Analysis techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)
Date: Oct 06, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: LRCX25
1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
November Robusta coffee surged to USD 4,528/ton (+4.65%), extending its rebound from the 4,020 – 4,305 support zone.
The price pattern is shaping a falling wedge, a potential reversal setup if the upper boundary near 4,600 – 4,650 breaks.
Medium term, the market is transitioning from a downtrend into a consolidation-recovery phase, targeting 4,926 – 5,646 once resistance breaks.
2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 4,650 – 4,926 – 5,646
Support: 4,305 – 4,020 – 3,628
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
(1) Short-term Trend:
The current rally is a corrective move after September’s decline. Holding above 4,305 shows renewed buying strength, supported by a breakout through the descending trendline.
(2) Volume:
Volume expansion during Oct 4–5 sessions indicates active technical buying and bullish participation.
(3) Wave Structure:
Price appears to be forming a wave 3 recovery leg. If the move extends, theoretical targets lie around 4,926 – 5,646.
(4) Confirmation Signals:
A daily close above 4,650 confirms wedge breakout; a break below 4,305 would risk a pullback toward 4,020.
4. Bloomberg Intelligence Strategic View
Short Term: Technical rebound supported by tight ICE inventories and speculative buying in Robusta.
Medium Term: Heavy rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands and Brazil’s Minas Gerais may improve 2025/26 output, yet Indonesia’s weak supply continues to underpin prices.
Key Risk: A stronger USD or weaker BRL could trigger producer hedging and limit upside momentum.
5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Preferred Long Setup:
Entry: 4,450 – 4,520
TP: 4,926 – 5,646
SL: 4,305
Probability: 65%
Counter-trend Short Setup:
Entry: 4,900 – 4,950
TP: 4,305 – 4,020
SL: 5,000
Probability: 40%
6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Exporters: Consider forward sales around 4,900 – 5,000 to secure short-term profits.
Roasters/importers: Hedge near 4,400 – 4,500 to mitigate upside exposure in case of a breakout above 4,926.
Date: Oct 06, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: LRCX25
1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
November Robusta coffee surged to USD 4,528/ton (+4.65%), extending its rebound from the 4,020 – 4,305 support zone.
The price pattern is shaping a falling wedge, a potential reversal setup if the upper boundary near 4,600 – 4,650 breaks.
Medium term, the market is transitioning from a downtrend into a consolidation-recovery phase, targeting 4,926 – 5,646 once resistance breaks.
2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 4,650 – 4,926 – 5,646
Support: 4,305 – 4,020 – 3,628
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
(1) Short-term Trend:
The current rally is a corrective move after September’s decline. Holding above 4,305 shows renewed buying strength, supported by a breakout through the descending trendline.
(2) Volume:
Volume expansion during Oct 4–5 sessions indicates active technical buying and bullish participation.
(3) Wave Structure:
Price appears to be forming a wave 3 recovery leg. If the move extends, theoretical targets lie around 4,926 – 5,646.
(4) Confirmation Signals:
A daily close above 4,650 confirms wedge breakout; a break below 4,305 would risk a pullback toward 4,020.
4. Bloomberg Intelligence Strategic View
Short Term: Technical rebound supported by tight ICE inventories and speculative buying in Robusta.
Medium Term: Heavy rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands and Brazil’s Minas Gerais may improve 2025/26 output, yet Indonesia’s weak supply continues to underpin prices.
Key Risk: A stronger USD or weaker BRL could trigger producer hedging and limit upside momentum.
5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Preferred Long Setup:
Entry: 4,450 – 4,520
TP: 4,926 – 5,646
SL: 4,305
Probability: 65%
Counter-trend Short Setup:
Entry: 4,900 – 4,950
TP: 4,305 – 4,020
SL: 5,000
Probability: 40%
6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Exporters: Consider forward sales around 4,900 – 5,000 to secure short-term profits.
Roasters/importers: Hedge near 4,400 – 4,500 to mitigate upside exposure in case of a breakout above 4,926.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.