EverythingForex

FULL ANALYSIS: USDJPY: Scenario #1 Contracting Triangle Done

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
This pair has been in a weeks long sideways consolidation and may have just completed a contracting triangle pattern. I've posted about this triangle pattern a week ago. This is the chart I posted:

Prices didn't go EXACTLY as I thought it would at the time but eventually did complete this triangle last Friday ending with an "overthrow" leg E as expected. So now what next? Will it now start to descend in a wave (v)? Is wave (iv) done? Well, no one can know the answer to that for sure but taking a guess by looking at past price action, I would guess that we are in for more consolidation before we actually get another impulse wave. What I see now is that the pair is forming the right shoulder of a large H&S pattern. Given the length and time of the left shoulder, this right shoulder may extend a little longer. If it does, then this wave (iv) will be unfolding in a more complex fashion probably in some form of a double combo WXY pattern with this triangle as the W leg. If so, then the next leg should be a 3-wave X leg. We'll just need to watch and see.

This triangle IS NOT the same triangle that I had posted about which netted +172 pips. That triangle was a smaller triangle within this larger triangle. Here is that chart so you may compare:

THE PATTERNS
In the main chart above, I am showing 2 POTENTIAL patterns. One is bullish butterfly and the other is a bullish crab. Keep in mind that the way I show it on the chart in no way reflects any sort of time projection. These patterns will remain valid as long as prices do not invalidate them during any further consolidation.

On a larger DAILY TF, I had posted about a POTENTIAL Bullish crab pattern more than a month ago (see DAILY chart below). Prices have been descending along this crab's CD leg for more than a month now. IF and when this crab gets filled, it may mark the end of the initial wave (A) down of the much larger ABC correction. Wave (B) may see prices return all the way near to the highs to retest them. But we'll concern ourselves about that later.

WEEKLY CHART
Here is the weekly chart I posted over a month ago.....
Here it is now with the updated price action....

DAILY CHART - Possible H&S Pattern Forming
Here is the DAILY chart from a month ago:
Here it is now with updated price action:

CONCLUSION AND MY TRADE PLAN
I already am SHORT from the very top entering on that completed bearish cypher on the DAILY chart. as well as having accumulated more SHORT positions on the way down. I am looking to add some more SHORT positions looking for good opportunities to do so. Is this one of them? I think must wait a little longer to be sure. The completion of this triangle MAY start the wave (v0 down or it may not. In any case, selling now upon this triangle completion might be selling at the high of this consolidation. But IF this sideways consolidation continues, that may not be the case.There is the possibility that if this consolidation does continue that prices may head higher. So must keep that in mind if selling. Also must be wary that this week is the NFP week so prices will be volatile and unpredictable. Therefore, I am remaining neutral in this pair for now.

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