RIP Bitcoin Sell to 45K ?Bitcoin broke the weekly channel last week. I expect a decline to 45K
Stop loss: 97600
Bitcoinmarkets
$3350 would indicate short-term strengthGold Price Analysis – Technical Outlook
Gold is currently approaching a critical resistance level around 3350. If the price manages to break and close above this level on the 15-minute chart, it could signal the continuation of the bullish trend. A confirmed 15-minute candle close above 3350 would indicate short-term strength and increased buying pressure.
To strengthen this bullish bias, we are also watching for a Break of Structure (BOS) on the 1-hour timeframe. A BOS would suggest a shift in market structure, potentially transitioning from a consolidation or retracement phase into a new impulsive leg to the upside.
If both conditions – the 15M candle close above 3350 and a 1H BOS – are met, the next immediate target would be 3370. Depending on how the price action unfolds beyond that point, and supported by additional confirmations such as volume, momentum indicators, or price patterns, there could be further upside potential.
As always, ensure you apply risk management and conduct your own thorough analysis before making any trading decisions.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please do your own research (DYOR).
BTC/USDT Analysis: Breaking the All-Time High
Hello everyone! This is the trader-analyst from CryptoRobotics, and here is your daily update.
Yesterday, Bitcoin broke its all-time high. There were no strong sell-offs either at or above the level. During the move, a volume zone was formed, and we managed to consolidate above it. Since there is no visible resistance ahead, trading should currently be approached from the long side — at least until a strong opposing force appears on the chart.
Buy Zones:
• $109,200–$106,500 (volume zone)
• $103,200–$102,000 (absorption of market selling)
• Around $100,000 (pushing volumes)
• $98,000–$97,200 (local support)
• $93,000 level
• $91,500–$90,000 (strong buying imbalance)
• $88,100–$87,000 (absorption of market selling)
• $85,500–$84,000 (accumulated volumes)
• $82,700–$81,400 (volume zone)
• $74,800 level
• $69,000–$60,600 (accumulated volumes)
This publication is not financial advice.
BTC Hits New All-Time High: Is a $128K Blow-Off Top Next?Bitcoin's Meteoric Ascent: New All-Time Highs Fuel $128K "Blow-Off Top" Predictions Amidst Unprecedented Adoption
The digital gold rush of the 21st century is reaching a fever pitch. Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneering cryptocurrency, has not only shattered previous records but is now tantalizingly close to new, stratospheric all-time highs, with analysts eyeing a potential "blow-off top" as high as $128,000. This electrifying surge, which saw BTC climb to within 1.5% of new peaks as bullish sentiment decisively overcame final resistance, is underpinned by a confluence of factors: soaring institutional and retail adoption, particularly in the United States, booming ETF inflows, growing political and regulatory support, and a shifting macroeconomic landscape that increasingly favors non-traditional assets. As of May 21, 2025, Bitcoin has firmly established itself above the $109,000 mark, a testament to its resilience and burgeoning mainstream acceptance.
The recent price action has been nothing short of spectacular. Bitcoin bulls have been relentlessly "grilling sellers," pushing the price to historic milestones. On May 21, 2025, Bitcoin etched a new all-time high (ATH) above $109,000, a landmark achievement that notably placed 100% of BTC holders into profit. This surge saw Bitcoin's market capitalization briefly surpass that of e-commerce giant Amazon, a symbolic victory highlighting its growing financial clout. Specific figures around this period include a climb to a record $109,302, and another peak at a historic $109,500, demonstrating the intense buying pressure and bullish conviction in the market. Analysts are now recalibrating their upside targets, with many calling for $116,000 as the next significant milestone on the path to even loftier valuations.
This bullish momentum isn't occurring in a vacuum. It's the culmination of years of development, increasing understanding, and a series of pivotal events that have collectively propelled Bitcoin into the financial limelight.
