Analysis techniques – Arabica Coffee Futures (Dec 2025)

Analysis techniques – Arabica Coffee Futures (Dec 2025)
Date: Oct 06, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: KCZ25

1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
December Arabica coffee rose +2.28% to 388.35 cents/lb, breaking above the 384–385 consolidation zone and confirming a short-term recovery.
The medium-term structure remains bullish from the 272.05 low, with a key support area around 350. Sustaining this zone may lead prices toward 420 cents/lb, the highest resistance since May 2025.

2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 384.6 – 420 – 450
Support: 350 – 316.5 – 272

3. Detailed Technical Analysis
(1) Short-term Trend:
Momentum strengthened as prices reclaimed the 384–385 area. Holding above 380 reinforces the near-term uptrend.
(2) Volume:
Volume expansion during the latest rally reflects renewed speculative buying.
(3) Wave Structure:
Arabica appears to be in wave 3 of a medium-term recovery cycle, targeting 420 – 450. A confirmed breakout above 420 could extend the move into wave 5 toward 450.
(4) Confirmation Signals:
A daily close above 388–390 would confirm bullish continuation, while a drop below 350 would weaken the broader structure.

4. VNC View
Short Term: Supported by low ICE certified stocks and a stronger BRL reducing farmer selling.
Medium Term: Brazilian 2025/26 crop remains strong, but rising logistics costs and recovering consumption in the US/EU support price stability.
Risk Factors: Currency volatility (BRL/USD) and prolonged La Niña weather conditions in South America may distort supply-demand balance.

5. Suggested Technical Strategies

Preferred Long Setup:
Entry: 384 – 388
TP: 420 – 450
SL: 350
Probability: 65%

Counter-trend Short Setup:
Entry: 418 – 420
TP: 370 – 350
SL: 425
Probability: 35%

6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Roasters / Importers: Lock in purchases around 380 – 390 to hedge against potential rally toward 420.
Exporters: Delay sales once above 400 and use forward hedges to capture upside if the uptrend extends.