The latest US JOLTS Job Openings report released at 3:00 pm shows current job openings at 7.18 million, which is lower than both the forecast (7.38 million) and previous reading (7.36 million).
Interpretation
This decline suggests some cooling in the US labor market, with fewer available positions compared to market expectations.
The lower-than-forecast reading may signal that businesses are becoming more cautious about hiring due to economic uncertainty or shifting demand.
The Federal Reserve will likely view this as a sign that labor market tightness is easing, which could reduce upward wage and inflationary pressures.
Implications for Markets and Fed Policy
Softer hiring demand could support arguments for maintaining or lowering interest rates if other economic indicators also point to weakening momentum.
Financial markets may interpret it as slightly dovish, expecting less urgency for Fed tightening.
This moderation in job openings adds to recent signals of a gradual slowdown in US employment dynamics.
THE NEXT UNITED STATE DATA REPORT WILL BE BY 1;30PM
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Forecasted at 73,000 jobs added, down from the previous 104,000, indicating a slowdown in private sector job growth.
Unemployment Claims: Forecasted at 230,000 initial claims, slightly higher than the previous 229,000, suggesting steady but slightly increasing weekly layoffs.
Revised Nonfarm Productivity (q/q): Forecast proposed to rise to 2.8%, up from 2.4%, showing improved labor efficiency in the second quarter.
Revised Unit Labor Costs (q/q): Forecasted to decrease to 1.2% from the prior 1.6%, indicating a potential easing in labor cost inflation pressures.
Trade Balance: Forecasted to widen to a deficit of -$77.7 billion compared to the previous -$60.2 billion, signaling increased import demand or weaker exports.
Final Services PMI: Slightly below expectations at 55.3 vs the previous 55.4, indicating continued expansion but at a marginally slower pace.
ISM Services PMI: Forecast to rise to 50.9, up from 50.1, signaling improved service sector growth and optimism.
These economic indicators collectively suggest a mixed picture: slower job growth and rising trade deficits but firm service sector expansion and improving productivity. This data is key for assessing US economic health and will influence Federal Reserve decision-making on interest rates and policy going forward.The latest US economic data forecasts and recent figures are as follows:
ADP(Automatic Data Processing, Inc.) (ADP); Non-Farm Employment Change forecast: 73,000 (previous: 104,000)
Weekly Unemployment Claims forecast: 230,000 (previous: 229,000)
Revised Nonfarm Productivity (q/q) forecast: 2.8% (previous: 2.4%)
Revised Unit Labor Costs (q/q) forecast: 1.2% (previous: 1.6%)
Trade Balance forecast: -77.7 billion USD (previous: -60.2 billion USD)
Final Services PMI forecast: 55.3 (previous: 55.4)
ISM Services PMI forecast: 50.9 (previous: 50.1)
These data points suggest a slowdown in employment growth, slightly increasing unemployment claims, increased productivity growth, easing labor cost pressures, widening trade deficit, and modest growth in service sectors. These indicators collectively will influence USD valuation and Federal Reserve policy outlook.
WATCH OUT FOR NEXT FOMC VOTING
#US10Y #DXY #DOLLAR
Interpretation
This decline suggests some cooling in the US labor market, with fewer available positions compared to market expectations.
The lower-than-forecast reading may signal that businesses are becoming more cautious about hiring due to economic uncertainty or shifting demand.
The Federal Reserve will likely view this as a sign that labor market tightness is easing, which could reduce upward wage and inflationary pressures.
Implications for Markets and Fed Policy
Softer hiring demand could support arguments for maintaining or lowering interest rates if other economic indicators also point to weakening momentum.
Financial markets may interpret it as slightly dovish, expecting less urgency for Fed tightening.
This moderation in job openings adds to recent signals of a gradual slowdown in US employment dynamics.
THE NEXT UNITED STATE DATA REPORT WILL BE BY 1;30PM
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Forecasted at 73,000 jobs added, down from the previous 104,000, indicating a slowdown in private sector job growth.
Unemployment Claims: Forecasted at 230,000 initial claims, slightly higher than the previous 229,000, suggesting steady but slightly increasing weekly layoffs.
Revised Nonfarm Productivity (q/q): Forecast proposed to rise to 2.8%, up from 2.4%, showing improved labor efficiency in the second quarter.
Revised Unit Labor Costs (q/q): Forecasted to decrease to 1.2% from the prior 1.6%, indicating a potential easing in labor cost inflation pressures.
Trade Balance: Forecasted to widen to a deficit of -$77.7 billion compared to the previous -$60.2 billion, signaling increased import demand or weaker exports.
Final Services PMI: Slightly below expectations at 55.3 vs the previous 55.4, indicating continued expansion but at a marginally slower pace.
ISM Services PMI: Forecast to rise to 50.9, up from 50.1, signaling improved service sector growth and optimism.
These economic indicators collectively suggest a mixed picture: slower job growth and rising trade deficits but firm service sector expansion and improving productivity. This data is key for assessing US economic health and will influence Federal Reserve decision-making on interest rates and policy going forward.The latest US economic data forecasts and recent figures are as follows:
ADP(Automatic Data Processing, Inc.) (ADP); Non-Farm Employment Change forecast: 73,000 (previous: 104,000)
Weekly Unemployment Claims forecast: 230,000 (previous: 229,000)
Revised Nonfarm Productivity (q/q) forecast: 2.8% (previous: 2.4%)
Revised Unit Labor Costs (q/q) forecast: 1.2% (previous: 1.6%)
Trade Balance forecast: -77.7 billion USD (previous: -60.2 billion USD)
Final Services PMI forecast: 55.3 (previous: 55.4)
ISM Services PMI forecast: 50.9 (previous: 50.1)
These data points suggest a slowdown in employment growth, slightly increasing unemployment claims, increased productivity growth, easing labor cost pressures, widening trade deficit, and modest growth in service sectors. These indicators collectively will influence USD valuation and Federal Reserve policy outlook.
WATCH OUT FOR NEXT FOMC VOTING
#US10Y #DXY #DOLLAR
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.