TSLA: Fundamentals Are Collapsing While Valuation Stays in Orbit

Tesla is trading near multi-month highs… but the fundamentals tell a very different story.
EPS has dropped by 50%, revenue growth has almost stalled, and yet the stock still carries a Forward P/E of 164.

This combination — slowing growth and extreme valuation — looks like the definition of an institutional bubble setup.

🧮 Fundamental Context


Over the past few years, Tesla’s growth has slowed dramatically:

Revenue rose from 31B → 53B → 81B → 96B → 97B — barely any increase.

EPS climbed from 0.2 → 1.6 → 3.6 → 4.3 — and then fell by half.

Quarter-over-quarter metrics remain negative, with no visible recovery trend.

Meanwhile, the Forward P/E of 164 implies double-digit expansion ahead — which clearly isn’t happening.
The fundamentals simply do not justify this kind of valuation.
Right now, Tesla’s numbers resemble the early phase of a valuation compression cycle — where prices eventually catch up with reality.

📉 Technical Structure

Technically, Tesla has been moving in a broad sideways range, forming what looks like a long-term Wave 4 structure.
We’re currently inside the “B” leg, which could already be complete or near completion.
Once that wave ends, the next expected move is a Wave C decline.

Key levels to watch:

📍 Upper resistance zone: $400 – $550

📍 Primary cluster: around $250

📍 Support zone: $150 – $200

The chart shows clear volume concentration around $250 — once that level breaks, the next liquidity pocket sits between $150 and $200.
That’s where a potential bottoming cluster could form before the final upward leg.

⚠️ Market Outlook

While other FANG names maintain solid balance sheets and stable earnings, Tesla’s fundamentals are deteriorating sharply.
Yes, the stock may still see short-term pumps driven by sentiment or Musk’s fan base — but markets always return to fundamentals.
And those fundamentals are pointing downward.

📊 Summary

EPS and revenue both trending lower 📉

Forward P/E at 164 — completely disconnected from growth metrics

Technical range suggests potential decline toward $200–$150

Current price action likely part of a larger corrective structure

Long-term investors should exercise extreme caution ⚠️

Tesla isn’t a short-term “growth story” anymore — it’s a valuation risk story.
Until earnings stabilize and margins recover, this stock looks massively overpriced.