Ferrari RACE Technicals Led Entry With 100% Upside in 2026

7 hours ago

RACE is in a measured correction after its July 2025 ATH (~$517). A repeat of prior ~35% corrections (2018/19; 2022) implies a symmetry target near ~$336 (35% off $516), creating a high-quality “buy the pullback” setup for smart investors willing to scale in before fundamentals re-assert. With the current price around ~$400, a full 35% retrace would complete near the low-$330s; prior cycles then delivered outsized recoveries. We view the $330–$360 zone as a strategic accumulation area for 100%+ multi-year upside potential, with a 2026 bull target >$700 assuming backlog support, margin resilience, and successful new product execution. ATH/price data cross-checked from market sources.
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Executive Summary

• Thesis: Ferrari remains the purest “luxury-automotive as luxury-goods” equity: scarce supply, sold-out order book into 2026, rising personalization, and a carefully staged electrification roadmap supported by the new Maranello e-building. Even with macro or tariff noise, Ferrari’s brand, pricing power, and capital discipline underpin premium multiples.
• Why now: The stock’s technical correction is doing the valuation work for you. Into weakness, we favor staged entries ahead of 2026 catalysts EV debut & deliveries; new model cadence; ongoing buybacks.
• Key risks we underwrite: macro wealth shocks; execution on first BEV; regulatory/tariff volatility; FX EUR/USD; and luxury demand rotation. Offsetting: backlog visibility, personalization mix, and buybacks.
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Ferrari (RACE) Catalyst Scorecard and 2026 Outlook

1) 🏎 New Model Launches & Portfolio — 9/10

Fresh models e.g., Roma Spider, 296 family, 12Cilindri plus track-focused/limited series sustain mix and ASPs. Purosangue remains capacity-constrained by design ≤~20% of shipments, supporting scarcity. Notes: media and management have repeatedly referenced Purosangue caps and order pauses. Rumor watch: the market expects additional halo launches into 2026; specifics beyond official IR should be treated as provisional.

2) 🔌 EV & Hybrid Transition — 9/10

Ferrari’s e-building went live in 2024 to manufacture ICE, hybrid, and the first BEV, enabling in-house e-axles/battery work and flexible capacity. Management reiterated an EV unveiling in October 2025 with sales beginning 2026; external reporting often cites incremental capacity of ~6,000 units management hasn’t fixed a public number. Strategy: electrify without diluting brand character.

3) 💰 Pricing Power & Personalization — 9/10

Personalizations are a structurally expanding, high-margin revenue stream—running ~~20% of revenues by 2025 commentary—while ultra-limited models e.g., Daytona SP3, 499P Modificata add mix tailwinds. Ferrari consistently emphasizes “quality of revenues over volume.”

4) 🌍 Global Demand & Wealth Resilience — 8/10

Order visibility remains exceptional, with management and financial press citing books effectively filled into 2026 even amid tariffs and China softness; U.S./EU/Middle East wealth pools anchor demand. Hybrids already approach half of deliveries, de-risking compliance.

5) 📈 Order Backlog & Supply Discipline — 8/10

Production is deliberately capped; Purosangue constrained to protect exclusivity. Backlog sold-out deep into 2026 reduces cyclicality and protects margins through mix and scarcity.

6) 💵 Shareholder Returns & Capital Allocation — 7.5/10

Ferrari is methodically executing a multi-year €2bn buyback through 2026 alongside dividends, while maintaining heavy R&D and capex for electrification and new platforms. Recent IR updates confirm ongoing tranches.

7) ⚖ Tariffs & Trade — 7/10

The 2025 U.S.–EU deal reduced tariff pressure versus prior peaks, a modest tailwind to margins and pricing optics for EU autos; Ferrari has shown ability to pass costs to clientele.

8) 🏆 Brand & Competitive Moat — 9/10

Ferrari’s moat resembles top luxury houses more than automakers: waiting lists, repeat/collector buyers, F1 halo, and unrivaled pricing power. This underpins luxury-goods-like multiples and high returns. (Multiple third-party and IR references.)

9) ⚔ Competition & Luxury Peers — 6/10

Peers Lamborghini, McLaren, Rimac, etc. lack Ferrari’s breadth/brand equity. Luxury EV entrants pose incremental risk, but Ferrari’s pacing plus customer loyalty mitigate. General industry assessment; monitor EV launches from peers.