The American Bitcoin Boom: Adoption Surpasses Gold, Institutions Dive In
One of the most compelling narratives driving Bitcoin's current rally is its explosive growth in the United States. A staggering 50 million Americans now own Bitcoin, a figure that notably surpasses the 37 million gold holders in the country. This demographic shift signifies a profound change in investment preferences, particularly among younger generations who are increasingly comfortable with digital assets. Bitcoin is no longer a niche interest for tech enthusiasts; it's becoming a recognized component of diversified investment portfolios across a broad swathe of the American population.
The institutional embrace within the US is equally, if not more, impactful. US firms now hold an astonishing 94.8% of the Bitcoin reserves held by publicly traded companies globally. This concentration underscores the confidence American corporations have in Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, a hedge against inflation, and a potential source of significant returns. Furthermore, the United States is solidifying its position as the global epicenter of the Bitcoin industry, with 40% of all Bitcoin companies headquartered domestically. This robust ecosystem of miners, exchanges, wallet providers, and ancillary service companies fosters innovation and provides a strong foundation for continued growth.
The advent and subsequent success of Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been a game-changer. These regulated financial products have opened the floodgates for a new wave of capital, allowing retail and institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through traditional brokerage accounts without the complexities of direct ownership and custody. The "booming ETF inflows" are a direct contributor to the recent price surge, creating sustained buying pressure and signaling widespread market acceptance.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds and Regulatory Optimism
Beyond direct adoption, broader economic and political factors are playing a crucial role. The recent new all-time high of $109,000 was notably set just nine days after the US and China closed a 90-day trade agreement. This resolution eased economic uncertainty and market jitters that had previously weighed on global markets. In such an environment, assets perceived as hedges against traditional market volatility or fiat currency devaluation, like Bitcoin and gold, often thrive. Indeed, concurrent with Bitcoin's rise, concerns such as Japan's debt woes have contributed to gold surpassing the $3,300 mark, indicating a broader flight to alternative stores of value.
Furthermore, there's growing optimism around US regulations concerning cryptocurrencies. While the regulatory landscape is still evolving, recent pronouncements and actions suggest a move towards greater clarity and a more accommodative stance, rather than outright prohibition. This "growing political support" is crucial for long-term institutional commitment, as regulatory uncertainty has historically been a significant barrier to entry for larger, more conservative investors. The fact that Bitcoin climbed to a record of $109,302, breaching a previous high set around the time of a major political event like a presidential inauguration (specifically referenced as Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20 in a historical context for a previous ATH), often correlates with market sentiment interpreting political or regulatory shifts as favorable.
The "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" (BSR): A Paradigm Shift for National Economies?
An intriguing, albeit more speculative, concept gaining traction is the idea of a "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" (BSR). While not yet a formal policy in any major nation, the discussion itself highlights Bitcoin's evolving perception from a purely speculative asset to one with potential strategic geopolitical and economic importance.
A BSR would involve a nation-state, such as the United States, acquiring and holding Bitcoin as part of its national reserves, much like it currently holds gold or foreign currencies. The rationale behind such a move could be multifaceted:
1. Hedging Against Fiat Devaluation: As central banks globally continue to engage in monetary expansion, concerns about the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies persist. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, offers a potential hedge against this inflation.
2. Participating in a New Financial System: If Bitcoin continues its trajectory towards becoming a globally recognized store of value or even a medium of exchange for certain international transactions, holding it in reserve would position a nation to participate actively in this emerging financial infrastructure.
3. Technological Leadership: For a country like the US, which already leads in Bitcoin company headquarters and corporate holdings, establishing a BSR could further cement its leadership in the digital asset space, attracting talent and capital.
4. Economic Resilience: In a future where digital currencies play a more significant role, a BSR could offer a degree of economic resilience and autonomy, reducing reliance on traditional financial systems or the currencies of other nations.
The implications of a major economic power like the US even seriously considering, let alone implementing, a BSR would be monumental for Bitcoin's legitimacy and price. It would signal ultimate institutional acceptance and could trigger a wave of similar considerations by other nations, creating immense demand for a limited supply of BTC. While the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Explained and What BSR Means for the US Economy" remains a topic of forward-looking discussion, its emergence in financial discourse is a testament to how far Bitcoin has come.
