Daily Market Outlook | Clean Directional Bias – NZDCADEdition 4
This idea is part of my Daily Market Outlook series, where I define directional bias based on clean technical structure and price behavior .
Other pairs from today’s scan will be published separately.
Market Structure & Price Behavior
Price action on NZDCAD clearly shows progressive buyer participation , where different groups of traders stepped in sequentially and built bullish pressure over time.
First buyers entered at a well-defined support zone , initiating the first bullish reaction.
However, this buying pressure was not sufficient to break resistance , and price rotated back toward support.
At support, support & resistance traders stepped in again, adding long positions (second wave of buyers).
Once again, price failed to break resistance and paused.
A minor support zone then formed, where buyers added additional long exposure (third wave of buyers).
This accumulation phase finally provided enough pressure to break the descending trendline .
After the trendline break, trendline traders entered long positions (fourth wave of buyers),
creating a strong and coordinated bullish pressure across multiple trader groups.
At this point, the only missing component is confirmation from breakout traders .
A candle close above the trigger resistance level would likely invite support & resistance breakout participation , increasing the probability of continuation to the upside.
Directional Bias
Based on the structure above, NZDCAD carries a clear bullish directional bias .
This bias is not driven by a single signal, but by multiple schools of traders acting in alignment , which significantly increases probability.
If you appreciate clean, rule-based, and well-explained market analysis, feel free to follow.
Your thoughts and alternative perspectives are always welcome in the comments.
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Trading involves risk — always conduct your own analysis.
I am not responsible for any decisions or losses based on this idea.
Beyond Technical Analysis
Oil Target 62$: Sentiment Shifts Amid Geopolitical TensionsWe’re in a non-standard situation for oil markets — with the White House now openly threatening military action against Venezuela.
This dramatically increases the value of oil options sentiment.
You don’t need to be a PhD in geopolitics to understand:
A military operation = major supply disruption risk = price volatility on steroids.
And the market is already pricing it in.
Over the last two days, key levels like 58–60–72 have started appearing more and more in CME options flow — clear signs of positioning for extreme moves.
But here’s what matters most:
The trades that were placed before the Venezuela news broke.
That’s where we focus.
And if I had to summarize:
Two days ago, some guys were actively building spreads targeting 60–62 — betting on a pullback.
📌 Why?
These spreads are aggressive — they can generate 2x–3x returns from just a $2–$3 move, even if price doesn’t fully reach the target.
In short:
They’re not waiting for perfection.
They’re ready for explosion.
🔥 Final Take:
Yes, the option market has been extremely active over the past 48 hours — one of the busiest periods lately.
But beyond the noise, there’s a growing signal:
Oil is primed to explode.
And this "Venezuela narrative"?
It’s looking less like talk — and more like a setup for real movement. Big money is involved
The main question: will it explode before or after the New Year?
Apple - $265 Target, Shorts Catching Up, Losing the AI WarThe shorts seem to be catching up on the indicators with the bullish trendline breaking in support. Apple is also losing the AI wars, at least figuratively speaking (to some), and at the same time people are uncertain about earnings in 43 days. As always, none of this is investment or financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and research.
When Fear Meets Fundamentals: 5 Lessons for Crypto Traders1. Price controls your feelings, not the other way around 📉🧠
When the chart bleeds, everyone suddenly feels “certain” the future is bad. That’s just emotion chasing price. The fix: write your plan (entry, invalidation, size) *before* volatility hits, and follow that instead of your mood.
2. Stop worshipping one narrative 📊🧩
Halving cycles, “4‑year patterns,” single catalysts, none of them fully explain today’s market. Crypto is now tied to macro, flows, leverage, and tech themes all at once, so treat narratives as tools, not as gospel.
