$BTC BEARISH CROSS on the 20 / 200 DMA We had a similar setup at the end of September of 2021 where CRYPTOCAP:BTC then rallied a week later ~75% over the next few weeks.
However, every other time this bearish cross occurred in the past, ₿itcoin has spent at least a couple months trying to reclaim the 200DMA.
Currently PA has closed the Day below the 200DMA.
Bulls CANNOT afford a Weekly close below $106k, which is well outside the DANGER ZONE and .382 Fib
GOOD NEWS: An Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern has formed.
Bulls need some big volume days to come reverse the localized downtrend ASAP.
If not, the 50WMA will be tested ~$103k.
If that happens, Bulls must not show any weakness nor allow Weekly Closes below it.
20dma
$BTC Bearish Engulfing Candle AlertGOOD NEWS:
-CME Gap was completely filled.
-PA is still above the 20DMA.
BAD NEWS:
-Very concerning Bearish Engulfing candle on the Daily Close.
-Volume confirms the change in trend.
MY TAKE: I wouldn't be surprised to see the market rally into a low liquidity weekend and dump hard on Monday.
Timing the market. IWMWhat we know? Oil is likely bullish in 2nd Half (24'). BTC leads the small caps. TNX usually works as a head wind (and has took a pause). Rate cuts are very bullish for small caps and financials benefit in this environment?
technically; the 20dma works as a driver. 50dma and 200dma just gives you context. You can add MACD to confirm things.
Im speculating that small caps breaks out in mid April.
U can fact check using IWM/SPX.
High & Tight is a bears NuanceHigh & tight pennant off that 20dma, which has been significant the whole run up. Options are fairly priced in the 17th percentile of its 52wk range. Shares are trading above the 2012 high and double the March 2020 low. Large call open interest at the 29-strike expired Friday giving room to run. Short-interest is also at a 3-year high and looks ready to roll over. We're long the Oct 28c's from Friday afternoon.