The Path to $128K: Understanding the "Blow-Off Top"
With Bitcoin having decisively broken past $109,000 and upside targets of $116,000 now in common parlance, the ultimate bull-case scenario being discussed is a "blow-off top" potentially reaching $128,000 or even higher.
A "blow-off top" is a chart pattern that signifies a steep and rapid price increase in an asset, often on high volume, followed by an equally sharp reversal. It typically occurs at the end of a prolonged bull market or a parabolic advance. The psychology behind it involves:
1. Euphoria and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out): As prices accelerate, media attention intensifies, and stories of quick riches abound. This draws in a flood of retail investors who don't want to miss out on the gains.
2. Exhaustion of Buyers: The parabolic rise eventually becomes unsustainable. The last wave of enthusiastic buyers enters at or near the peak.
3. Smart Money Distribution: Experienced traders and institutions, who may have accumulated positions much lower, begin to sell into this heightened demand, taking profits.
4. Sharp Reversal: Once buying pressure is exhausted and selling pressure mounts, the price can fall dramatically as latecomers panic-sell and stop-losses are triggered.
Predicting the exact peak of a blow-off top is notoriously difficult. However, analysts use a combination of technical analysis (chart patterns, momentum indicators, Fibonacci extensions), on-chain data (network activity, holder behavior), and market sentiment to identify potential price targets and warning signs. The $128,000 figure is likely derived from such analyses, representing a significant psychological level or a projection based on previous market cycle behavior.
Navigating the Bull Market: Indicators for Identifying a Cycle Top
While the current sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, savvy Bitcoin traders and investors are always mindful of market cycles and the potential for corrections or trend reversals. The question, "Is Bitcoin price close to a cycle top?" is one that prudent market participants constantly evaluate. Several indicators can help traders gauge whether a market might be overheating:
1. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): This trend-following momentum indicator can show bearish divergences, where the price makes new highs, but the MACD fails to do so, signaling weakening momentum.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): An RSI reading above 70 is generally considered overbought, and readings above 80 or 90 in a strong bull market can signal extreme conditions, though Bitcoin can remain overbought for extended periods. Bearish divergences on the RSI are also key.
3. On-Chain Metrics (e.g., MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, SOPR):
o MVRV Z-Score (Market Value to Realized Value): Compares Bitcoin's market cap to its realized cap (the price at which each coin last moved). High Z-scores indicate the market cap is significantly higher than the average cost basis, suggesting the asset is overvalued and potentially near a top.
o Puell Multiple: Looks at the supply side of Bitcoin's economy – miners and their revenue. It divides the daily issuance value of bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value. High values suggest miner profitability is high compared to historical norms, which has sometimes coincided with market tops.
o Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR): This indicates if holders are, on average, selling in profit or loss. Values significantly above 1 suggest holders are realizing substantial profits, which can increase sell pressure. A sustained drop below 1 after a peak can signal a shift in trend.
4. Logarithmic Growth Curves: Bitcoin's long-term price action has often respected logarithmic growth channels. When the price reaches the upper band of these channels, it has historically indicated a market top.
5. Funding Rates and Open Interest in Derivatives Markets: Extremely high positive funding rates on perpetual swaps indicate that an overwhelming number of traders are long and paying a premium to maintain those positions. This can signal excessive bullishness and a crowded trade, making the market vulnerable to a long squeeze if prices reverse. High open interest can also exacerbate volatility.
While Bitcoin is currently refusing to give up on its quest to revisit $108,000 (a level now surpassed) and beyond, concerns over a trend change, though perhaps quieter amidst the euphoria, are always present in the minds of seasoned investors. These indicators provide a more objective lens through which to assess the sustainability of the current rally.
The Road Ahead: Uncharted Territory with Immense Potential
As Bitcoin forges new all-time highs, it enters uncharted territory. The confluence of unprecedented US adoption, robust institutional investment via ETFs, a more favorable regulatory outlook, and supportive macroeconomic conditions has created a potent cocktail for price appreciation. The surpassing of Amazon's market cap, even if temporary, and the fact that 100% of BTC holders are in profit, are powerful psychological milestones that can fuel further confidence.