3. The Fed is the real boss 🏦⚙️
Unclear Fed policy and politics keep all risk assets on edge, so good news barely helps and bad news hits extra hard. If you trade crypto, you are indirectly trading interest‑rate expectations and liquidity too
4. Most experiments will die (and that’s normal) 💀🚀
DATs, tokens, new structures, think of them like IPOs or startups: the majority fail, a few become monsters. Don’t read every blow‑up as “crypto is dead”; focus on the handful of scaled, well‑run players that actually survive the shakeout.
5. Don’t use yesterday’s logic on tomorrow’s platforms 📱🔗
Saying “L2s and stablecoins don’t help Ethereum because fees are low” is like saying “mobile won’t help Facebook because it’s free.” Big platforms often let usage explode first and only later change the business model to capture value, your edge comes from seeing that shift *before* the old‑regime experts do.
BTCUSD 12/17/2025Come tap into the mind of SnipeGoat, as he gives you a Full Top-Down Analysis & Deep Dive into Bitcoins Price Action! A WONDERFUL update to his previous callout... & of course, hitting ya with another BOLD Call-out!
_SnipeGoat_
_TheeCandleReadingGURU_
#PriceAction #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #Bearish #Bullish #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSD #Forex #NakedChartReader #ZEROindicators #PreciseLevels #ProperTiming #PerfectDirection #ScalpingTrader #IntradayTrader #DayTrader #SwingTrader #PositionalTrader #HighLevelTrader #MambaMentality #GodMode #UltraInstinct #LawOfCirculation #TheeBibleStrategy
ETH: Price Slice. Capital Sector. 2854.65🏷 ETH: Price Slice. Capital Sector. Dated: 12.12.2025
🏷 2854.65 — Price not yet reached at time of publication
🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant 6
🏷 Screenshot
🏷 Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations.
The Architect
BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
Fast Bounce Setup | Price: 53.98 $ → Target: 56.67 $ (+5%)📈 Stock: MDLZ – Mondelez International 🍫🏭
🟢 Entry: 53.98 ⚡
🎯 Exit / Target: +5% → ~56.67 💰📈
🧱 Technical Support Strength
Price is holding a strong demand zone 🧱🟢
Repeated buyer reactions = solid support ✅✅
High-confidence base 🔒📉
📊 Weekly RSI Reset
RSI is deeply oversold, signaling potential rebound.
🔽⚡📈Momentum reset = fuel reload ⛽🔥
Often leads to next bullish push 🚀📈
📍 Pivot + Structure Confluence
Both Weekly & Dayly pivot support + prior structure 🎯
Confluence = higher bounce probability 📈💥
Bullish reaction favored 🟢❌
📉➡️📈 Short-Term Outlook
🚀 Expected move: ~5% upside
🔄 Mean reversion in progress
⚖️ Risk / reward favors longs 👍
📆 Mid / Long-Term Outlook
✔️ Higher-timeframe trend intact 📈
✔️ Healthy pullback, not a breakdown 🔄
✔️ Swing & position friendly 🟢📊
💼📊 Fundamental Strength
📈 Consistent revenue & earnings growth
💰 Strong cash flow & defensive business model 🛡️
🌍 Global brand power + pricing strength 🍫🏆
🔮 High expected future growth based on analyst forecasts 🚀
Fundamentals + technicals = high-conviction setup 💎
✅ Final Summary
🧱 Strong support
📊 RSI reset
🎯 Pivot confluence
💼 Solid fundamentals
🔮 Growth outlook strong
➡️ Entry: 54.03 ⚡
➡️ Target: 56.67$ 💰🚀
➡️ Bias: Bullish continuation 📈🔥
BTCUSD 12/17/2025Come tap into the mind of SnipeGoat, as he gives you a Full Top-Down Analysis & Deep Dive into Bitcoins Price Action! A WONDERFUL update to his previous callout... & of course, hitting ya with another BOLD Call-out!
