OIL Set for another bounce - 65 Target in Play

Sep 30

📊 NFX USOIL Chart Update

Fresh setup spotted:

• Price tapped into demand zone and bounced cleanly.
  
• Bullish RSI divergence confirmed → momentum shift to the upside.
  
• Eyeing the supply zone above as the next key test.
  

🎯 Bias:
As long as demand holds, I’m favoring longs into supply.
Break below demand = setup invalidated.

Stay disciplined - this is a textbook demand-to-supply play.

Oct 3

Trade active

Thesis: Just entered a long on oil from the $61.00 May ’25 Support Zone. Despite the recent breakdown below the Aug–Sept demand zone, price shows a clear rejection off the May lows. Structurally, this looks like a bear trap-momentum is shifting, and macro conditions favor a bullish reversal.

🔍 Setup Breakdown

• Support Zone Entry: $61.00 – May ’25 lows held firm, rejecting downside pressure.
  
• Demand Zone Fakeout: Breakdown below Aug–Sept demand zone likely short-lived.
  
• RSI Divergence: Bullish divergence forming on H4 - RSI troughs rising while price retests support.
  
• Volume Confirmation: Accumulation volume building near support zone.
  
• Projected Path: Targeting 66–68 supply zone, with potential extension to 72–74.
  

🎯 Trade Parameters

• Entry: $61.00
  
• Stop: Below 60.00 (invalidates reversal thesis)
  
• Target 1: 65.00–66.00 supply zone
  
• Target 2: 69.00–70.00 extended resistance
  

🧠 Macro Overlay

• Geopolitical Risk: Shutdown tensions + Russian Sanctions + Middle East volatility = potential supply disruptions.
  
• Credit Spreads Widening: Risk-off tone may favor commodities as hedges.
  
• Fed Easing Bias: Rate cuts support energy demand outlook.
  

⚠️ TL;DR
Long oil from $61.00 support. Bear trap below Aug–Sept demand zone. Macro tailwinds + bullish structure = asymmetric upside. Targets: 65–66, then 69–70.

Oct 7

Note

Breakaway gap - indicating strong bullish momentum


Now awaiting a breakout above 62 to confirm bullish continuation. - i'm expecting this to be a strong breakout given the current accumulation phase per volume profile

Oct 7

Note

Price broke through resistance - Looks like the rally about to begin 🤞🏽

Oct 10

Trade closed manually

Setup Invalidated