WTI: Possible reversal after false breakout of 60.128

Weekly range structure may define oil’s direction for the coming months — buyers defend key support, while targets above 66.769 remain in focus.

Hi traders and investors!

This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) concept.

On the weekly timeframe, a sideways range has been in place since April 2023, followed by a transitional phase.

Sellers managed to push the price below the lower boundary of this range — the first breakout occurred in March 2025.
After that, buyers brought the price back inside the range and reached the 50% level of the trading zone, from where sellers resumed control and once again pushed the price below the lower boundary at 63.668.

What’s interesting here is that earlier there was a buyer’s move returning the price into the range, with its base around 60.128.
We now see a seller candle attacking this level on high volume, followed by another seller candle with even higher volume, after which the price returned above 60.128.

This behavior may signal a false breakout (manipulation) of that level.

If this interpretation holds, the next potential upside targets are:

• 66.769 — first target,
  
• 71.328 — second target,
  
• 78.436 — third target,
  
• followed by 87.895 and possibly 95.501.
  

Key points to watch:

• whether buyers defend the 60.128 level if the price pulls back,
  
• and whether they manage to break through the range boundary at 63.668, and then 66.769
  

.

If buyers succeed in holding above these two levels, the buyer’s vector is likely to continue developing toward the mentioned upside targets.

Wishing you profitable trades!