_SnipeGoat_
_TheeCandleReadingGURU_
#PriceAction #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #Bearish #Bullish #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSD #Forex #NakedChartReader #ZEROindicators #PreciseLevels #ProperTiming #PerfectDirection #ScalpingTrader #IntradayTrader #DayTrader #SwingTrader #PositionalTrader #HighLevelTrader #MambaMentality #GodMode #UltraInstinct #LawOfCirculation #TheeBibleStrategy
How to Identify a Ranging Market Before It Traps You.Price is moving. But not every move is an opportunity.
This 1H Bitcoin chart is a textbook example of why traders get chopped up — even when structure and levels look "clear."
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WHAT THIS CHART SHOWS
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Look at the price action from Dec 14–18:
- Dec 14–15: Sideways grind near 90K resistance
- Dec 15: Sharp drop from 90K → 85K (liquidity sweep)
- Dec 16–18: Price trapped in the Chop Zone (85K–88K)
Every push fades. Every breakout attempt stalls. Classic ranging behavior.
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HOW TO SPOT A RANGE
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Ask yourself:
1. Is price making higher highs AND higher lows? → If NO, likely ranging
2. Do breakouts hold? → If they fade quickly, it's a range
3. Is volatility expanding or contracting? → Contracting = range
4. Are there multiple failed attempts at the same level? → Range behavior
On this chart: ❌ No trend structure ❌ Breakouts fade ❌ Volatility flat
Verdict: RANGE — not a trending environment.
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WHY THIS MATTERS
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In ranging conditions:
- Breakouts are more likely to fail
- Continuations lack momentum
- Liquidity sweeps dominate
- Mean-reversion > trend-following
The problem isn't your entry. It's the regime mismatch.
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WHAT TO DO IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
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✓ Reduce position size
✓ Reduce trade frequency
✓ Avoid chasing breakouts
✓ Expect rotation, not extension
✓ Wait for regime shift before trending plays
Waiting is a valid trading decision.
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KEY TAKEAWAY
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Most losses happen when traders force trend logic into a market that isn't trending.
Context first. Execution second.
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This is NOT a trade call. This is NOT a buy/sell signal.
This is an educational breakdown of market behavior.
The key is whether the price can break above the 0.04032-0.04342
Hello, traders!
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Have a great day.
-------------------------------------
(JSTUSDT 1M chart)
If the price holds above 0.03942, a full-scale uptrend is expected to begin.
-
(1W chart)
If the price rises with support near 0.03942, an upward breakout near 0.05111 is likely to initiate an uptrend.
If the price fails to rise and falls,
1st: 0.03543
2nd: 0.02679
We should check for support near the 1st and 2nd levels above.
-
(1D chart)
The HA-High ~ DOM(60) range is formed between 0.04032 and 0.04342.
Therefore, a breakout above 0.04032 and 0.04342 is necessary for a stepwise uptrend to occur.
The first resistance level of the step-up trend is expected to be around 0.05111-0.05426.
Since the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is passing around 0.03543, if it falls below 0.03543, it's advisable to halt trading and assess the situation.
To break above a key point or range and continue the uptrend, the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
If possible,
- The StochRSI indicator should not enter the overbought zone.
- The TC indicator should remain above zero.
- The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
Currently, the StochRSI indicator has entered the overbought zone, which could limit the upside.
To overcome this and continue the uptrend, trading volume must increase explosively.
If not, you should look for a sideways movement and see if it tests support.
-
Thank you for reading.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
Affirm Holdings - Looking to re-affirm further upside?Growing Revenue, chart staggering to the upside...Is NASDAQ:AFRM looking to swing higher?
Our systems have identified a point of potential interest & volatility in AFRM.
If price can hold above $64.12 ... Significant Bullish potential may be unlocked.
If however price falls below $64.12 ... Significant Bearish risk may come into play.
As things sit now, it seems momentum may have turned to the upside for AFRM, but will it hold? Let's find out...
We're inspired to bring you the latest developments across worldwide markets, helping you look in the right place, at the right time.
Thank you for reading! Stay tuned for further updates, and we look forward to being of service along your trading & investing journey...
