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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)

BTC — Bitcoin: Macro x ETFs x Hashrate → Real Flow, Real Volatil⭐️ BTC — Bitcoin: Macro x ETFs x Hashrate → Real Flow, Real Volatility Buy/Hold bias long term; short-term: correction likely in September (seasonality), with bear target ≈ $88,000 in my playbook. 🔥 Latest headlines (spot check) 🔸BTC back near $111K as risk assets bounce to start September. 🔸Hashrate sets a fresh record (~1 zettahash/s 7-day avg); a >7% difficulty hike is expected within days. Network is the strongest ever, but miner margins tighten. 🔸U.S. spot BTC ETFs show renewed net inflows (e.g., +$333M on Sep 2 across funds). Flows remain a key daily demand gauge. 🔸MicroStrategy (now “Strategy”) bought more BTC last week (~4,4k coins; holdings ≈ 636.5k BTC)—ongoing corporate bid. 🔸Europe angle: a Winklevoss-backed bitcoin treasury firm plans an Amsterdam listing, signaling appetite for listed BTC exposure in the EU. 🗓 Near-term event & data catalysts (September) 🔸Fri, Sep 5 — U.S. Jobs (NFP, Aug) at 08:30 ET. Labor softness would bolster rate-cut odds and risk appetite; a beat could do the opposite. 🔸Wed, Sep 11 — U.S. CPI (Aug) at 08:30 ET. Inflation surprise drives real-rate expectations → BTC beta. 🔸Tue–Wed, Sep 16–17 — FOMC + press conference. Policy path & dot plot = macro volatility for BTC. Fri, Sep 26 — Options/Derivs expiry: • Deribit monthly BTC options expire 08:00 UTC (last Friday rule). • CME Bitcoin monthly options settle Sep 26 as well. These expiries often amplify gamma flows and spot-vol. Early Sept — Next difficulty adjustment likely >7% up (tightens miner economics short-term). Medium-dated overhang Mt. Gox creditor deadline: Oct 31, 2025. Any schedule/details update could swing “supply overhang” narratives. 📈 Flows & on-chain/market structure 🔸ETF flows remain the cleanest real-time demand proxy; watch daily creations/redemptions. 🔸Sustained positives tend to align with spot strength; outsized outflows can weigh on price. 🔸Network health is stellar (ATH hashrate), but rising difficulty + a softer tape can pressure high-cost miners → potential miner selling into weakness. 🔸Corporate treasuries (e.g., Strategy/MSTR) keep adding on dips—bullish signal for supply absorption on red days. 🧠 Seasonality & tone check September is historically a weak month for BTC (average ~−3% to −4% since 2013), which fits the current “pullback/mean-revert” setup. 📣 Social/flow buzz (signals, not noise) 🔸ETF flow posts (Farside, Bloomberg desks) are getting traction again—watch after U.S. close for prints. 🔸Saylor/Strategy buying headlines keep the “corporate bid” narrative front-and-center. 🧭 Levels & plan (author’s framework) 🔸Bias: Long-term constructive; near-term: correction mode likely extends through September (seasonality + event risk). 🔸Bear target: $88,000 (where I’d expect volatility to attract responsive buyers). 🔸Invalidation for bears (tactical): A strong reclaim/close above ~$113K–$115K with improving 🔸ETF inflows would weaken the pullback thesis. 🔸Sizing: Respect macro data days (NFP/CPI/Fed) and options expiry week—expect higher realized vol. 🗺 What to watch next (checklist) 🔸Daily U.S. spot BTC ETF flows (post-close updates). Momentum if creations persist; caution on redemptions clusters. 🔸Sep 5 — NFP (Aug) 08:30 ET. Risk-on if soft; risk-off if hot. 🔸Sep 11 — CPI (Aug) 08:30 ET. Headline/core surprises steer the FOMC tone. 🔸Sep 16–17 — FOMC + presser. Watch guidance on cuts, balance sheet, and growth. 🔸Sep 26 — Deribit & CME monthly expiries. Positioning/“max pain” dynamics into that Friday. Difficulty adjustment (early Sept). If >7% up as projected, monitor miner behavior/sell pressure.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
36
Bitcoin (BTC), End of Cycle Season Based on Cycle DurationBINANCE:BTCUSDT Bitcoin appears to have already formed its peak within the current bullish cycle and may now be preparing for a correction. Alternatively, if BTC makes another attempt to reach a new all-time high within October, that period could mark the final peak of this cycle. Looking at historical data, Bitcoin has shown a repeating pattern — an uptrend lasting approximately 3 years and 11 months (1,065 days) from the bottom, followed by a downtrend of about 1 year (365 days) from the peak. During down cycles, the cycle low has typically formed between the EMA 50 and EMA 100. Backtesting monthly charts shows that Bitcoin often breaks below the EMA 50, finds support above the EMA 100, and then breaks through the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling the start of a new bullish cycle. Become an early follower and be part of the journey.🚀 I am Korean and I used Google Translate.
