KEI – Bullish Continuation Setup with Breakout Potential

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🚀 KEI – Bullish Continuation Setup with Breakout Potential
📅 Setup Date: 18.07.2025 | ⏱ Timeframe: Daily
📍 Strategy: Defined-Risk Bullish Spread (Short-Term Swing with OI Confirmation)
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🔍 Overview
Overall Bias: Bullish with supportive Put buildup
Spot Price: ₹3933.3
Trend: Sustained uptrend with OI buildup on CE/PE sides
Volatility (IV): 40–42%, stable with light compression
Ideal Strategy Mix: Defined-risk bullish strategy like vertical call spread
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1️⃣ Bullish Trade (Naked options as per trend)
Best CE: Buy 3900 CE @ ₹145.05
Why:
• Highest OI among CEs (7.05L) with strong Long Buildup
• Good volume and premium correction (▼16.32%) = cheaper entry
• Spot just above strike → early breakout zone
• Stable IV (40.34) gives clean delta tracking
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2️⃣ Bearish Trade (Naked options as per trend)
Best PE: Sell 3850 PE @ ₹82.65
Why:
• Long Buildup (OI ↑10.3%) on PE shows bullish support
• Strike sits just below spot → safety buffer
• IV stable and theta erosion beneficial
• Rich premium for selling with bullish bias intact
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⚙️ 3️⃣ Strategy Trade (As per trend + OI data)
Strategy: Bull Call Spread → Buy 3900 CE / Sell 4100 CE
        Net Debit: ₹145.05 - ₹62.35 = ₹82.70
        Max Profit: ₹200 - ₹82.70 = ₹117.30
        Max Loss: ₹82.70
        Risk:Reward ≈ 1 : 1.42 ✅ Within range
        Lot Size: 175
        Total Risk: ₹14,472.50
        Max Profit: ₹20,527.50
Breakeven Point: ₹3982.70
Reversal Exit Level: Exit if Spot < ₹3879.32 (bullish spread invalidation below support)
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Why:
• Strong Long Buildup on 3900 CE and 4100 PE creates clean structure
• Risk:Reward = 1:1.42 fits strategy filters
• IV cooling supports call spread entry
• Breakout continuation likely with defined risk
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📘 My Trading Setup Rules
Avoid Gap Plays
→ Check pre-open price action to avoid trades influenced by gap-ups/gap-downs.
Breakout Entry Only
→ Enter trades only if price breaks previous day’s High (for bullish trades) or Low (for bearish trades).
Watch Volume for Confirmation
→ Monitor volume closely. No volume = No trade.
Enter on Strong Candle + Volume
→ Execute the trade only if a strong candle appears with increasing volume in the direction of the trade.
Defined Risk:Reward Only
→ Take trades only if R:R is favorable (ideally ≥ 1:2).(Safe R:R – 1:1)
Premium Disclaimer
→ Option premiums shown are based on EOD prices — real-time premiums may vary during execution.
Time Frame Preference
→ Trade with your preferred time frame — this strategy works across intraday or positional setups.
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⚠ Disclaimer (Please Read):
• These Trades are shared for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
• I am not a SEBI-registered advisor.
• The information provided here is based on personal market observation.
• No buy/sell recommendations are being made.
• Please do your own research or consult a registered financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
• Trading involves risk. Always use proper risk management.
I am not responsible for trading decisions based on this post.
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