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NaughtyPines NaughtyPines AMD, D,
AMD: OPENING: AMD AUG 18TH 13 SHORT PUT/OCT 20TH 11 LONG PUT DIAGONAL
131 0 7
AMD, D
OPENING: AMD AUG 18TH 13 SHORT PUT/OCT 20TH 11 LONG PUT DIAGONAL

... for an .11 credit. Here, I'm looking for a defined risk strategy with which to play earnings that doesn't subject me to the risk on both sides if the underlying rips hard in a larger than expected move. There are several different ways to play these: (a) Wait for the short put to approach worthless. At that point, examine what the long is worth. If its ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines IBM, D,
IBM: OPENING: IBM JULY 28TH 145/148/160/162.5 IRON CONDOR
45 0 6
IBM, D
OPENING: IBM JULY 28TH 145/148/160/162.5 IRON CONDOR

... for a 1.10 credit. It announces earnings today after market close. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 54% Max Profit: $110/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $190/contract Break Evens: 146.90/161.10 (Wide of expected move, both sides) Delta: .37 Theta: 6.08 Notes: The strikes were pesky on the call side. It was either go five-wide or 2 1/2 wide on the ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D,
VIX: OPENING: VIX AUG 16TH 9/12.5/12.5/16 IRON FLY
49 2 7
VIX, D
OPENING: VIX AUG 16TH 9/12.5/12.5/16 IRON FLY

Going to bite on an August setup here ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $190/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $160/contract Break Evens: 10.40/14.40 Theta: .94 Delta: 17.02 Notes: Previously, the recommendation was to shoot for 25% max profit on these. If you do that, however, you'll have to wait until the very last moment, generally, so shooting for 10% max on ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines IWM, D,
IWM: OPENING: IWM AUG 18TH SHORT PUT/NOV 17TH LONG PUT CALENDAR
29 0 4
IWM, D
OPENING: IWM AUG 18TH SHORT PUT/NOV 17TH LONG PUT CALENDAR

... for a 2.71 db. I don't have any IWM on, and we're in a low volatility market, and calendars are a low volatility strategy, so putting one on here ... . The back month is setup around the 40 delta; the front at the same strike as the back. Unfortunately, as with all calendars and diagonals, they're aren't a good deal of metrics to look at. Here's what we do ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPY, D,
SPY: OPENING: SPY SEPT 1ST 238/241/249/251 IRON CONDOR
41 0 6
SPY, D
OPENING: SPY SEPT 1ST 238/241/249/251 IRON CONDOR

... for a .95 credit. I really wanted to go with the highest implied volatility broad index exchange-traded fund (SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA), 45 days until expiration, but the bid/asks were wide on both IWM and QQQ in the Sept 1st expiry, so went with SPY instead, which had a much tighter bid/ask. The short options here are set up around the 30 delta, so I'm somewhat ...

AlfonsoMoreno AlfonsoMoreno PRO SHOP, M, Long ,
SHOP: Shopify long term demand level buy setup around 46.18, long bias
64 2 9
SHOP, M Long
Shopify long term demand level buy setup around 46.18, long bias

Shopify American stock buy setups at monthly demand level at 46.18 #SHOP. Strong bullish impulses creating weekly and monthly demand levels to go long at. This is a long term buy setup, no supply levels to the left since it's making all time highs. Buying at monthly and weekly demand zones is the way to go.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPY, D,
SPY: OPENING: SPY SEPT 15TH 238/241/249/251 IRON CONDOR
45 0 5
SPY, D
OPENING: SPY SEPT 15TH 238/241/249/251 IRON CONDOR

... for a .93 credit. I really wanted to open up a QQQ 45 DTE, but a Sept 8th expiry is not yet available, so this will have to do. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 43% Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $207/contract Break Evens: 240.07/251.93 (~expected move on both sides) Theta: .77 Delta: -2.4 Notes: Will look to take profit at 50% max.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines CSX, D,
CSX: OPENING: CSX JULY 28TH 50.5/53/56/58.5 IRON CONDOR
34 0 5
CSX, D
OPENING: CSX JULY 28TH 50.5/53/56/58.5 IRON CONDOR

... for a .99 credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 50% Max Profit: $99/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $151/contract Break Evens: 52.01/56.99 (Slightly wide of expected move) Delta: -3.55 Theta: 4.77 Notes: Will look to manage at 50% max.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines NFLX, D,
NFLX: THE WEEK AHEAD: NFLX, IBM, CSX, EBAY, MSFT EARNINGS
144 0 8
NFLX, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: NFLX, IBM, CSX, EBAY, MSFT EARNINGS

