Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Full ducking bear mode. Zero doubt we will get a correction. Market was waiting for a catalyst to start the profit taking and it’s likely full on now. Can I be wrong about this selling again and some “positive” trade-related news comes out on which we will print another new ath? Sure. Sometimes it’s just about putting on a trade with a decent stop and holding it until it reaches your target.
current market cycle: trading range - bull trend on the lower tf was broken on Friday and we could be in a new bear trend down to 23000 or lower
key levels for next week: 23000 - 25000
bull case: Bulls want a pull-back and the higher they can get it, the more afraid the bears become again. If bulls are strong, they will retrace more than 50% of Friday’s selling, which is around 24550. If they do so, the downside will likely be limited to maybe another leg which might hit 24000 or not. As of now, given the news and the 4h chart, that thesis is very low probability.
Invalidation is below 24200.
bear case: Bears want to keep this selling as strong as possible now and quickly get us to 24000. There most will take a good chunk off and see how high we can bounce. The most important part for the bears now is to keep any bounce as shallow as possible. Best case scenario would be to move sideways around 24300 to max 24400 and then down to 24000. The quick move down is so important because that would open up a measured move down to 23000 and will be my favored path for the next days/weeks.
Invalidation is above 24550.
short term: Full ducking bear mode.
medium-long term from 2025-10-12: 23000.
comment: Full ducking bear mode. Zero doubt we will get a correction. Market was waiting for a catalyst to start the profit taking and it’s likely full on now. Can I be wrong about this selling again and some “positive” trade-related news comes out on which we will print another new ath? Sure. Sometimes it’s just about putting on a trade with a decent stop and holding it until it reaches your target.
current market cycle: trading range - bull trend on the lower tf was broken on Friday and we could be in a new bear trend down to 23000 or lower
key levels for next week: 23000 - 25000
bull case: Bulls want a pull-back and the higher they can get it, the more afraid the bears become again. If bulls are strong, they will retrace more than 50% of Friday’s selling, which is around 24550. If they do so, the downside will likely be limited to maybe another leg which might hit 24000 or not. As of now, given the news and the 4h chart, that thesis is very low probability.
Invalidation is below 24200.
bear case: Bears want to keep this selling as strong as possible now and quickly get us to 24000. There most will take a good chunk off and see how high we can bounce. The most important part for the bears now is to keep any bounce as shallow as possible. Best case scenario would be to move sideways around 24300 to max 24400 and then down to 24000. The quick move down is so important because that would open up a measured move down to 23000 and will be my favored path for the next days/weeks.
Invalidation is above 24550.
short term: Full ducking bear mode.
medium-long term from 2025-10-12: 23000.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.