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1-VIX

VIX Index – Elliott Wave Analysis: Diagonal C CompletionThe VIX index is finalizing an A-B-C corrective structure, with the C-leg forming as a diagonal. Price action suggests this structure is close to completion. Once the diagonal ends, the probability of a sharp upside move in volatility becomes highly likely. Why does this matter? A rising VIX reflects fear and risk aversion in the market. Historically, VIX moves inversely with equities – higher volatility often coincides with S&P 500 weakness. When VIX breaks out, it signals hedging demand and uncertainty, pushing option premiums higher and increasing market stress. 📌 Trading view: A confirmed breakout from the diagonal would mark the start of a new impulsive leg higher in volatility. This could align with risk-off flows in equities and broader corrections across risk assets. Patience and confirmation remain key — once VIX turns, it usually accelerates quickly, not quietly.
TVC:VIX
by CakirInsights
VIX set-up....interesting week aheadTo the untrained eye, you see VIX go up and down, just like any other time. Taking a big step back, you'll know that VIX has been super complacent (very strange looking back 30 years) for about 6 months. Over the last few days, we see SMA9 crossing UP SMA50! Why does this matter? Because when VIX spikes, it really spikes! Next week we have the gov shutdown and a lot of funky things going on with Russia / NATO that can spark something big, hopefully not! Many other news could spike it, but we've seen a weakness in the general market and potentially a Volmageddon 2.0 in the making. Put your alerts on and nice upside with $UVIX!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
$VIX We only just started! Volmageddon 2.0Zoom out on the VIX and you'll find that there is A LOT more runway. Study the VIX for the last 30 years and you'll find that it bottoms out and explodes. We are not at a turning point in the markets with ultra high "hot air balloons" that will come down with a correction that is long overdue. The VIX hasn't been this low in a very long time, so you want to keep the proxy CBOE:UVIX in your radar. Happy trading! Always look to make lemonade out of lemons :)
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
Volmageddon 2.0 in the making.....must watch!I have been saying this for months! Keep an eye on the VIX, always! Yes, it's been down for 5-6 months in a very unnatural way, but things are about to take a turn and potentially in a big way. Ultra-high valuations, crap unemployment, defaults through the roof, PE/CAPE ratios at historic levels, and highest concentration / weight in the stock market. 10 tech companies buying from each other like very good friends with 100% capex that hasn't been spent = 40% of S&P, seriously, WTF! In any case, it's not rosy, and we are overdue a massive spike in the VIX. Use the proxy ETF CBOE:UVIX and add alerts. Best of luck!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
BVOL (Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index) Weekly TF 2025 Summary: BVOL (Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index) remains compressed near historic lows. This analysis explores the potential for a volatility expansion cycle, key Fibonacci retracement levels, and how shifts in volatility may precede directional moves in BTC and the broader crypto market. Chart Context: Timeframe: Weekly (1W) Current BVOL: ~13.23 Historical Support Zone: ~11.76–15 (consolidation base since 2022) Resistance Area: ~25–35 (marked breakout threshold) Fibonacci Retracement (from peak ~192.79): 23.6% = 56.17 → 2nd TP 38.2% = 89.01 → 3rd TP 48.6% = 99.74 → Intermediate fib zone 61.8% = 123.63 → Cycle expansion cap (potential BTC top region) 100% = 192.79 → All-time spike (rare volatility events) Key Technical Observations: Consolidation Floor: Since mid-2022, BVOL has hovered near extreme lows often a prelude to sharp directional moves. Support-turned-Resistance: Past volatility surges often topped near fib clusters (23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%). These will likely act as TP zones during volatility spikes. Expected Path: Base breakout above 25 → TP1 = 35 Acceleration phase → TP2 = 56–60 High volatility climax → TP3 = 85–89 Volatility Trend Commentary: Current Phase: Low volatility compression, common in accumulation phases. Volatility Expansion Signal: A break above the 25–35 band may signal the start of a high-volatility impulse (typically aligned with large BTC directional moves). Dotted Paths on the chart reflect the two key expansion possibilities: Straight rally up to TP3 (85) Mid-stage pullback post-TP2 (bear trap scenario) Macro Correlation: BVOL vs BTCUSD: Historically, BVOL lows precede strong BTC trends — both bull and bear cycles. BVOL vs BTC.D: BVOL surges often shift dominance; either BTC leads during volatility or altcoins rotate post-BTC move. BVOL vs TOTAL / TOTAL2 / TOTAL3: Volatility compression in BVOL is directly tied to range-bound TOTAL3. Total: Total2: Total3: BVOL expansion is often mirrored by strong TOTAL2 & TOTAL rallies. Confluence seen between BVOL TP zones and critical fib levels in TOTAL charts. Bias & Strategy Implication: Volatility Expansion Expected: Current structure is unsustainable; expansion is highly probable in coming weeks/months. Watch BTC Price Action: If BTC breaks key levels while BVOL rises → Confirmed trend. Portfolio Strategy: Prepare for volatility-driven liquidation zones. Use BVOL to gauge position sizing and risk. Notes & Disclaimers: This analysis is part of the BitonGroup Macro Series. BVOL is not a directional indicator but a volatility proxy. use in combination with price and dominance metrics. Always combine volatility forecasts with proper stop-loss and leverage management.