Short
by Now_Trading
BITCOIN IDEA Bitcoin is still stuck in a sideways range. KEY level bullish is at 122,300, and right now price isfilling orders near 121,183 daily cap. That means we’re kind of in the middle — not super strong, not super weak. The daily trend is still up, but price is pulling back a bit to fill orders. If Bitcoin starts dropping, 118,543 is the next big level to watch. If it holds and bounces, we might see another push higher. If it breaks, we could fall deeper into that lower area. The U.S. dollar is strong this week → makes it harder for BTC to move up. Jack Dorsey (the Twitter guy) just dropped a new Bitcoin wallet — cool for long-term use. So for now: stay patient, watch 121K and 118K zones, and don’t chase candles.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
Bitcoin Roadmap: Is a Major Correction the Next Stop?As I expected from the previous analysis , Bitcoin did start to drop and hit its targets . Now, with the news that the U.S. might impose a 100% tariff on China , we saw Bitcoin sharply sell off last night. Actually, as I mentioned in my previous ideas , the rally from about $109,000 to around $126,199(ATH ) (which was a new all-time high for Bitcoin) had relatively low volume. That was a sign that a correction might be on the way, and last night’s news just acted as a trigger to speed it up. In fact, what took Bitcoin 10 days to climb was reversed in about 4 days , showing how strong the sellers are right now. Educational tip: You can use volume candles on TradingView to see which candles had higher volume—the thicker the candle, the more significant the move. Now, the big question: will Bitcoin keep dropping or bounce back? Right now, it’s sitting near a cluster of Support lines and close to the daily 200_SMA(Daily) and the 50_SMA(Weekly) , as well as a Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820) . Last night’s drop was basically the first test of these supports . Since it’s the weekend and volumes are usually lower, we don’t expect a huge downward move in the next 48 hours. Bitcoin might do a pullback to the broken Resistance zone($114,820-$113,180) and then continue its drop. According to Elliott Wave analysis , Bitcoin seems to be completing a microwave 4 of the main wave 3 . I expect that after Bitcoin completes , we might see it continue downward and fill the CME Gap($111,355-$109,915) early in the next week. So, do you think the major correction for Bitcoin has started or not? Let me know what you think! Note: In case the Support lines break, there’s also a chance that we might see a Death Cross (where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average), which could signal further bearish momentum. Note: Around the $108,000 level, we have huge buy orders stacked up, which might act as a significant support zone. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
2
The Bitcoin bearish era has begun (1D)First of all, you should know that in our previous analyses, we had identified a large triangle. However, the market makers created another bullish wave, increasing the chart’s error margin (The scenario you see in the related ideas section.). This sharp move indicates the beginning of new bearish branches! It is expected that with a pullback to the red zone, the correction will continue, and we will be involved in it for at least a few months. Closing a daily candle above the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
Short
by behdark
2
BITCOIN Will Go Higher! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for BITCOIN. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 116,693.38. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 123,791.64 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:BTCUSDLong
by SignalProvider
2