Disclaimer: Please note all information contained within this post and all other Bullfinder-official Tradingview content is strictly for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice. Please DYOR & Consult your licensed financial advisors before acting on any information contained within this post, or any other Bullfinder-official TV content.
Report 17/12/25Report summary
Policy is loosening at the margin in the U.S. while Europe tightens the screws on Russia’s energy trade and debates how to mobilize frozen Russian assets. Japan’s new fiscal push is lifting JGB yields to multi-decade highs and keeping the yen on the defensive. Together, these currents are softening the dollar’s grip on global liquidity, adding a modest risk premium to crude, and supporting gold on dips. U.S. equities remain biased higher into year-end on easier financial conditions and AI-led capex, but the tape is sensitive to data and the path of Fed easing. The key swing risks are (i) how aggressively Brussels enforces energy sanctions and what it does with Russian reserves, (ii) the size and financing of Japan’s stimulus, and (iii) any renewed U.S. action that crimps Venezuelan or Russian flows. The day’s developments below, each with source-backing, anchor the outlook and the asset implications that follow.
Market reactions
U.S. rates policy has shifted into a gentler stance after the Fed’s latest “cut-and-cap” step, which flowed through to benchmarks that set household and corporate borrowing costs: the WSJ Prime Rate reset to 6.75%, signaling easier domestic financial conditions even as officials continue to jawbone about data dependence. Equities traded constructively into the close on days when cuts came into view; the dollar’s trade-weighted measures have been choppy rather than one-way, reflecting the tug-of-war between U.S. easing and non-U.S. macro weakness. The immediate read-across has been mildly risk-on in U.S. indices, a firmer tone in cyclicals when the dollar eases, and a sturdier bid for gold on dips as real yields edge lower.
Energy is trading with a small geopolitical premium as Washington steps up enforcement around sanctioned barrels and logistics: the U.S. seizure of a tanker carrying Russian crude bound for Venezuela underscored a tougher stance that can intermittently tighten Atlantic Basin supplies, particularly for sour grades that refiners still need. The action slots into a broader pattern of enforcement escalation that also includes Brussels’ blacklisting of named intermediaries in Russia’s oil trade.
In Europe, policy noise remains bond-spread relevant. EU leaders are pressing on with mechanisms to harness frozen Russian assets, either through securitizing future windfall profits or more assertive constructs, while simultaneously tightening sanctions implementation. Even without a final legal architecture, the policy direction keeps an incremental bid under EU defense and energy security themes and a watchful market eye on any retaliatory steps from Moscow.
Japan is the cleanest macro impulse outside the U.S.: a larger-than-expected supplemental budget and the signalling around it have pushed the 10-year JGB yield into territory not seen since 2008, with the long end (20s/30s) bear-steepening on supply expectations. The “Takaiichi trade” (bigger fiscal, more JGB duration) has kept USDJPY biased topside and intervention risk alive if volatility accelerates, even as foreign buyers step in for long-dated paper on yield pick-up.
Strategic forecasts
In the U.S., the near-term base case is a modest easing cycle that proceeds cautiously, enough to keep financial conditions supportive but not so fast as to reopen an inflation impulse. That mix should keep the growth/quality factor bid in equities while anchoring the front end of the curve. The dollar’s medium-term path hinges on relative growth; with Japan and parts of Europe leaning on fiscal outlays to offset weak private demand, the cyclical gap to the U.S. may narrow, which would reduce the dollar’s carry advantage at the margin.
Europe’s sanctions enforcement will matter more than new headline packages. By moving beyond flags of convenience to named traders, the EU raises the cost of sanctions evasion; that can marginally tighten Russian export logistics, nudge Urals differentials wider, and transmit to Brent when inventories are lean. If Brussels also operationalizes larger-scale use of Russian reserves (even via windfall profits), expect legal contestation but also a clearer multi-year funding path for Ukraine that markets will discount into EU sovereign supply and defense-industry orderbooks.
