ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Wed (Nov 5th)

News & timing (ET): ADP 8:15; ISM Services PMI 10:00; EIA Crude 10:30. Release status: all three are scheduled to run (not shutdown-affected).

Bias & context: Short-term trend remains lower after a sequence of 15m lower-highs/lows and failure to hold 6,793–6,805. Expect dip-buys to be sold unless 6,860+ is reclaimed and defended.

Overnight → NY forecast:
Base path: probe 6,748–6,756 into Asia/London, bounce to 6,793–6,805, then decide at NY open. Lose 6,748 on momentum and the magnet becomes 6,713–6,725.
Alt squeeze: reclaim and hold above 6,852–6,860, push to the 6,900–6,906 “gate”, then 6,940–6,955. Only above 6,955 can 6,968–6,985 and 7,020–7,052 come into play.
Bear extension: clean break and 15m body acceptance below 6,713–6,725 opens 6,660s (deeper extension) before any meaningful bounce.

Key-Zones

Resistance (top→bottom):
7,020–7,052 premium band (W3 major; first touch favors profit-taking)
6,968–6,985 measured-extension / weak-high pocket (W2)
6,940–6,955 prior distribution top / supply shelf (W2)
6,900–6,906 immediate ceiling “gate” (W2 pivotal)

Support (top→bottom):
6,852–6,860 defended floor / quick-reclaim bounce zone (W2)
6,793–6,805 swing-equilibrium magnet (W2)
6,748–6,756 next demand shelf / measured support (W2)
6,713–6,725 extension target and last strong shelf before deeper repricing (W3)

Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)

Rejection Fade (short): sell 6,852–6,860 or 6,900–6,906 after a 15m rejection close back inside → 5m re-close in your favor; use the 15m wick +0.25–0.50 pts as hard SL. TP1 = next opposing MAJOR level (e.g., 6,805 then 6,756).

Acceptance Continuation (long): only after a full-body 15m close above 6,860 and a 5m pullback that holds; target 6,900–6,906 → 6,940–6,955; invalidate on a 15m close back below 6,852.

Quick-Reclaim Bounce (Tier-2): flush into 6,748–6,756, instant reclaim on 1–5m, enter on first HL; TP1 = 6,793–6,805; invalidate on a 15m close back below the shelf.

Exhaustion Flush (Tier-3): if 6,748 breaks with force and a 15m body holds below, sell the first 1–5m LH; TP1 = 6,713–6,725; runner eyes 6,660s if momentum persists.

Risk & management (use consistently):

Instructions: only take a setup if TP1 ≥ 2.0R using the 15m-wick SL.
At TP1: close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; runner aims TP2 at the next major level.
No trailing before TP2. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts per level per session.
Kill-zones (ET): London 02:00–05:00 (optional ½–¾ size); NY AM 09:30–11:00 (primary); NY PM 13:30–16:00 (primary). Manage only 12:00–13:00.

What flips decision:
Bullish: sustained 15m acceptance above 6,860 then above 6,906 turns path toward 6,940–6,955 → 6,968–6,985.
Bearish: 15m acceptance below 6,748 invites 6,713–6,725; losing that level opens 6,660s before any notable bounce.