#BITCOIN ANALYSIS I have been warning you for the last 45 days #BITCOIN ANALYSIS I have been warning you for the last 45 days that a big dump was coming and now it’s playing out exactly. Bitcoin has already dumped around $20K and is now trading near 112K, right at the major resistance zone that has triggered every big correction since 2018. A small bounce to 115K–116K is possible, but after that I expect another leg down toward 100K, and potentially lower to 90K. I’m still holding my 50% short position. If anything changes or I close my position, I’ll update you. Remember I mentioned earlier that if BTC went back to 125K–128K, I would add more shorts and that plan hasn’t changed. Till Monday, I expect some volatility, but Monday’s price action will give a clearer direction. 🔸 Weekly: BTC touched the long-term trendline again → clear rejection happened. 👉 Until we get a weekly close above 125K, the risk of a major pullback stays high. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 🔸 Daily: Price is inside the 110K–125K supply zone. Structure is weak. If price breaks and resists below 110K, then 100K is the next target. 📊 My Trade: ✅ First target 105K hit Holding 50% shorts, expecting a bounce to 115K, then lower. 📌 Downside Targets: 105K ✅ → 100K → 95K → 90K
Short
by CryptoSkullSignal
BITCOIN UpdateWeekly Wrap: The Dollar Holds the Key BTC hit the highs, we shorted the trap, and rode it clean back to range low — 109,358. That level? It’s the bearish validation line — the hinge between bull control and breakdown. Now, price rejected 109 and bounced. As long as this weekly candle closes above 107,250, structure stays technically bullish. No weakness on tape, just normal liquidity rotation. That’s why I’m closing the heavy shorts and keeping only micro runners. The market still reads algorithmically bullish unless that low gives way. The wildcard, as always: the Dollar. We’re sitting in a high-probability sell zone. If DXY rolls over, that fuels risk-on flow — BTC, Gold, and Euro all breathe again. But if market makers squeeze it higher, that’s death to metals and crypto. Expect a sharp flush across the board. 📊 Bottom line: → BTC structure intact. → DXY in sell territory, but not confirmed. → Watch weekly close — 107,250 is everything. Stay calm. This is the part where most traders misread rotation as reversal.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
BTC → Correction phase before bullish expansionBTC/USD Report-Based Analysis Bitcoin is currently in a corrective phase following a structured upward delivery. After showing strength early in the cycle, the market transitioned into a redistribution and consolidation zone, allowing liquidity to rebalance across both sides. This shift suggests that price is undergoing a short-term reaccumulation before the next impulsive move. The recent break of structure (BOS) indicates a temporary bearish delivery, designed to sweep liquidity below prior demand zones. Smart money appears to be collecting positions in discounted price areas, absorbing sell-side liquidity as volatility expands. The clean liquidity pockets under 116,000–114,000 levels highlight potential mitigation zones where larger participants may seek re-entry. The overall structure remains bullish on the higher timeframe. Once the current correction finalizes and liquidity is efficiently collected, BTC may resume its upward expansion, targeting premium zones near 125,000 and above. Momentum confirmation from volume and market flow will be essential for validating this transition back into a bullish delivery phase. In short, BTC is in a controlled correction, aiming to refine liquidity before reinitiating its bullish macro delivery cycle.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XAU_EMPIRE
BTCUSD update Bitcoin just smashed through another order block and slipped straight into the discount zone — the area where opportunity often hides. Price has flushed thru last oredblock and is now sitting deep in liquidity pockets Structure remains bearish in the short term, but momentum hints at a possible rotation higher if we see dollar to reclaim lower levels, lets see what next week brings to us This has been an incredible trading week — multiple clean plays across majors and BTC delivering textbook structure. Now comes the patience phase. Let price confirm before adding exposure. #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #SmartMoney #CORE5TRADECRAFT #MarketStructure #OrderFlow #TradingView
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
