Plan for Monday:
Supports:
• 5796, 5783 (major), 5773-76 (major), 5764, 5758, 5751, 5745-40 (major), 5734, 5729, 5725, 5721 (major), 5716, 5711 (major), 5702-04 (major), 5697, 5694 (major), 5686, 5680, 5672 (major).
What I’m Watching:
• We had a big squeeze into the close, so now is not the best time to trade. After strong moves, both longs and shorts carry risks: chasing longs is risky under resistance, and shorts are against the trend, increasing the chance of consolidation. Sit back and let setups unfold.
• I typically wait for a volatility spike (like a dip) before new setups appear. With the close at 5805, there’s no immediate appeal in new trades. The first major support on Monday is 5783. I’m hesitant to buy first supports on Mondays due to the “Monday morning hangover effect,” especially after a strong Friday close, as ES often gives back gains on Monday. I’ll look for a reaction first. If intense selling occurs, I’ll wait for a flush and recovery above 5783 to long.
• The 5805 to 5740 range is a consolidation zone (flag). This could extend for days, so don’t be surprised if we retrace to bottom support Monday. If we lose 5783, we’ll likely work down the range. I’m not interested in bidding at 5764, but if there’s a flush to 5758 followed by a reclaim, I’d consider it. Below that, the 5740-45 zone could come back into play. A flush to 5740 early Monday could offer a final bid, but I’d prefer a test of that zone and a recovery of the session low at 5751 first. If 5740 breaks, I’d flip short as longs below become risky.
Resistances:
• 5805 (major), 5814 (major), 5821, 5828, 5839 (major), 5841, 5850 (major), 5860 (major), 5866, 5877 (major), 5881, 5885 (major), 5894, 5908 (major).
• As usual, I don’t short strength in ES. Maintaining a high win rate means avoiding setups with lower probabilities, aka fighting an uptrend. For those who do, 5805 would normally be a short spot, but it was just tested into the close, so be cautious. Above here, 5814 is another potential resistance, but if cleared, it’s clear blue skies to 5850 for buyers.
Buyer’s Case for Monday:
• The buyer’s case sees this flag breaking out. The broader structure is from 5805 to 5721, but a more actionable range is 5740-5805. If it holds, ES could break out to 5814, 5828, and eventually 5839+. The ultra-buyer’s case for Monday would see ES hold 5782 (perhaps undercut, but hold), ping-pong between 5782 and 5805, and attempt a direct breakout. Watch 5783 closely Monday.
Seller’s Case for Monday:
• The seller’s case begins with a break below 5740. Breakdown trades are tricky and often trap traders (80% of breakdowns fail). If you can’t tolerate these odds, it’s better to avoid them. I’d look for a test of 5740-45, which plays out for buyers before considering a short—likely around 5737 or lower. A failure at 5783 could also trigger shorts, but this is a more advanced trade. Ideally, we’d see a test of 5783 or a failed breakdown. After longs bounce, I’d short below that structure, probably near 5771.
Summary for Monday:
• The new consolidation range is 5805 to 5740-45. This could develop in various ways, but my lean is toward further filling out, meaning a pullback to start Monday, potentially to 5783. If buyers are motivated, that could be the lows, but if we lose 5783, a test of 5740-45 is likely. A breakout of the range targets new all-time highs. If 5740 fails, look for short opportunities.
Supports:
• 5796, 5783 (major), 5773-76 (major), 5764, 5758, 5751, 5745-40 (major), 5734, 5729, 5725, 5721 (major), 5716, 5711 (major), 5702-04 (major), 5697, 5694 (major), 5686, 5680, 5672 (major).
What I’m Watching:
• We had a big squeeze into the close, so now is not the best time to trade. After strong moves, both longs and shorts carry risks: chasing longs is risky under resistance, and shorts are against the trend, increasing the chance of consolidation. Sit back and let setups unfold.
• I typically wait for a volatility spike (like a dip) before new setups appear. With the close at 5805, there’s no immediate appeal in new trades. The first major support on Monday is 5783. I’m hesitant to buy first supports on Mondays due to the “Monday morning hangover effect,” especially after a strong Friday close, as ES often gives back gains on Monday. I’ll look for a reaction first. If intense selling occurs, I’ll wait for a flush and recovery above 5783 to long.
• The 5805 to 5740 range is a consolidation zone (flag). This could extend for days, so don’t be surprised if we retrace to bottom support Monday. If we lose 5783, we’ll likely work down the range. I’m not interested in bidding at 5764, but if there’s a flush to 5758 followed by a reclaim, I’d consider it. Below that, the 5740-45 zone could come back into play. A flush to 5740 early Monday could offer a final bid, but I’d prefer a test of that zone and a recovery of the session low at 5751 first. If 5740 breaks, I’d flip short as longs below become risky.
Resistances:
• 5805 (major), 5814 (major), 5821, 5828, 5839 (major), 5841, 5850 (major), 5860 (major), 5866, 5877 (major), 5881, 5885 (major), 5894, 5908 (major).
• As usual, I don’t short strength in ES. Maintaining a high win rate means avoiding setups with lower probabilities, aka fighting an uptrend. For those who do, 5805 would normally be a short spot, but it was just tested into the close, so be cautious. Above here, 5814 is another potential resistance, but if cleared, it’s clear blue skies to 5850 for buyers.
Buyer’s Case for Monday:
• The buyer’s case sees this flag breaking out. The broader structure is from 5805 to 5721, but a more actionable range is 5740-5805. If it holds, ES could break out to 5814, 5828, and eventually 5839+. The ultra-buyer’s case for Monday would see ES hold 5782 (perhaps undercut, but hold), ping-pong between 5782 and 5805, and attempt a direct breakout. Watch 5783 closely Monday.
Seller’s Case for Monday:
• The seller’s case begins with a break below 5740. Breakdown trades are tricky and often trap traders (80% of breakdowns fail). If you can’t tolerate these odds, it’s better to avoid them. I’d look for a test of 5740-45, which plays out for buyers before considering a short—likely around 5737 or lower. A failure at 5783 could also trigger shorts, but this is a more advanced trade. Ideally, we’d see a test of 5783 or a failed breakdown. After longs bounce, I’d short below that structure, probably near 5771.
Summary for Monday:
• The new consolidation range is 5805 to 5740-45. This could develop in various ways, but my lean is toward further filling out, meaning a pullback to start Monday, potentially to 5783. If buyers are motivated, that could be the lows, but if we lose 5783, a test of 5740-45 is likely. A breakout of the range targets new all-time highs. If 5740 fails, look for short opportunities.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.