Potential H&S Pattern forming AUDJPYPotential H&S Pattern forming AUDJPY
TVC:AXY - AUD may be over priced for a rate hike
TVC:JXY - YEN may accelerate as DXY rises
TVC:DXY - USD may continue to rise
ShortAudjpyshort
Short
Risk barometer is going down.Monthly high is taken out meaning the buyside liquidity is out, now the pair is retesting the monthly high and correcting some imbalances and drop.
Short
AUD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup 📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:AUDJPY On the 15M chart, AUD/JPY is exhibiting a clear bearish rejection from the overhead Resistance Zone at 111.60 – 111.70. After failing to sustain higher levels, the price action has shifted into a corrective phase, characterized by a series of lower highs in the short term.
The pair is currently approaching a critical horizontal Support Zone between 111.11 – 111.16. While the previous upward momentum has stalled, this support level represents the primary floor that bears must break to confirm a trend reversal.
Short-term bias: Bearish while below 111.60.
Key Objective: A retest of the 111.11 support floor.
🎯 Trade Setup (Sell-the-Rallies)
Entry Zone: 111.60 – 111.65 (Targeting entries near the established resistance zone).
Stop Loss: 111.70 (Placed above the recent swing high).
Take Profit: 111.16 (Primary horizontal support).
Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:4.5
📌 Invalidation:A decisive 15M candle close above 111.70 would invalidate this bearish outlook, suggesting that buyers have regained control for a move toward 112.00.
🌐 Macro Background
RBA Stance: Governor Michele Bullock has signalled that a rate hike in March remains on the table if inflation expectations become unanchored. Markets are currently pricing in a 30% chance of a hike this month.
Geopolitical Risk: Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, including the recent destruction of Iranian command posts by US forces, continues to drive safe-haven demand into the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Conflict Escalation: The joint Israeli-US offensive has heightened fears of a prolonged regional war, which typically acts as a significant headwind for the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD).
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: 111.60 – 111.70.
Support Zone: 111.11– 111.16.
📌 Trade Summary
The setup has shifted from a trend-following channel to a range-fading strategy as the 111.65 resistance proves difficult to breach. Geopolitical tensions favour JPY strength, providing fundamental backing for a move lower.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.
Short
AUDJPY at Exhaustion Highs Risk Barometer Turning at 111.47AUDJPY has pushed into a clean liquidity shelf at 111.47 and stalled almost on cue. After a strong impulsive leg higher, momentum is now compressing right beneath prior highs, and short-term structure is starting to roll over. This is the kind of zone where trends either accelerate or reverse sharply — and given the macro backdrop, I’m leaning toward a corrective downside phase rather than continuation.
This pair is not just another cross. It’s one of the clearest real-time gauges of global risk appetite. When AUDJPY hesitates at highs, I pay attention.
Current Bias: Bearish (Corrective Pullback Likely)
Price has rejected from the 111.47 high and is now forming lower intraday highs beneath resistance. Momentum has shifted from expansion to compression. Unless we see a decisive break and hold above 111.50, the structure favors a retracement toward deeper support.
The impulsive leg higher looks extended, and exhaustion signals are building.
Key Fundamental Drivers
1. Japan Yield Normalization
Japanese yields have been gradually rising, and normalization expectations continue to build. That reduces the attractiveness of carry trades like AUDJPY.
2. Fragile China Growth Outlook
AUD remains highly exposed to China demand and global growth sentiment. PMIs remain uneven and lack strong acceleration.
3. Risk Sentiment Plateau
Equities have stabilized rather than accelerated. Without a fresh risk-on catalyst, high-beta crosses like AUDJPY struggle to sustain upside momentum.
Macro Context
Interest Rate Expectations:
The Fed remains cautious due to sticky inflation. Rate cuts are not aggressively priced. Meanwhile, Japan’s yield curve dynamics are shifting upward gradually.
Economic Growth Trends:
US growth remains resilient. China growth remains fragile. Australia’s outlook is tied to global commodity demand rather than domestic outperformance.
Commodity Flows:
Iron ore and industrial demand flows matter more for AUD than oil does. There is no strong commodity impulse currently driving aggressive AUD upside.
Geopolitical Themes:
Any geopolitical flare-up strengthens JPY via safe-haven demand. Risk markets are stable but not euphoric.
Net macro tone: Moderately risk-sensitive, not strongly risk-on.
Primary Risk to the Trend
A renewed equity breakout could quickly invalidate the bearish view. If global indices push higher and volatility compresses further, AUDJPY could retest and break above 111.47.
Additionally, a dovish shift from the Bank of Japan would weaken JPY and support continuation higher.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
US Core PCE
Japan policy communication
China PMI releases
These will directly impact risk appetite and yield spreads.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
AUDJPY is a leader in global risk sentiment among FX pairs.
When it turns lower, equities often follow.
When it breaks out, it confirms risk acceleration.
It does not follow USD directly — it responds to global growth and volatility flows.
If AUDJPY breaks down cleanly, NZDJPY and equity indices often echo the move.
