Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)

Kill-zones (ET): London 02:00–05:00 (optional), NY AM 09:30–11:00 (primary), NY PM 13:30–16:00 (primary).
Stops: Hard SL anchored to the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50 pts.
Targets: TP1 = major opposing level. At TP1: close 70%, set runner 30% to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3. No trail before TP2.
Time-stop: 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts per level per session.

Acceptance Continuation — LONG (Tier-1 A++)

Trigger: 15m body-through acceptance above 6,788 → 5m pullback holds ≥6,782 and re-closes up → 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,784–6,788 reclaim.
SL: ~6,778 (below trigger wick).
TPs: 6,800 → 6,810 → 6,822–6,830.
Invalidation: 15m close back inside ≤6,782.

3) Quick-Reclaim Bounce at PDL — LONG (Tier-2 A+)

Trigger: Sweep 6,742–6,746, instant reclaim with 5m close back above 6,746 → 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,744–6,746 after reclaim.
SL: 6,737–6,739 (below sweep low).
TPs: 6,762 → 6,774 → 6,786.
Sizing: Tier-2 (¾ size).

4) Breakdown & Hold — SHORT (Trend/Acceptance)

Trigger: 15m acceptance below 6,742, 5m pullback fails ≤6,742 and re-closes down.
Entry: 6,740–6,742.
SL: 6,748–6,750.
TPs: 6,725 → 6,710 → 6,695.
Invalidation: 15m close back inside ≥6,748.

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Rejection Fade at PDH — SHORT (Tier-1 A++)
Trigger: First touch 6,786–6,788 fails; 15m rejection close back inside ≤6,782, 5m lower-high + re-close down → 1m LH entry.
Entry: 6,782–6,786.
SL: 6,791–6,794 (above rejection wick).
TPs: 6,762 → 6,746 → 6,725.
Invalidation: 15m body > 6,788.

PA Thoughts:

Overnight (Asia/London):
Looking at the base case rotation between 6,758 and 6,786. I’ll be fading the edges on the first touch of this range (Setups 2/3). A break and acceptance beyond these edges would open up potential targets—6,800 to the upside and 6,725 to the downside. If the Asia session pushes into the R2 and faces rejection, I’ll look for a lower high back toward S1. However, if we see acceptance above, expect a grind toward 6,800–6,810.

NY AM (09:30–11:00):
Depending on the 08:30 data release, be prepared for potential fast, one-sided movement. I plan to stay on the sidelines until we see a 15-minute acceptance at R2/S2, then I’ll execute Setup 1 for an upward move or Setup 4 for a downward trend. If the data comes in delayed or shows benign results, anticipate the first impulse to shift to 10:00, and I’ll apply the same acceptance strategy at the nearest edge.

NY PM (13:30–16:00):
If we hold above 6,788 from the AM session, I’ll target the 6,800–6,810 range and manage runners toward 6,822–6,830 as we approach the close. Conversely, if the AM session fails between 6,786 and 6,788, I expect to see lower highs towards 6,758 and possibly down to 6,746. A clean break below 6,742 would open the door for a slide to 6,725.