BITMEX:BVOLLong
by BitonGroup
What will happen to VIX after another crappy jobs report today?While there is no crystal ball, the jobs market is beyond horrible and many precursors to a massive pullback on coming together; credit defaults, unemployment (after several revisions, each one worse than the last one), China pulling back on US based AI tech (what AI bubble?), and valuations that peak dot.com bubble. The VIX has been unnaturally low, hedge funds are shorting it!, and let's not forget volmaggedon! Could spike any second and it likely will before people get too complacent. This is a recipe for v-maggedon 2.0. Bullish on the economy, but not blind to facts and historical standards when things look very wonky. Best of luck out there! Everyone is a genius when the market is up :)
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
VIX looking real sweet now before tomorrow's Job numbersIf you're looking for a nice upside before things get wonky, then look at the $VIX! It's starting to tick-up from all the complacency - folks buying at all time high with insane valuations just not supported historically. The jobs numbers is expected to look pretty grim tomorrow, and with that the market can correct itself. The proxy for TVC:VIX is $UVIX. If you need help, just check the ultrabuy / short signals and you should be fine! Best of luck and stay active in the market otherwise you could be a bag holder for a while, and that's not fun!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
5
High Beta Bear | HIBS | Long at $7.54 (Primarily September)Historically, September is one of the worst performing months in the stock market. A hedge against my bets for this month is to buy shares of Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X AMEX:HIBS as a volatility play. The index provider selects 100 securities from the S&P 500 Index that have exhibited the highest sensitivity to market movements, or “beta,” over the past 12 months based on the securities’ daily price changes. This isn't "buy and hold" play, whatsoever - you'll lose. It's a short duration hedge using seasonality odds that *may* be in my favor. Targets: $8.50 (+12.7%) $9.50 (+26.0%) $10.50 (+39.3%, if a market scare...)
AMEX:HIBSLong
by WorthlessViews
VIX looking real sweet now (use UVIX as proxy)For those tracking macros and true diversification, this is a potential nice play with a massive upside. Look at last year around July 17th. We are nearing this. Historically, the VIX bottoms out around 17-18 and it's sitting at 15. It doesn't stay in this region for too long. Most macros are looking extremely brittle and cracks are forming everywhere. I'd argue that the macros look worse now than in early 20202. Track this, put alerts on, use whatever technical you prefer, but this will spike and it's a massive upside. Some use UVIX as the proxy for the VIX :) Best of luck and always take calculated risks. If not, just go to your trusty bank and get 0.02% return annually!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
Soon she will grow like a tree....UVIX (VIX proxy)Don't underestimate the VIX spike (UVIX is highly correlated), which has been sitting at a ONE YEAR low, which is extremely rare - only in times when a massive correction is about to happen! Frame this post bc historically VIX doesn't sit around 15 for too long (over 30 years). A major jump is unraveling and AI bubble will burst. Japan's long term interest rates are exploding and the Fed's short term rate cut cannot stop it since it's based on market demand / supply.
CBOE:UVIXLong
by antonini2002
2
S&P 500 Shows Early Signs of Momentum Loss Ahead of Jackson HoleThe S&P 500 has begun to show signs of momentum loss ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting. The number of member stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has not increased, even as the index made new highs. RSI is showing a negative divergence, and the index has slipped below its short-term yellow trendline. In addition, crypto markets sold off early Monday, and the VIX opened the week with a gap higher, moving above its short-term downtrend. These are still only early signals and not yet concrete confirmation, but traders should be cautious of potential profit-taking ahead of Jackson Hole, where Powell may push back against expectations for rapid rate cuts.