Key Levels
Support Levels:
109.80 (near-term structure support)
108.90 (mid-structure demand)
107.90 (major support zone and projected target)
Resistance Levels:
110.90 (minor intraday cap)
111.47 (major liquidity high)
Stop Loss (SL):
Above 111.70 (clean breakout and hold invalidates bearish structure)
Take Profit (TP):
Primary: 107.90
Extended: 106.80 if downside momentum accelerates
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
Bias is bearish while price remains below the 111.47 high. The structure shows rejection at a clear liquidity zone, and the macro backdrop does not strongly support sustained risk expansion. Rising Japan yields and fragile China growth keep AUDJPY vulnerable to pullbacks. Stop above 111.70 protects against a breakout continuation. Primary target sits at 107.90, with potential extension lower if risk sentiment deteriorates. The key watchpoints are US inflation data and Japan policy signals. If this pair rolls over decisively, it likely leads broader risk markets lower.
Short
AUDJPY Pullback Zone Carry Trade Reset Upside Structure IntactAUDJPY has pulled back from the highs into a clearly defined demand band after a rejection near the top resistance zone. The broader structure still leans upward, but the pair is now sitting at a decision point where carry support and risk sentiment have to step back in. From a macro angle, this is less about Australia alone and more about global risk appetite and yield spreads — and right now, price is testing whether that foundation is still solid.
Current Bias
Short-term bullish rebound attempt from support, medium-term bullish while higher-low structure holds.
Price is correcting inside an overall rising structure rather than breaking trend — so bias favors recovery moves as long as support holds.
Key Fundamental Drivers
AUD side:
Sensitive to global growth expectations and China-linked demand signals
Correlates with commodity sentiment and equity risk tone
RBA policy still relatively firm compared to ultra-loose Japan stance
JPY side:
Still structurally low yield despite gradual normalization signals
Strength mainly comes from risk-off flows and falling global yields
Acts as a funding currency in carry trades like AUDJPY
Core driver remains yield spread + risk sentiment, not domestic data alone.
Macro Context
Interest rate expectations still show a wide gap between Australia and Japan. Even if the RBA is no longer aggressively tightening, Australian yields remain far above Japanese yields, which keeps the carry framework alive.
Global growth signals are mixed but not collapsing. When equity indices stabilize and volatility compresses, AUDJPY typically benefits.
Commodity flows matter here more than in many FX pairs. Firm metals and energy pricing tend to support AUD sentiment indirectly.
Geopolitical themes and policy uncertainty continue to inject volatility — and that mostly expresses itself through JPY strength spikes, not steady trends.
Primary Risk to the Trend
Main downside risk is a renewed risk-off wave:
equity selloff
bond yield drop
geopolitical shock
That combination strengthens JPY quickly and pressures AUDJPY regardless of Australian data.
A secondary risk is a sharp shift in Bank of Japan policy tone that markets interpret as faster tightening.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
Watch:
BoJ communication and yield developments
RBA guidance and Australian inflation data
US inflation and rate expectations, because they steer global yields and risk appetite
US yield moves often ripple directly into yen crosses.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
AUDJPY is a risk-sensitive leader among yen crosses.
It often:
moves early with shifts in equity sentiment
leads NZDJPY and sometimes CADJPY in risk-on phases
follows US yields and stock index direction
If AUDJPY rebounds cleanly, it tends to confirm broader carry recovery. If it fails at support, it warns that risk appetite is weakening again.
Key Levels
Support Levels:
108.00–107.85 demand zone
107.00 secondary structure support
Resistance Levels:
109.50 near-term supply
110.70–110.80 major high resistance zone
Stop Loss (SL):
Below 107.80 support structure
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 109.50
TP2: 110.70
TP3: Extension toward fresh highs if carry momentum returns
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
Bias favors a bullish rebound from the support band as long as the higher-low structure holds. The trade is fundamentally supported by the Australia–Japan yield gap and carry dynamics, with global risk sentiment acting as the trigger variable. The biggest risk is a fresh risk-off move or falling global yields that strengthen JPY broadly. BoJ tone, RBA signals, and US yield data are the key catalysts to watch. AUDJPY behaves like a leader in risk-on yen crosses, so its reaction here can help confirm whether carry trades are stabilizing or rolling over again.
Long
Audjpy sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
Short
AUDJPY 1H - Sell the retrace1) 📌 Chart & context
AUDJPY looks like it completed a 5-wave decline from ~110.83 down to ~107.70 (wave V). After a 5-wave move, I usually expect a 3-wave corrective bounce (ABC) before the next bearish leg.
2) 🌀 What phase are we in?
Current price action looks like an ongoing upward correction. I’m not interested in shorting the low, I want the bounce to finish, then look for shorts.
3) 📐 Correction zones I’m watching (Fib confluence)
From the decline, key retracement levels line up as a clean “sell zone”:
• Primary zone: 108.89 (price already touched it - but I suggest that correction is going)
• Extended zone (if correction stretches): 109.26 – 109.64 (50% → 61.8%)
4) ✅ Trading plan
Wait finished correction, and consider short positions.
