Yesterday, we got a monthly confirmation candle for the 80-month MA breakdown.
On average the first wave lower is about -17.4% on previous breakdowns
The last time the dollar bull market ended, gold soared +500%
Breaking down through support, this is what kept me out of trading PFE to the long-side even though it looked bullish. With the elections coming up and democrats leading the polls, I'd stay away from pharma and insurers. Lean towards medical devices if you need healthcare exposure.
Keep an eye on this one -- we like it long right here. Multi-year breakout above $40 last month now holding as support. Deep pullback to the 50dma with a large open interest put level at the 43-strike to act as support as well. Shorts are in covering mode down over -18.03% over the past 2-weeks. Options are moderately priced in the 19th percentile as well.
High & tight pennant off that 20dma, which has been significant the whole run up. Options are fairly priced in the 17th percentile of its 52wk range. Shares are trading above the 2012 high and double the March 2020 low. Large call open interest at the 29-strike expired Friday giving room to run. Short-interest is also at a 3-year high and looks ready to roll over....
We've been in this and just doubled up today. First initiation was back on July 13th but the Oct 19's. This morning we also bought the Oct 21's looking for an additional aggressive move to the upside with it flagging again. Options are stupid cheap.
$42 have been a major support zone over the years -- this level is huge and will determine where it trades over the coming months. Daily bollinger bands are extremely tight too, so a big move is likely.
Difficult spot for the SPY at the 61.8 fib and possible tactical short. The 80-day MA was the point of failure multiple times in the 2018 sell-off and now failed once in the current sell-off. We're also trading into upside supply, but if going short, keep a tight stop here as a break above will likely rip to 300.
• Falling wedge
• Bouncing at the 30dma, which has been significant in previous bull runs
• Been finding support at the +20% YOY level
• Put build as evidenced by the 50-day BTO P/C ratio at 1.03, in the 98th percentile
• Large open interest at the 65-strike call level expires this week
• Options are cheap – Equity VIX %Range in the 12th percentile