SP:SPXShort
by ftdsystem
VIX looking good....While some are celebrating small wins the bigger picture is that the economy is NOT doing well and there will likely be a liquidity crisis at some point. The smartest investors are pilling up cash while retailers are the exit liquidity. From a TA perspective, historically the VIX is below its mean average and we're seeing it crossing 50SMA then most likely 200SMA lines. The VIX ALWAYS spikes and it will cross 20 very soon! Just look at the last week that's 2-3 good years in the S&P in a few hours. DM me for details on how to use ETFs.
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
VIX: From “Calm Tension” to a ReboundWhy does a small uptick matter today… if we’ve already seen 60+ readings four times in the past 17 years? The first week of August 2025 brought back a familiar market force: volatility. The VIX, which tracks expected fluctuations in the S&P 500, jumped 21% in just a few days, rising from 17.4 to 20.37, with an intraday high of 21.9 on August 1. At first glance, the move may seem minor. But it broke through key long-term moving averages (SMA 50 and 200) and exited its recent comfort zone (14–19 pts). That alone is enough to make portfolio managers and traders pay attention again. 🔙 Historical context: when the VIX truly spiked 📅 Date 🔺 VIX intraday 🧨 Trigger Oct 1, 2008 96.40 Subprime mortgage crisis, Lehman collapse, AIG bailout Mar 2, 2020 85.47 COVID-19 global spread, border shutdowns Aug 5, 2024 65.73 Surprise Fed rate hike + overheated jobs data Apr 7, 2025 60.13 Panic over new U.S. tariffs on global partners Compared to those moments, today's VIX levels look “mild.” But the technical and macroeconomic signals suggest that volatility may be establishing a new baseline. 1. 📊 Breakdown: First week of August 2025 Weekly increase: from 17.4 → 20.37 (+21%). Technical breakout: monthly close above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA 19.25 and 19.45). MACD on the monthly chart has flipped positive for the first time since March 2023. Key drivers: 🏛️ The Fed left interest rates unchanged on July 30, but two dissenting votes favored a rate cut. 👷‍♂️ Softening jobs data: July NFP came in at only +73,000 jobs (vs. +110,000 expected). 🧾 New U.S. tariffs, announced on August 1, reignited inflation concerns. 2. ⚖️ Comparing August 2025 to the August 2024 storm Factor August 2024 August 2025 (Week 1) 🔺 VIX peak 65.73 21.9 🏛️ Fed stance Surprise 25 bp rate hike Rates unchanged, internal division 👷 Labor market Hot, wage pressures Cooling down 📉 S&P 500 reaction −12% in 3 weeks Approx. −3% decline underway 💧 Market liquidity Very low (pre-market) Normal Conclusion: 2024 was a systemic shock. 2025 is more of a volatility warning sign—but one that matters for risk management. 3. 📍 Technical signals to monitor The monthly MACD just turned positive, which historically precedes sustained volatility spikes. Key short-term range: 18–22 pts. A sustained close above 22 could trigger heavy selling in high-beta stocks. Options expiration (OPEX, Aug 16) may amplify moves via gamma flows. 4. 🔮 What could move the VIX next? 📅 Date 📌 Event ⚠️ Volatility Risk Aug 14 Core CPI (July) Reading above 0.3% m/m could reignite hawkish Fed bets Aug 22–23 Jackson Hole Symposium Powell’s speech could reset the policy outlook End of Aug Q2 GDP revision Confirm whether slowdown = soft landing or stagflation 📌 Note: The VIX cannot be traded directly. Exposure is typically obtained through futures, options, or ETNs—each with specific risks like contango, low liquidity, and roll decay. 📌 Final thoughts The VIX doesn’t need to hit 60 to send a message. The fact that it’s breaking above long-term averages, reacting sharply to macro data, and threatening key levels is enough to suggest that the era of ultra-low volatility may be ending. History shows us that major VIX spikes come fast and unannounced. If you remember 2008, 2020, or even April 2025—you know that preparation beats prediction.
TVC:VIX
by SHGTrading
I told you so....VIX is the golden goose! All this fake pump in the market was just not sustainable. It is very clear that there are holes and the money printing can't last forever. The S&P fake pumps, and artificial tariffs (which Americans pay 90%) are created out of thin air. The reality is that defaults are very high across the board for most debt classes, VIX is at a YEAR LOW (doesn't happen to often, signaling massive complacency), and now the song will end and all the retailers will be holding the bag! Learn how to trade the VIX! DM me for details. Always do your own due diligence, but historically this is a good time to get out :) You need to see and take action when you see red flags....
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
2