BTCUSD – Key Decision Zone Forming Between 121.7K–122.3K | Bitcoin is currently retesting a key supply zone around 121.7K–122.3K, aligning with previous structure highs and imbalance. This zone will likely determine the next major intraday move. Market Outlook: 📊 Previous Day High: 123,841 – acts as upside liquidity target 🟨 Key Zone: 121.7K–122.3K (potential reaction area) 🧠 Scenarios: Bullish: Clean break + retest above 122.3K → targets 123.8K Bearish: Rejection from the zone → move back to 119.7K (previous day low) ⚖️ Bias: Neutral until breakout confirmation Smart traders will wait for a liquidity sweep + confirmation candle before committing. Stay patient — volatility incoming.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheWallstreetCapital
BTC Daily – After the ATH, The Market Takes a Breath BTC tapped the 161.8% Fib. level, setting a new all-time high of 126K on Monday, October 6. Since then, price has retraced to the BB Center and today’s candle opened below it. If today’s close remains under the BB Center, there’s a strong chance for another leg down in the short term. From a system perspective, momentum is tilting bearish: Price < BB Center < SMA < MLR, confirming short-term weakness. RSI has crossed below its moving average, and MACD is about to turn red. All signs point to a cooling phase after the run to new highs, a normal reset within a larger cycle. Bias: Short-term bearish, healthy pullback after overextension. Always take profits and manage risk. Interaction is welcome.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by vagada
ETHUSDT: Minor Pullback After Rally, Signs of Ongoing RecoveryHello everyone, after reaching the recent peak near $4,500, Ethereum is showing signs of a mild correction. However, the decline quickly stabilised around $4,440, where buyers re-entered, and the Ichimoku cloud continues to provide solid support on the 4H chart. Technically, ETH remains in a bullish structure with a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The Fair Value Gaps (FVG) created during the previous rally are yet to be fully filled, suggesting the market could see brief retests before resuming its upward movement. The recent pullback is mainly driven by macro factors. Comments from several Fed officials hinted that monetary tightening could persist longer than expected, strengthening the USD and real yields, thereby putting pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies. At the same time, stronger-than-expected CPI and PCE data in the US have reignited inflation concerns, further boosting the dollar. This, combined with a temporary rotation into safe-haven assets, triggered short-term profit-taking in Ethereum. Nonetheless, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. As long as the price stays above $4,400–$4,350, Ethereum is likely to recover towards $4,500 and potentially extend to $4,600. The short-term invalidation level lies at $4,350 — a close below that could open the door to a deeper pullback towards $4,250. Personally, I believe this is just a “breather” in Ethereum’s broader bullish trend. What about you — do you think ETH will soon reclaim $4,500, or will it need one more dip before rallying higher again?
Long
by EmmaChartist
12
Trading Psychology Bias Lesson: BTCUSD 1D ATR Position SizeSummary Bias shifts judgment under stress and often decides outcomes before the order ticket. This idea converts trading psychology into rules you can apply on BTCUSD now. It uses fixed ATR stops, pre defined entries and exits, a written disconfirming note before any order, and decision grades based on rule adherence. The goal is tighter drawdowns and consistent execution across regimes. Live context Price 123,102 SMA 50 114,314 EMA 200 106,289 ATR 14 daily 2,882.52 which is 2.34% of price Distance to SMA 50 is 8,788 which is 7.14% Distance to EMA 200 is 16,813 which is 13.66% 2 x ATR equals 5,765.04 which is 4.68% Why psychology decides the trade before entry Real trading includes noise, limited attention, and emotion. The result is bias, a stable tendency that pulls choices away from the written rule. Bias creeps into 4 moments: setup definition, entry trigger, position size, exit and review. The fix is structure. Use 5 blocks: a 1 sentence setup, entry and stop and trail defined with ATR, a written disconfirming note, a higher timeframe check, and a post trade grade by rule adherence rather than outcome. Theory. Core biases you must neutralize Loss aversion . Loss pain exceeds gain pleasure and leads to widening stops or cutting winners early. Fix . Initial stop equals 2 x ATR. Trail equals 1 x ATR or a close through a moving reference. Never widen stops. Confirmation bias . You search for evidence that agrees with your idea. Fix . Write 1 disconfirming fact before any order. Check the next higher timeframe. If it disagrees, cut size by 50% or skip. Anchoring . You fixate on entry or a round level. Fix . Define exits on structure with ATR or a moving average close. Name the anchor in notes to reduce its pull. Recency and availability . You overweight the last 1 to 3 candles. Fix . Use a 20 bar context rule and a weekly system review. Overconfidence . After a win trade count and size increase without any change in edge. Fix . Cool down 2 minutes after every exit and halve next size after a large winner. Herd and gambler’s fallacy . Late entries on wide candles and belief that streaks must continue or must reverse. Fix . Only take trades with projected reward to risk at least 2 to 1 at the planned stop and avoid high impact events. Hindsight and outcome bias . You judge by result and rewrite rules after 1 loss. Fix . Save entry and exit screenshots and grade by rule adherence. Status quo and endowment . You sit in positions you already own while better setups exist. Fix . Monthly retest of every holding against current rules. Three guardrail rules for BTCUSD Stop discipline. Initial stop equals 2 x ATR. Trail winners by 1 x ATR or by a daily close through SMA 50. Do not widen stops. Decision hygiene. Before every order write 1 disconfirming fact and check the next higher timeframe. If the higher timeframe disagrees, cut size by 50% or skip. Quality floor. Projected reward to risk is at least 2 to 1 at the initial stop distance. BTCUSD 1D continuation plan with exact math This plan assumes a breakout continuation and uses your live ATR 14. All digits are based on ATR 2,882.52 and a price above SMA 50 and EMA 200. Setup in 1 sentence . Trend continuation long on a daily close above the recent swing with SMA 50 rising and 20 bar context bullish. Entry trigger . Close above 124,200 confirms continuation. Initial risk . 2 x ATR equals 5,765.04. Stop equals entry minus 5,765.04. For 124,200 the stop is 118,434.96. Targets . 1R target equals entry plus 5,765.04 which is 129,965.04. 2R target equals entry plus 11,530.08 which is 135,730.08. Sizing example . Equity 20,000. Risk per trade 1% equals 200. Position size equals risk divided by stop distance which is 200 ÷ 5,765.04 equals 0.0347 BTC. Notional at 124,200 is about 4,308. Management . Trail by 1 x ATR which is 2,882.52. Move the stop only with the trail. Ignore the first single red candle to reduce recency effects. Exit logic . Exit on a daily close below the 1 x ATR trail or use a time stop after 12 bars if 2R is not reached. Journal cue . Before entry write 1 disconfirming fact. After exit save 2 screenshots and grade by rule adherence. Why each step neutralizes bias in real time Loss aversion is capped because the stop distance is fixed by ATR and never widened. The trail is mechanical. Confirmation is checked by the written disconfirming fact and the higher timeframe review that can force a skip or a 50% position cut. Anchoring is reduced because exits reference ATR and structure instead of entry or round numbers. Recency is filtered by the 20 bar rule and by a weekly system review that ignores single outcomes. Overconfidence is constrained by a 2 minute cool down and 50% next size after a large winner. Mean reversion companion inside an uptrend Use this only while SMA 50 and EMA 200 slope up and price trades above both averages. Context . Pullback forms inside the 20 bar range toward short term support while SMA 50 rises above EMA 200. Entry . Bullish rejection from a prior swing zone or a daily close back above the intraday pivot after a 2 to 3 day pause. Risk . Initial stop equals 1.5 x ATR which is 4,323.78. Sizing . Risk per trade 1%. Position size equals risk divided by 4,323.78. With equity 20,000 and risk 200 the size equals 0.0463 BTC. Exit . First scale at 1.5 R. Stop to break even only after a daily close above SMA 50. Final exit at 2 R or on a daily close back into the pullback range. Bias