$MSTR: Rough sailing for Saylor. Trading strategy for Strategy.

Since the largest crypto liquidation event on 10th of Oct which yipped out 19 B $ of leveraged positions the Crypto market finds itself in turmoil. One of the major causalities of all this FUD has been MicroStrategy. The stock MSTR is now trading 2.3% below the NAV. That means the cos. MSTR is 2.3% less valuable than the amount of BTC it holds on to its balance sheet. This signifies the market is pricing a lot of short to medium term downturn in the fundamentals of the stock and a credit event in the worst-case scenario leading to a liquidity and a solvency crisis.

From its ATH in Nov 2024 the stock has already lost 68% of the value. On 17th Sept I wrote in this blog that there is more downside expected in $MSTR/BTC with support @ 0.002 BTC which indicates a price of 160 $ - 170 $ for $MSTR.

Is MSTR only game in town? Charts seem to disagree. for NASDAQ:MSTR by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView

Currently the stock is @ 170 $. If we plot the Fib levels on the weekly from the bottoms of the FTX blowout in 2023 we clearly see the support and resistance levels for the stock. If MSTR has 2 weekly close below 170 $ then we might easily visit the 140 $ range which seems to be a previous support level. If it breaks below 140 $ then we can easily see a 100 $ on $MSTR. Another key metrics is the short interest in the stock which is @ 10% of the current float.

Trade Set Up: MSTR to see more downside before any turnaround. Below 170 $ the stock can go down to 140 $ and eventually finding support @ 100. MSTR / BTC may visit 0.0015.