The predictions of a $116,000 interim target and a potential $128,000 blow-off top are no longer fringe theories but are being seriously discussed by mainstream analysts. The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is gaining more traction than ever, especially as traditional safe havens like gold also see increased interest amidst global economic uncertainties like Japan's debt situation.
However, the path is unlikely to be linear. Bitcoin's inherent volatility means that sharp corrections can and will occur, even within a broader uptrend. The "concerns over a trend change" will likely grow louder as prices reach more extreme levels, and profit-taking becomes more tempting. Investors should remain vigilant, utilize the available indicators to assess market conditions, and practice sound risk management.
In conclusion, May 2025 has marked a historic period for Bitcoin. Its surge above $109,000, driven by a powerful combination of fundamental adoption and favorable market dynamics, has set the stage for potentially even more dramatic price action. Whether the ultimate peak of this cycle is $116,000, $128,000, or another figure entirely, one thing is clear: Bitcoin has firmly cemented its place in the global financial landscape, and its journey is far from over. The coming weeks and months will be closely watched by investors worldwide as the world's preeminent cryptocurrency continues to redefine the boundaries of financial assets.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, based on the provided snippets, and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is highly speculative and carries a significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
SUSHI Token: A High-Potential Setup You Shouldn’t IgnoreHello everyone!
A huge opportunity has emerged on the BINANCE:SUSHIUSDT chart. I’ll break down the technical analysis for SUSHI using both the Daily and 4H timeframes , highlighting key levels and potential trade setups.
On 1D timeframe
- Price has swept the liquidity below the November 2024 low , forming an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern , which is a strong bullish reversal signal.
- Price recently broke did the May high after that retraced approximately 24% . This pullback aligned perfectly with a retest of the neckline from the inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, reinforcing its validity as a bullish setup.
On 4H timeframe
- If price breaks above $0.775 , it would serve as a confirmation of bullish momentum, suggesting a likely move toward the liquidity zone above $1.00 .
- In my opinion, if market conditions remain bullish and Bitcoin continues its upward trend, SUSHI is likely to break above the $1.00 level with ease and potentially reach the inverse Head and Shoulders target around $1.20+ .
In conclusion, SUSHI is currently showing strong bullish signals, and if the broader market gives altcoins room to run, this token has the potential to rally aggressively.
Note: SUSHI is a low-cap token with high volatility, so exercise proper risk management when trading or investing.
ETHUSDT pair has formed a set of Equal Highs!Currently, the ETHUSDT pair has formed a set of Equal Highs (EQ Highs) on the chart, indicating the presence of potential liquidity resting above that level. At the same time, there’s some price structure visible on the lower side, suggesting that the market may have created liquidity pools both above and below the current price range. This kind of setup often precedes a significant move.
Recently, the market executed what appears to be a 'Turtle Soup' pattern — a common liquidity grab strategy in which price breaks below a key support or above resistance to trap breakout traders, only to quickly reverse and pump in the opposite direction. Following this pattern, ETHUSDT saw a sharp upward movement, indicating that smart money may have manipulated liquidity to fuel this breakout.
Now , patience is essential. The market has created a visible trendline, and typically, such trendlines attract retail traders who treat them as dynamic support or resistance. However, what often happens is that liquidity builds up around these trendlines, and institutional players later push the price through them to trigger stop-losses or induce panic. It’s likely the market will take out (or 'kill') the liquidity lying along that trendline.
After that liquidity sweep, we’re watching for price to move into a marked Fair Value Gap (FVG) — an imbalance left by a strong move where price didn’t fully fill in. Once the price taps into that FVG, we need to wait for additional confirmation. Ideally, we’d like to see a Market Structure Shift (MSS) or a Change of Character (CHoCH), both of which are strong indicators that the trend may be reversing or forming.
Only after those confirmations should we start considering entering a long position. We can further validate the setup using refined models such as the Unicorn Model, or other entry confirmations like a refined FVG entry, a bullish order block (OB), or breaker block. The goal is to enter the trade when there is a high-probability confluence of signals, not just based on a single indicator.