Japan’s fiscal-plus-yields mix remains a global duration shock absorber. Higher JGB term premia pull some marginal capital home and raise the bar for U.S. long-end rallies; at the same time, the carry math still disfavors the yen until either term premia narrow or the MoF/BoJ set a sharper line in the sand. Watch the 155–160 zone for signaling shifts.
Fiscal & political implications
Washington’s firmer sanctions enforcement (Venezuela/Russia lanes) is domestically sellable, tough on Moscow, minimal headline gasoline pain for now, and internationally coordinated with Brussels’ trajectory. But if enforcement materially crimps heavy/sour availability, refiners’ margins will widen and some downstream prices could feel it, complicating the Fed’s disinflation optics later in 2026.
In Brussels, moving from “package talk” to enforcement and asset-use mechanics carries legal-political risk. The more Brussels leans into frozen reserves, the higher the probability of countersanctions or litigation that could entangle EU banks and clearing systems; nonetheless, markets typically reward credible multi-year Ukraine financing with tighter periphery spreads relative to a muddle-through.
Tokyo’s budget arithmetic—bigger deficits and heavier long-dated issuance—raises debt-sustainability chatter but also catalyzes domestic political support by cushioning households. The global spillover is via rates (bear steepening) and FX (yen weakness unless the MoF acts).
Risks & opportunities
Primary risks: (i) a sanctions-driven crude spike if enforcement bites at the same time OPEC+ supply discipline holds; (ii) yen volatility that forces disorderly covering in carry structures; (iii) a slower-than-assumed U.S. disinflation path that crimps the Fed’s ability to ease. Offsetting opportunities: (a) defense and energy-security capex in the EU; (b) Japan value and banks benefiting from higher term premia; (c) U.S. quality growth/AI infrastructure as capex remains resilient even with a softer policy rate backdrop.
Asset-by-asset take
XAUUSD (Gold): The policy-mix now, gentler Fed, firmer sanctions enforcement, keeps dips supported as real yields drift lower and geopolitical risk premia pulse higher when oil logistics are disrupted. Expect buy-the-dip behavior into support zones on any DXY soft patches; the bigger risk to gold is a renewed back-up in real yields if U.S. data re-accelerate.
S&P 500 / Dow Jones: Easing financial conditions and resilient AI-capex narratives leave the path of least resistance higher, but breadth will matter if the dollar firms or if input costs rise with oil. Cyclicals should outperform on days when the dollar weakens; quality growth remains core as long as the Fed signals cut-and-cap rather than cut-and-panic.
USDJPY: The fiscal-led rise in JGB yields hasn’t flipped the sign on interest differentials; the pair stays biased topside while MoF intervention risk caps extremes. A disorderly move toward 160 would likely invite action; calmer sessions still favor a grind higher if U.S. long rates hold up.
DXY (broad dollar): Near-term two-way. U.S. easing argues for a softer DXY, but Europe’s growth drag and Japan’s still-easy policy limit how far rivals can rally. Enforcement-related oil spikes can be dollar-positive via risk aversion; credible Ukraine-funding progress would be euro-supportive on the margin.
Crude oil (Brent/WTI): Enforcement actions, from EU blacklisting of oil intermediaries to U.S. seizures around sanctioned flows—insert a small, persistent premium into the curve, especially for heavy/sour grades. If OPEC+ compliance stays tight and OECD stocks draw, the upside tails fatten; conversely, a growth scare in Europe would shave demand and limit rallies.
XAUUSD at Premium Supply – Patience Before the Next Big MoveXAUUSD (Gold) – 30 Minute Chart Analysis
Market Structure Overview
On the 30-minute timeframe, XAUUSD shows a strong impulsive bullish move followed by a controlled pullback, which is a classic sign of healthy price behavior. The market previously formed a base and then expanded aggressively upward, breaking multiple minor resistances with momentum candles. This confirms that buyers were in control during the impulsive phase.
However, price has now reached a high-probability supply area, marked as Reversal Zone 1 and Reversal Zone 2, where selling pressure has started to appear.
