EURUSD Is Compressing in a Falling Channel

2 days ago

📊 MARKET STRUCTURE BREAKDOWN (H1)
1️⃣ Bullish Impulse → Start of Correction
Price created a strong upward leg, setting the tone for a bullish environment.
Right after that, EU shifted into a controlled descending channel a normal corrective phase.

2️⃣ Falling Channel Structure
Inside the channel:
-Clear LH → LL sequences
-Repeated taps on both channel boundaries
-Each push into the Support Zone shows strong buying reaction (long wicks, V-bounces)
This shows buyers defending the zone, not sellers taking control.

3️⃣ Current Position
-Price is moving in the mid-to-lower part of the channel, heading back toward the Support Zone
-This aligns with how price has been behaving for the past several days — liquidity sweep → bounce → move toward upper channel.
The projection you drew is absolutely logical:
A final sweep deep into the Support Zone before a bullish breakout.

🎯 TRADING SIGNAL
Entry Zone:
1.1595 – 1.1620 (deep in Support Zone + channel bottom)
Stop Loss:
Below structure: 1.1560
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.1653
TP2: 1.1664
TP3 (major breakout): 1.1688

Why this setup works
The falling channel is corrective, not bearish.
Strong reaction every time price tests Support Zone.
Liquidity tends to build below the channel → ideal environment for a sweep + expansion.
The highest probability scenario:
Final sweep down → bullish reversal → breakout toward 1.1688.

📈 SHORT SUMMARY
EU is correcting inside a falling channel, but buyers remain in control at the Support Zone.
Expect one more liquidity sweep before a strong upward breakout.

yesterday

Trade active

✔️ MARKET UPDATE — FOLLOW-THROUGH CONFIRMATION & NEW OUTLOOK
Yesterday’s bullish projection on EURUSD played out exactly as expected.
The falling channel behaved as a corrective structure not a bearish reversal and the deep sweep into the Support Zone triggered the anticipated upside expansion.

Well done to all traders who trusted the structure.
You followed the plan, waited for the liquidity sweep, and executed with discipline.
That’s why the move unfolded in your favor: patience > predictions.

analysis yesterday clearly mapped out the sequence:
- Controlled falling channel
- Liquidity buildup below structure
- Repeated buyer defense at the Support Zone
High-probability sweep → bullish breakout
And the market delivered exactly that.

📌 NEW OUTLOOK (Updated Today)
With the corrective channel now nearing completion and bullish order flow strengthening underneath, EURUSD continues to set up for medium-term bullish continuation.

Key factors driving this outlook:
Momentum is shifting away from the corrective structure
The Support Zone remains heavily defended
Macro backdrop (weakening USD expectations + improving EUR sentiment) supports risk-on currencies
Liquidity behavior continues to favor upside expansion rather than sustained downside

The market is transitioning from correction → expansion, and the bullish leg targets remain valid as long as price holds above internal structure.

11 hours ago

Trade closed: target reached

EURUSD Update — Bearish Trend Confirmed with Macro Backing

EURUSD has played out exactly as forecast the anticipated bearish turn has begun and price action is now trending lower. Congratulations to all traders who trusted the structure and followed the analysis. The market responded precisely as the setup suggested.

The shift into a new downward phase is not happening in isolation. Several macro factors currently influencing global FX markets support this bearish transition:

1. U.S. Dollar Strength on Safe-Haven Flows
Despite recent risk rallies, the U.S. dollar has shown intermittent strength as volatility in global markets remains elevated. Investors continue to hedge with USD amid geopolitical uncertainties, which naturally puts pressure on EURUSD.

2. Diverging Monetary Policy Expectations
While the ECB has maintained a cautious stance and signaled limited near-term easing, recent data in the U.S. have kept expectations alive for tighter or less accommodative pricing in the short run. This divergence in monetary outlooks can support a softer euro relative to the dollar.

3. Mixed Risk Sentiment Towards Week’s Close
As we approach the end of the week, markets often digest macro releases (such as U.S. jobs data, economic indicators, and PMI prints). This has contributed to choppy price action and a clearer move to the downside for the pair as traders reprice expectations.

4. Technical Confirmation of Downtrend
Price broke key support levels, formed lower highs and lower lows, and now sits beneath structural inflection points — confirming the new bearish bias is real, not temporary. This aligns with typical corrective behavior following crucial macro signals.

📉 In summary
EURUSD has started a new bearish leg exactly as projected. The combination of USD support, policy divergence, and evolving risk sentiment all reinforce the downtrend. While short-term volatility may persist, the structure suggests continued downside pressure until a clearer macro catalyst shifts the trajectory.

Stay alert to macro releases this week upcoming U.S. economic data and central bank communications will remain key drivers of market direction.