Once a solid entry setup is confirmed, our targets can be the Equal Highs formed earlier, as they represent resting liquidity which price often seeks. However, it’s crucial not to blindly follow the setup. Observe how the market reacts at each critical level, manage risk properly, and most importantly DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before making any trading decision.
4H FVG level is indicating a strong bullish sentiment.Market Analysis – Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold is currently trading within a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the 4-hour timeframe, accompanied by notable volume activity. Just below this zone lies a weekly FVG, and multiple other FVG and Breaker Block (BPR) formations have emerged in the same region. The price action around the 4H FVG level is indicating a strong bullish sentiment.
However, on the 1-hour chart, the market has recently formed a bearish FVG in the 3214–3220 range. If the price breaks above this level with strength, the bullish momentum could potentially drive the market toward the following upside targets: 3233, 3240, 3250, and 3260.
Let’s monitor closely and remember: Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
BITCOIN Daily Bullish / Bearish days ahaed with Big push after
Even though I have mentioned that we maybe in for some RED days this week, this chart shows how, ultimately, we are in a Bullish momentum still.
The CUP pattern that we have printed ( adjusted since I last posted this) , Goes from ATH line back to the ATH line.
We also see how there is this APEX that PA has fallen into that has its peak at the end of this month.
PA always reacts before the APEX
But before this, we may range across or drop down onto the CUP. This has Strong support and could possibly propel PA above thaT ATH line.
We do need to also understand, there is a 618 Fib circle at this intersection and that may not be easy to break through.
But PA has often searched out intersections of resistance to break through and so I am looking to this as the way forward.
The 2.618 Fib Ext on this chart may also offer support at around 98K if we loose support higher.
The RSI is already dropping from OverBought and so will probably continue to do so till we reach Neutral / Over Sold again.
And the Daily MACD, is also turning Bearish, But as mentioned before, this is possibly repeating what happened in Nv 2024
See the Arrow on the left...The Histogram is the one to take note of. Two Green peaks and then a red Dip
We have just begun the Red bit after the two Green peaks.
The scale is larger here and so we may have to wait longer till we return out of the green.
In 10 dayts, we will be near end of month
So, for me, this week will be possibly Red but towards the end of the month, things will begin to move higher.
All depends on PA following expected patterns and that does not always happen
We can only look, plan and react.
Chinlink market on 19/May/2025Chainlink is playing at Order Block zone and after retest Order Block zone. It will visit (17$ - 18$). When it break this level, it will claim to (19$ -20$) to r claim it bull trend.
GOLD Has Shown A Significant Bullish Move!!Gold Market Analysis
Over the past week, gold has shown a significant bullish move by touching its weekly bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) and closing a candle above it. This price action serves as a strong indication that the market is currently exhibiting bullish momentum. However, it is important to note that the sustainability of this bullish trend will be confirmed only through future market developments and price behavior.
As of now, our analysis suggests that gold, after revisiting and respecting the weekly bullish FVG, is trending upward. Looking ahead, we anticipate a minor retracement in the short term. This pullback could provide a healthy opportunity for the market to gather momentum before making another move upward. Ideally, we expect the price to retrace slightly and re-enter the highlighted yellow zone. Within this zone, we will be watching for a Market Structure Shift (MSS), which would act as our confirmation signal to consider entering a long position.
Once confirmation is received through MSS or similar price action cues, our strategy would be to target the liquidity zones situated above the current price level. It is also worth mentioning that the market has already cleared liquidity on the sell-side, which further strengthens the bullish case. Based on current technical indications and liquidity structure, there is a high probability that gold could reach as high as $3,250 in the upcoming sessions.
That said, market conditions can evolve rapidly, and it is essential to monitor price action closely. Traders and investors are strongly advised to conduct their own research (DYOR) and await clear confirmations before making any trading decisions. Staying vigilant and informed will be key to capitalizing on potential bullish movements in the gold market.