note . Write 1 anchor you feel and 1 disconfirming fact that would cancel the setup. Decision checklist to paste into chart notes Setup in 1 sentence written before entry Entry level, initial stop, trail method defined 1 disconfirming fact written and verified Higher timeframe checked and size adjusted if needed Projected reward to risk is at least 2 to 1 Screenshots saved at entry and exit Decision grade recorded by rule adherence Position size rule you can audit weekly Account equity E. Risk per trade equals 1% of E by default. Stop distance equals the ATR multiple from the plan. Position size equals risk divided by stop distance. If required size is not tradable, skip the trade. Bias symptoms you will see on the BTCUSD chart and the fix Loss aversion . Stops drift lower while price falls. Winners are cut early. Fix . 2 x ATR hard stop and 1 x ATR trail. Confirmation . Indicators are added until they agree with your view. Fix . 1 written disconfirming note and a higher timeframe check. Anchoring . Waiting to exit when price returns to entry or to a round level. Fix . Structure based exits and naming the anchor in notes. Recency . Judgment based on the last 2 candles. Fix . 20 bar context rule and a weekly system review. Overconfidence . Trade count jumps after a win. Fix . 2 minute cool down and 50% next size after a large winner. Herd and gambler’s fallacy . Late entries on wide candles and streak thinking. Fix . 2 to 1 minimum reward to risk and a news ban during known high impact windows. Hindsight and outcome bias . Rewriting rules after 1 result. Fix . Grade by rule adherence and keep entry plus exit screenshots. Status quo and endowment . Sitting in flat positions you already own. Fix . Monthly retest of every holding against current rules. Worked example with our numbers Assuming a daily close above 124,200 triggers the continuation. Initial stop equals 2 x ATR which is 5,765.04. Stop equals 118,434.96. 1R target equals 129,965.04. 2R target equals 135,730.08. Equity equals 20,000. Risk equals 200. Position size equals 0.0347 BTC. As price advances you trail by 1 x ATR which is 2,882.52 and you move the stop only when the trail shifts. If the trail is hit you exit. If 12 bars pass without the 2R target you exit on time and log the decision. You do not widen the stop. You do not add size after a win. You grade the decision by rule adherence. If momentum stalls If a daily close rotates down toward 121,000 to 121,500 and momentum weakens, shift to neutral. Wait for a fresh setup that passes the 2 to 1 test at the planned stop. Do not react to a single candle. The plan lives on the daily chart. Comparator and scorecard Use simple Buy and Hold on BTCUSD as the baseline. Score the plan by Return divided by Drawdown, Max Drawdown, and percent of trades executed exactly as written. A smaller drawdown with steady execution beats a higher raw return with poor adherence. Your best forward indicator is the discipline metric you log each week. Education and analytics only. Not investment advice. Test any rule with historical data before risking capital.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by exlux
BTC/USDT — Low Time Frame Recovered, Eyes on Volume 08-10-2025Bitcoin has reclaimed its low time frame level near $121.6K, signaling renewed short-term strength. Price is now pushing upward toward the +Volume Zone, an area where increased buying activity could trigger a breakout continuation. 📈 Low Time Frame Reclaimed: BTC has stabilized above the local structure, confirming short-term bullish momentum. 🔊 Volume Zone Target: The next resistance sits around $123K, where increased trading activity could accelerate a move higher. 🟢 Main Trend Active: The primary uptrend remains strong as long as BTC holds above the $113K main trend support. Technical Levels: 🟢 Main Trend Support: $113K 🟡 Low Time Frame Support: $121.6K 🔊 Volume Zone Resistance: $123K 🎯 Next Target: $125–$126K Outlook: Bitcoin is showing healthy recovery momentum, reclaiming short-term structure and heading into the Volume Zone. If it sustains above $121.6K and breaks $123K with volume confirmation, a continuation toward $125K+ becomes likely. 📊 Bias: Bullish continuation 📈 Focus: Volume reaction at $123K
Long
by SatochiTrader