Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral. We can drop a little more until we hit the bull trend line and weekly 20ema around 23800 but we don’t have to. I don’t think you can short down here and hope for more downside after last week. Market is barely moving and on the monthly chart we have been going nowhere since May. Can’t expect a big range expansion without a catalyst. 24100 is the neutral price for this for the time being.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 23000 - 24750
bull case: Bulls want to keep the market making higher lows and stay at least inside the triangle. They want another bounce above the weekly 20ema and could trade at least back up to 24400 if the triangle is correct. The bears have not been able to print more than 2 red weeks since March so bulls know that bears are not strong and not many want to risk selling low in fear of getting trapped.
Invalidation is below 23447
bear case: Bears could to pushing lower and touch the weekly 20ema around 23800 but how many are willing to risk it? Where would they place their stop? 24115? That’s a stupid trade and given the current structure, selling below 24000 is not worth it. There is a small chance that we get down to 23800ish but for now I can’t see it. Best bears can hope for is to stay below 24200ish and leave a decent gap open.
Invalidation is above 24400
short term: As neutral as can be.
medium-long term from 2025-08-24: 23000 is my target for the next weeks. Need a catalyst.
comment: Neutral. We can drop a little more until we hit the bull trend line and weekly 20ema around 23800 but we don’t have to. I don’t think you can short down here and hope for more downside after last week. Market is barely moving and on the monthly chart we have been going nowhere since May. Can’t expect a big range expansion without a catalyst. 24100 is the neutral price for this for the time being.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 23000 - 24750
bull case: Bulls want to keep the market making higher lows and stay at least inside the triangle. They want another bounce above the weekly 20ema and could trade at least back up to 24400 if the triangle is correct. The bears have not been able to print more than 2 red weeks since March so bulls know that bears are not strong and not many want to risk selling low in fear of getting trapped.
Invalidation is below 23447
bear case: Bears could to pushing lower and touch the weekly 20ema around 23800 but how many are willing to risk it? Where would they place their stop? 24115? That’s a stupid trade and given the current structure, selling below 24000 is not worth it. There is a small chance that we get down to 23800ish but for now I can’t see it. Best bears can hope for is to stay below 24200ish and leave a decent gap open.
Invalidation is above 24400
short term: As neutral as can be.
medium-long term from 2025-08-24: 23000 is my target for the next weeks. Need a catalyst.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.