Although many of next week's earnings plays aren't up to my usual snuff due to lower implied volatility invading the entire market with VIX at sub-10 levels, some of these announcements might offer decent premium even though the metrics for a volatility contraction play aren't ideal (>70 implied volatility rank, >50 background implied volatility). Here, I'm ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines QQQ, D,
QQQ: OPENING: QQQ AUG 25TH 131/134/143/145 IRON CONDOR
50 4 9
QQQ, D
OPENING: QQQ AUG 25TH 131/134/143/145 IRON CONDOR

... for a 1.10/contract credit. QQQ still has the highest implied volatility of the four "majors" (SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA). Going with the expiry nearest 45 DTE. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 51% Max Profit: $110/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $190/contract Break Evens: 132.90/144.10 Delta: -1.38 Theta: 1.12 Notes: Will look to manage at 50% max.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines QCOM, D,
QCOM: THE WEEK AHEAD: (WHAT'S LEFT OF IT) -- XLK, QQQ SETUPS
85 0 10
QCOM, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: (WHAT'S LEFT OF IT) -- XLK, QQQ SETUPS

With this holiday foreshortened trading week, premium selling pickings remain slim. The vast majority of underlyings with 52-week >70 implied volatility rank are in stocks that are ramping up for earnings -- e.g., QCOM (71) with earnings in 15, MSFT (79) (16 days), AAPL (75) (21). In that case, you might as well wait to look at those closer to announcement to ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines QQQ, D,
QQQ: TRADE IDEA: QQQ AUG 18TH 132/135/145/147 IRON CONDOR
60 1 7
QQQ, D
TRADE IDEA: QQQ AUG 18TH 132/135/145/147 IRON CONDOR

It's got the highest implied volatility among the broad-index exchange traded funds. Going delta neutral here to get some theta on and decaying. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 51% Max Profit: $102/contract Max Loss: $198/contract Break Evens: 133.98/146.02 Theta: .98 Delta: .59 Notes: Will look to manage at 50% max.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XLE, D,
XLE: THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP/OIH/XLE, COST
77 0 8
XLE, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP/OIH/XLE, COST

Premium Selling For the umpteenth week in a row, there is little in the market for high quality premium selling plays. Screening for 52-week >70 implied volatility rank, you'll basically get one quality hit at the moment, and that is COST, which has dipped significantly on AMZN/WFM merger news. A few names are approaching that 70 mark, but they have earnings ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines TLT, D, Long ,
TLT: TRADE IDEA: TLT AUG 18TH 125/OCT 20TH 121 PUT DIAGONAL
67 0 7
TLT, D Long
TRADE IDEA: TLT AUG 18TH 125/OCT 20TH 121 PUT DIAGONAL

Here, I'm just looking to do some old school inversely correlated action in treasuries to compliment a bullish SPY diagonal I'm working separately. Ordinarily, I'd hedge a bullish SPY setup with a bearish SPY setup (e.g., an iron condor or a double diagonal) but working the call side of SPY is somewhat pesky due to skew, and I'd rather keep things somewhat simple ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines QQQ, D,
QQQ: TRADE IDEA: QQQ AUG 18TH 127/130/145/147 IRON CONDOR
48 0 8
QQQ, D
TRADE IDEA: QQQ AUG 18TH 127/130/145/147 IRON CONDOR

The Q's have the highest implied volatility rank among the four major index exchange traded funds. That being said, I generally look to bring in one-third the width of the widest wing with these with the short options set up at the 20 delta, and I'm not getting that here, so it's less than ideal ... . The metrics: Probability of Profit: 62% Max Profit: ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines COST, D,
COST: TRADE IDEA: COST JULY 21ST 155/158/175/178 IRON CONDOR
107 0 12
COST, D
TRADE IDEA: COST JULY 21ST 155/158/175/178 IRON CONDOR

After news of AMZN's acquisition of WFM, COST's implied volatility has popped here, with its implied volatility rank ramping up to the 67th percentile over the preceding 52-week period, and with background implied volatility at 21%, making a premium selling play potentially worthwhile. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 64% Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss/Buying ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D,
VIX: OPENING: VIX JULY 21ST 9/12.5/12.5/16 IRON FLY
43 0 11
VIX, D
OPENING: VIX JULY 21ST 9/12.5/12.5/16 IRON FLY

Without a ton of stuff to do here premium selling wise that meets my standards, layering on some more VIX fly in the July expiry (35 DTE). July /VX futures contract is currently trading at 12.45, so that's where I set up the short straddle body of the set up. Metrics: Max Profit: 1.82/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 1.68/contract Break Evens: ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines QQQ, D,
QQQ: THE WEEK AHEAD: QQQ AND XOP/XLE
91 0 10
QQQ, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: QQQ AND XOP/XLE

With Friday seeing a pop in QQQ implied volatility (six month implied volatility rank at 100; background implied at 19%), I'm looking to add in a touch of broad index core position here in the Q's, having just exited all my June setups. I have depicted the neutral assumption, defined risk July 21st 131/134/2 x 145/2 x 146 iron condor here (probability of profit: ...

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