Reversal Zones & Institutional Area
The upper highlighted area represents a premium reversal zone, where price previously reacted sharply. The rejection from this zone is visible through long wicks and strong bearish candles, indicating institutional selling and profit-taking.
This area is critical because:
It aligns with previous highs
It shows imbalance resolution
It is a zone where smart money typically distributes positions
The sharp rejection confirms that buyers are becoming weak at higher prices, increasing the probability of a corrective move.
Current Price Behavior
After rejection from the upper reversal zone, price is now pulling back in a structured manner, not collapsing aggressively. This tells us the move is corrective, not a trend reversal yet.
The dotted line labeled Pattern Must highlights the importance of waiting for confirmation, not chasing price. The market is currently in a decision phase.
Demand Zone & Volume Expectation
Below the current price lies a well-defined Reversal / Demand Zone, supported by:
Previous price consolidation
Strong bullish reaction in the past
Anticipated volume burst area
This zone is highly important because it is where:
Buyers may re-enter the market
Liquidity rests below recent lows
Smart money may accumulate again
If price reaches this area with decreasing bearish momentum, a bullish reaction is highly probable.
Trading Scenarios
Bullish Scenario:
If price taps the lower reversal zone and forms:
Bullish engulfing
Strong rejection wicks
Increased volume
Then this confirms buyer interest, opening the door for continuation toward previous highs.
Bearish Scenario:
If price fails to hold the demand zone and closes strongly below it, this would indicate:
Breakdown of structure
Shift in short-term momentum
Deeper retracement toward lower liquidity zones
Trader’s Mindset (Very Important)
This is not a chase market. Patience is key.
Let price come into your zones and react, not predict.
High-probability trades come when:
Zone + structure + confirmation align
Emotion is removed
Risk is controlled
Remember: zones are areas, not exact prices.
Final Thoughts
XAUUSD is currently transitioning from impulse to correction. The market is offering clean, technical zones where professional traders wait for confirmation instead of guessing. Let price show its hand — the best trades will come from reaction, not anticipation.
Gold Context: Mechanical Balance & The Poor HighFOREXCOM:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 COMEX:GC1!
Analysis
1. Market Context (Mechanical Balance)
The auction has entered a phase of Mechanical Balance . By maintaining trade above 4300 for a week, the market is signaling acceptance of higher prices, but the momentum has paused.
* The Behavior: The test of yesterday’s Midpoint/POC and the "mild" activity confirms that Short-Term Timeframe traders are currently dominant. They are trading off visual references rather than creating new value.
2. Structure (The Poor High)
We have a structural anomaly at the 4380/90 area : a Poor High .
* Implication: A poor high lacks "excess" (a buying tail), which indicates the auction did not finish properly. Selling wasn't aggressive; buying simply dried up. This leaves "unfinished business" to the upside.
* The Nuance: While the destination is likely higher to repair this poor high, the market may lack the immediate energy to do so without an inventory adjustment first.
3. Short-Term Scenario (Liquidation)
The mild, mechanical trade increases the odds of Long Liquidation .
* The Flush: A rotation back toward the 4300 shelf would test the lower limits of this balance.
* The Opportunity: If we flush to 4300 and find responsive buying, it re-energizes the market to finally go up and repair the 4380/90 poor high.
Plan & Execution
* Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish (awaiting repair).
* Observation: Watch the 4300 test. Do we get a "look below and fail" (bullish) or acceptance lower? The poor high remains a magnet for the future.
Talk to you for the next update.
ETH Price Slice. Capital Sector. 2777.24🏷 ETH Price Slice. Capital Sector. Date: 17.12.2025
🏷 2777.24 — Price not yet reached at time of publication
🏷 Ξ-Covenant Passport: Energy Commitment of Price Execution (the essence of future numbers is to see the vertical order of the price sector, whose foundation is the binding of price to the production energy of miners born in the blockchain)
Today I will not disclose the execution number and priority on charts. For there is only one master of the price sector — the new international technical analysis, existing across multiple dimensions through its analytical grid.