Bitcoin Stalls, But Chart Watchers Eye $300,000 Peak: Here's Whe
Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, has experienced a period of consolidation, leaving investors and analysts alike pondering its next move. While the price has stalled below the $105,000 mark, a confluence of factors, including popular predictive models and bullish sentiment from prominent crypto analysts, suggests that a significant surge could be on the horizon. The potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs, possibly soaring to between $275,000 and $300,000 by October of this year, is fueling excitement and speculation within the crypto community.
This article delves into the factors driving the bullish outlook for Bitcoin, examining the predictive models, analyst forecasts, and underlying fundamentals that support the possibility of a substantial price increase. We will explore the potential catalysts that could propel Bitcoin to new heights and analyze the technical indicators that chart watchers are monitoring closely.
Predictive Models Point to a Massive Surge
One of the primary drivers of the bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin is the existence of popular predictive models that suggest a massive price surge in the coming months. These models, often based on historical data, supply and demand dynamics, and other relevant factors, attempt to forecast the future price of Bitcoin with varying degrees of accuracy.
One such model, which has gained considerable attention in the crypto community, points to a potential surge to between $275,000 and $300,000 by October of this year. While the specifics of this model are not explicitly detailed in the prompt, it is likely based on factors such as Bitcoin's scarcity, its increasing adoption as a store of value, and the potential for institutional investment to drive demand.
It is important to note that predictive models are not foolproof and should not be taken as definitive guarantees of future price movements. However, they can provide valuable insights into potential scenarios and help investors make informed decisions.
Analyst Forecasts: $159,000 This Cycle
In addition to predictive models, bullish forecasts from prominent crypto analysts are also contributing to the optimistic outlook for Bitcoin. One analyst, in particular, has predicted that Bitcoin's price could reach $159,000 this cycle.
While the specific methodology used by this analyst is not detailed in the prompt, it is likely based on a combination of technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and market sentiment. Technical analysis involves studying price charts and other technical indicators to identify potential trends and patterns. Fundamental analysis involves evaluating the underlying value of Bitcoin based on factors such as its adoption rate, network security, and regulatory environment. Market sentiment involves gauging the overall mood and expectations of investors in the crypto market.
The analyst's forecast of $159,000 this cycle suggests a belief that Bitcoin is currently undervalued and that its price will eventually catch up to its intrinsic value.
Bitcoin IS The Opt Out
The phrase "Bitcoin IS The Opt Out" encapsulates a growing sentiment within the crypto community that Bitcoin represents a viable alternative to traditional financial systems. This sentiment is based on the belief that Bitcoin offers several advantages over traditional currencies and financial institutions:
• Decentralization: Bitcoin is not controlled by any single entity, such as a government or central bank. This decentralization makes it resistant to censorship and manipulation.
• Scarcity: Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million coins, which makes it a scarce asset. This scarcity is expected to drive its price higher over time as demand increases.
• Transparency: All Bitcoin transactions are recorded on a public ledger called the blockchain. This transparency makes it difficult to engage in illicit activities using Bitcoin.
• Security: The Bitcoin network is secured by cryptography, making it difficult to hack or tamper with.
The belief that Bitcoin offers a viable "opt out" from traditional financial systems is driving increased adoption and investment in the cryptocurrency.
BTC Price to $116K Next? 'Early Week' All-Time High
The prospect of Bitcoin reaching $116,000 in the near future, potentially even achieving an all-time high early in the week, is further fueling bullish sentiment. This forecast, attributed to a Bitcoin trader, suggests that the cryptocurrency is poised to break out of its current consolidation phase and enter a new period of price discovery.
The trader's forecast is likely based on technical analysis, identifying potential breakout patterns and momentum indicators that suggest an imminent surge in price. The expectation of an "early week" all-time high suggests a belief that the market is primed for a rapid and decisive move to the upside.
Leaving the Tight Range Behind
The statement that "Bitcoin is in line to leave its tight range behind in the coming days" suggests that the period of consolidation is nearing its end. A tight trading range typically indicates a period of indecision in the market, where buyers and sellers are evenly matched. However, such periods often precede significant price movements, as pent-up energy is released in one direction or another.
The expectation that Bitcoin will leave its tight range behind suggests a belief that the balance of power is shifting in favor of buyers, setting the stage for a potential breakout to the upside.