5) 🎯 Targets
• Target 1: 106.15
• Target 2: 104.22
6) ❌ Invalidation / stop logic
• Practical approach: place the stop above the correction high (whichever zone tops out).
• If price breaks and holds above the extended zone, the bearish continuation idea becomes weaker.
✅ Trade safe. ✅
Short
audjpy sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
Short
AUDJPY is Holding After Channel BreakoutHello Traders
In This Chart AUDJPY HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today AUDJPY analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (AUDJPY market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on AUDJPY Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
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TheGrove | AUDJPY BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisAUDJPY is moving in an UP trend channel.
The chart broke through the dynamic Resistance line, which now acts as support.
We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity AUDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
Long
AUDJPY bearish setup on 1hrAUDJPY bearish setup on 1hr
- Bearish divergence
- Rising wedge broken
- Alligator opening mouth downwards
- broke the last HL
Targeting 1:3RR
Short
AUDJPY - Short Trade Plan
AUDJPY - Short
1. Bearish Divergence
2. Sentiment - Short (90%)
3. RSI > 70 (Overbought)
The plan is to short the pair if the price
falls below the 104.3 mark. A simple
Risk to Reward of 1:1 trade is fine.
Short
AUDJPY Bearish Breakout!
HI,Traders !
#AUDJPY made a bearish
Breakout and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are
Bearish biased and we
Will be expecting a further
Bearish move down !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
Short
AUDJPY: Bearish Drop to 88?FX:AUDJPY is eyeing a bearish reversal on the daily chart , with price approaching a key resistance zone near cumulative sell liquidation, converging with a potential entry area that could trigger downside momentum if sellers defend against further upside. This setup suggests a pullback opportunity amid the recent rally, targeting lower support levels with favorable risk-reward.🔥
Entry between 104.5–106.5 for a short position. Targets at 95 (first), 88 (second). Set a stop loss at a close above 109.5 , yielding a risk-reward ratio more than 1:3 overall. Monitor for confirmation via a bearish candle close below entry with rising volume, leveraging the pair's volatility near highs.🌟
Fundamentally , AUDJPY is strengthening around 101-102 in November 2025, supported by RBA's rate pause and probing yearly highs amid bullish trends, though recovery attempts from 99.00 face headwinds from resilient labor markets and inflation concerns. Forecasts indicate continued upside potential to 102.00+ if momentum builds, but risks of correction persist due to diverging central bank policies and global risk sentiment. 💡
📝 Trade Setup
🎯 Entry (Short):
104.5 – 106.5
🎯 Targets:
• 95.00 (first)
• 88.00 (second)
❌ Stop Loss:
• Daily close above 109.5
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward:
• More than 1:3 overall
👇 Share your thoughts below! 👇
Short
AUD /JPY Best Place For Sell Cleared After This Massive Move !Here is my opinion on 4H T.F On AUD /JPY Chart , the price Very Near to touch a very strong res area that forced the price to respect it and go down for more than 500 pips for 1 time , and if we checked the chart we will see that the price is going up very hard without any correction so we need a very strong res area to force the price to go down at least for 300 pips so i choose this area cuz it`s the highest place the price touch it and it respect it very much and go down very hard as it go up very hard , so i`m waiting the price at this area to sell it and targeting from 100 to 200 pips . if we have a daily closure above my res area this idea will not be valid anymore .
Entry Reasons :
1- Very Strong Daily & Weekly Res Area .
2- Perfect Bearish Price Action Last Time .
3- Bigger Time Frames Confirmed .
Short
Sell Off (Retracement)- AUDJPYThe macro bias of AUDJPY is bullish
Price has been making Higher Highs and Higher Lows
Price has reached an area of resistance (supply zone) and preparing to sell off
I expect price to sell off and test the 50.0-61.8 fib level before the trend continuation.
AUDJPY SellReasons for short:
The price hit the channel upper side and seems to fail to make a higher high.
Potential forming double top pattern
Short
SHORT ON AUD/JPYAUD/JPY has made a pullback to a major supply area while also mitigating a FVG (fair value gap) in the same zone.
Jpyx index has major potential to rise. I expect AJ to fall and from this zone.
Looking to make 200-300 pips throughout the week.
Short
AUDJPY Daily Forecast -Q4 | W40 | D3 | Y25|📅 Q4 | W40 | D3 | Y25|
📊 AUDJPY Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
FX:AUDJPY
Short
AUDJPY Daily Forecast -Q3 | W40 | D30 | Y25|📅 Q3 | W40 | D30 | Y25|
📊 AUDJPY Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
FX:AUDJPY
Long
AUDJPY Daily Forecast -Q3 | W40 | D29 | Y25|FX:AUDJPY
📅 Q3 | W40 | D29 | Y25|
📊 AUDJPY Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
Long
AUDJPY SELL opportunity There is a sell opportunity arround
Based on supply zone level
Entry: 98.150
Stoploss: 98.300
Take profit: 97.250
Comment your opinion pls
Short
AUDJPY Daily Forecast -Q3 | W39 | D24 | Y25| 📅 Q3 | W39 | D24 | Y25|
📊 AUDJPY Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
FX:AUDJPY
Short