This system is demonstrated to the international class of market participants — from retail traders to institutional players and major corporations — without revealing the secrets of capital. To approach understanding price and its execution order, we must first comprehend the essence of miners' production energy.
The future has already arrived. I am its declarant.
Soon the world will be presented with a price sector available exclusively to my subscribers. I express deep respect to the TradingView moderators for the opportunity to demonstrate what the markets have been awaiting for so long.
I am the founder of this direction. My analytical method, requiring no words or translation, will become clear to all through the demonstration of the analytical grid of the price sector — revealed through the logic of mathematics, new technical analysis, and understanding the marking of multimillion flows of miners' production energy.
This is not a forecast. This is a declaration of new reality.
🏷 Screenshot
🏷 I. Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
🏷 II. Execution Tithe
Instruction for the International Arena: Execution Tithe
🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations.
The Architect
BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
Long BAX exit around 5 trading days max.Current technicals:
Currently: ~$19, bouncing slightly after hitting near 52-week lows
The Bad: Stock is in a downtrend. Moving averages say "sell." Down ~37% from last year's highs. Momentum is weak.
The Maybe Good: Stock is so beaten down it might be near a bottom. Some traders see a potential bounce setup at these multi-year support levels.
Bottom Line: Falling knife territory. Most indicators bearish, but contrarian traders watching for reversal signs. High risk.
Ventas, Inc. (VTR) – Short Setup Technical AnalysisVentas, Inc. (VTR) – Short Setup Technical Analysis
VTR is currently trading above the Anchored VWAP, with price positioned between the 2nd and 3rd VWAP deviation bands, signaling a clear overextension away from fair value. At these levels, upside continuation typically becomes increasingly inefficient.
This extension aligns with the formation of a bearish Crab harmonic pattern, which often develops near terminal phases of an advance. The Crab completion zone defines a technically significant area where buying pressure tends to fade and risk shifts decisively toward a reversal or mean-reversion move.
From a tactical standpoint, the setup favors a mean-reversion driven short position. A rejection within the deviation 2–3 VWAP zone would confirm distribution and increase the probability of a rotation back toward the Anchored VWAP and prior value area.
Bias: Short on rejection between VWAP deviation 2 and 3
Target: Mean reversion toward Anchored VWAP
Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above the 3rd VWAP deviation band
Context: Bearish Crab completion + VWAP deviation extension = asymmetric short opportunity
State Street Corporation (STT) – Short Setup Technical AnalysisState Street Corporation (STT) – Short Setup Technical Analysis
State Street Corporation is currently trading well outside the 3rd Anchored VWAP band, indicating a pronounced overextension away from fair value and a high probability of mean reversion. Price acceptance at these levels is typically unstable, particularly in the absence of accelerating volume.
This extension coincides with the completion of a bearish Butterfly harmonic pattern, a structure that frequently marks terminal moves and exhaustion within an advance. The Butterfly completion zone defines a technically relevant area where upside continuation becomes increasingly asymmetric.
From a tactical standpoint, the setup favors a short positioning on rejection, rather than trend continuation. Any failure to maintain acceptance above the upper VWAP band would confirm loss of bullish control and increase the likelihood of a rotation back toward the Anchored VWAP and prior value area.
Bias: Short on rejection outside the 3rd VWAP band
Target: Mean reversion toward Anchored VWAP
Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above the Butterfly completion zone
Context: Bearish Butterfly completion + VWAP overextension = high-probability short setup
Head & Shoulders - IBOXX & Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETFWhen things like investment grade bonds looks top (ish). That´s when you know it´s time to really start thinking about exiting. To me this is another sign of a bubble.
Investment grade is supposed to be the most safest bets after treasuries.
The BOJ will decided the markets faith on friday. Most likely the spreads of the US & Japan 2 year yields will come closer to equilibrium and that could very well trigger the carry trade.
Im on high alert this time around. Im scaling down on risk and will watch what happens on friday.