10) 📉 Macro & Economic Cycle — 6/10

Ferrari isn’t immune to wealth drawdowns; however, backlog and personalization provide buffers. Management has historically protected price/mix by flexing volumes if needed.
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2026 Outlook What Must Go Right

• EV milestone: Successful first-BEV launch & deliveries with waitlists experience parity with hybrids; no brand dilution.
• Mix strength: Purosangue/12Cilindri/hyper/limited series maintain ASPs and margins; personalization share inches higher.
• Financial delivery: Hitting or beating upgraded plan markers into 2026 after Ferrari indicated it is tracking ahead on profitability versus the original 2026 targets.
• Capital returns: Continued cadence on the €2bn buyback; dividend growth within FCF discipline.
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Valuation Snapshot

• Quality context: Ferrari’s 2024 print and IR commentary emphasize expanding mix/personalization and ahead-of-plan profitability into 2025/26. Refer to FY24 results + CMD updates.
• Peer framing: Treat RACE as luxury Hermès-like scarcity rather than auto OEM. This justifies premium EV/EBITDA and P/E vs mass OEMs, provided growth/margins hold.
• Multiple work: On pullbacks to the mid-$300s, implied 2026E EV/EBITDA compresses to attractive territory vs luxury comps assuming consensus-style growth/margins investors should plug house estimates.
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Scenarios & Targets

• Bull ($700–$750) — Successful BEV introduction, backlog conversion, personalization >20% of sales, steady buybacks, and benign macro.
• Base ($580–$620) — Order book carries revenues; margins hold with disciplined volumes; EV ramps without profit drag.
• Bear ($350–$400) — Wealth shock or EV stumble; cancellations rise, mix weakens; tariff/FX pressure re-rates the multiple. Risk case consistent with technical $330s correction.
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Entry & Risk Management Plan

• Where to buy: Scale in $360–$380; add aggressively $330–$360 35% measured-move zone.
• Sizing: For a diversified HNWI book, a core 1.5–3.0% NAV position, with room to add +100–150 bps on capitulation into the $330s.
• Stops/hedges: Soft stop on a decisive weekly break <$320; hedge via short auto-luxury basket or long USD if EUR strength risks translation.
• Time horizon: 18–30 months through 2026 catalysts.
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Near-Term Catalyst Timetable rolling 12–18 months

• Oct 2025–1H 2026: First Ferrari BEV unveil → initial deliveries watch order intake, waitlist depth, option take-rate, margin commentary.
• Ongoing 2025–26: Buyback tranches; monitor IR posts for pace/size.
• Quarterlies/Capital Markets updates 2025–26: Mix/personalization trajectory; backlog commentary; Purosangue allocation discipline.

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📉 1. Correction in Progress – RACE down ~35% from $517 ATH; historical symmetry targets ~$336–$360 → prime accumulation zone before next leg higher.

🏁 2. Bull Target $700+ (2026) – Prior 35% pullbacks (2018/19, 2022) led to 100%+ rebounds.

🏎 3. New Model Wave – Roma Spider, 12Cilindri, Purosangue, plus hypercars sustain exclusivity and pricing.

🔋 4. EV Catalyst 2025/26 – First Ferrari BEV unveiled Oct 2025; deliveries 2026. New e-building adds ~6k unit capacity.

💰 5. Pricing Power King – Personalization nearing 20% of revenue, margins >25%, backlog sold-out through 2026.

💵 6. Buybacks & Dividends – €2 B program through 2026 + steady dividend growth = shareholder tailwind.

🌍 7. Global Demand Solid – Wealth resilience across U.S./EU/ME; limited China exposure; scarcity preserved.

🏆 8. Brand Moat Unmatched – Ferrari trades more like Hermès than an automaker — scarcity = pricing power.

⚖️ 9. Entry Plan – Scale in $360–$380, add $330–$360. Soft stop <$320. Timeframe: 18–30 months.

🔥 10. Key 2026 Catalysts – BEV launch success, Purosangue strength, personalization growth, continued buybacks.

🎯 Bottom Line: Buy the dip, own the brand. Technical correction = opportunity. Target $700+ by 2026.