BTCUSDT Analysis : Bearish Setup, Bitcoin Faces Strong RejectionBTCUSDT PERPETUAL – 1 Hour Chart Analysis
Market Structure
On the 1-hour timeframe, BTCUSDT shows a strong bearish displacement from the highs, indicating clear dominance by sellers. The aggressive sell-off broke previous structure and pushed price into a short-term accumulation phase. After forming a base, price attempted a corrective move to the upside, but this recovery lacked strong continuation volume.
The overall structure still remains bearish, as price failed to reclaim key resistance zones with strength.
Reversal Zone Reaction
The highlighted Reversal Zone above current price is a critical supply area where sellers previously entered the market aggressively. Price retraced into this zone and immediately showed rejection, confirmed by strong bearish candles and long upper wicks. This reaction suggests that smart money used this area to re-enter short positions rather than allow bullish continuation.
This rejection validates the zone as a high-probability resistance, reinforcing bearish bias unless price can decisively reclaim and hold above it.
Breakdown & Momentum Shift
After rejecting from the reversal zone, BTCUSDT started printing lower highs, signaling weakness in buyers. The current price action shows sellers regaining control, with momentum shifting back to the downside. The absence of bullish follow-through confirms that the move up was corrective rather than impulsive.
This behavior aligns with classic pullback-to-supply mechanics in a bearish trend.
Liquidity & Correction Zone (CZ)
Below current price, the marked Correction Zone (CZ) represents an area where internal liquidity exists. This zone often acts as a temporary pause where price may react briefly before continuation. However, without a strong bullish pattern, this area is more likely to be a minor reaction point, not a trend reversal zone.
Traders should remain cautious here and wait for price behavior confirmation.
Target Zone & Projection
The lower highlighted Target Zone aligns with:
Previous swing lows
High liquidity resting below the range
An area where sell-side stops are likely to be triggered
The projected move indicates a potential liquidity sweep into the target zone, followed by the possibility of a technical bounce. However, the note “Need Positive Pattern” clearly emphasizes that no blind buying should be done. A bullish confirmation pattern is required before considering long positions.
Trading Psychology & Execution Mindset
This setup favors patience and discipline. The market is not offering immediate confirmation for longs. Selling rallies remains the safer approach until price reaches deeper demand and shows a clear change in character.
Professional traders wait for:
Structure shift
Strong rejection or absorption
Clear bullish confirmation at target zones
Not every zone is a trade — confirmation is king.
Final Outlook
BTCUSDT remains bearish on the 1-hour timeframe. The rejection from the reversal zone strengthens the downside bias, with price likely targeting lower liquidity zones. Any bullish opportunity should only be considered after strong confirmation at the lower target area. Until then, the market favors sellers.
Axis Bank | Gann Square of 9 Intraday Case Study (15 March 2024)This idea explains an intraday price reaction in Axis Bank using the Gann Square of 9 method, focusing on price–time balance.
On 15 March 2024, Axis Bank showed initial weakness from the first 15-minute candle.
The high of the first 15-minute candle near 1050 was considered as the 0-degree reference, following classical WD Gann methodology.
Using Square of 9 calculations, the following key level was derived:
45° level → 1034
Price declined rapidly and reached the 45-degree level very early in the session (around 9:45 AM), much before the commonly observed time balance later in the day.
Such early completion of price expansion often reflects price exhaustion.
After testing the 45° level, Axis Bank showed rejection and reversal, offering clean intraday recovery points from that zone.
🔍 Key Observations
Define the 0-degree base from early intraday structure
Use 45° as a normal price expansion reference
Early arrival at angle levels can indicate imbalance
Gann geometry helps identify logical reaction areas, not predictions
This case study demonstrates how price and time symmetry can be observed using structured chart analysis.
Disclaimer:
This idea is shared strictly for educational and analytical purposes only.
It does not constitute investment or trading advice.






