Retaking All-Time Highs and Pushing into Price Discovery
The ultimate goal for Bitcoin bulls is to see the cryptocurrency retake its all-time highs and push into price discovery. Price discovery refers to the process of establishing a new price level for an asset when it breaks out of its previous range.
When Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, it enters a period of price discovery, where there are no historical resistance levels to impede its upward movement. This can lead to rapid and substantial price increases, as buyers are willing to pay higher and higher prices to acquire the asset.
Potential Catalysts for a Bitcoin Surge
Several potential catalysts could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs and trigger a period of price discovery:
• Increased Institutional Investment: As more and more institutional investors, such as hedge funds, pension funds, and corporations, allocate capital to Bitcoin, demand for the cryptocurrency is likely to increase, driving its price higher.
• Regulatory Clarity: Greater regulatory clarity surrounding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could remove a major source of uncertainty and encourage more investors to enter the market.
• Mainstream Adoption: As Bitcoin becomes more widely accepted as a form of payment and a store of value, its adoption rate is likely to increase, driving demand and price appreciation.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Macroeconomic factors, such as inflation, currency devaluation, and geopolitical instability, could drive investors to seek refuge in Bitcoin as a safe haven asset.
Technical Indicators to Watch
Chart watchers are closely monitoring several technical indicators to gauge the potential for a Bitcoin surge:
• Breakout Patterns: Identifying potential breakout patterns, such as ascending triangles, cup and handle formations, and flag patterns, can provide clues about when Bitcoin is likely to break out of its current range.
• Volume: Monitoring trading volume can help to confirm the validity of a breakout. A breakout accompanied by high volume is generally considered more reliable than a breakout accompanied by low volume.
• Momentum Indicators: Momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), can help to gauge the strength of a trend and identify potential overbought or oversold conditions.
• Support and Resistance Levels: Identifying key support and resistance levels can help to anticipate potential price movements and set appropriate entry and exit points.
Conclusion: Awaiting the Next Chapter in Bitcoin's Story
Bitcoin's recent period of consolidation has left investors and analysts eager to see what the future holds. While the price has stalled below $105,000, a confluence of factors, including predictive models, analyst forecasts, and bullish market sentiment, suggests that a significant surge could be on the horizon.
The potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs, possibly soaring to between $275,000 and $300,000 by October of this year, is fueling excitement and speculation within the crypto community. Whether Bitcoin achieves these lofty targets remains to be seen, but the stage is set for what could be another exciting chapter in the cryptocurrency's story. As always, investors should conduct their own research, assess their risk tolerance, and make informed decisions before investing in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency. The journey ahead promises to be volatile, but the potential rewards could be substantial for those who are willing to navigate the risks.
BCH/USDT Bullish Heist: Crack the Vault & Grab the Loot!🔥 **BCH/USDT Bullish Heist Plan** 🔥
Hey Profit Pirates & Chart Chasers! 🤑 Ready to pull off a slick move on the Bitcoin Cash vs. Tether (BCH/USDT) crypto market? 📈 This *Thief Trading Style* blends sharp technicals with market vibes to hunt a bullish breakout. Stick to this plan, ride the surge, and slip out before the Red Zone danger hits. Let’s stack those gains as a crew! 💪🎯
📊 Heist Blueprint: BCH/USDT
- Market: BCH/USDT (Crypto) 🌐
- Bias: Bullish Breakout 🌟
- Timeframe: 1D (Swing Trade) ⏰
Entry Points 📈
- **Breakout Entry (Entry 1)**: "Crack the vault! Spot the MA breakout at 430.0 and jump in—bullish riches are calling!"
*Pro Move*: Set buy stop orders above the Moving Average or buy limit orders at the latest 15/30-min swing low/high for pullback entries. 📣 Add a chart alert to snag the breakout!
- **Pullback Entry (Entry 2)**: "The job’s on! Wait for the MA pullback in the Market Makers Trap/Heist Zone at 350.0, then strike—guts win big!" 📍
*Trader Hack*: Set a TradingView alert for the 430.0 breakout to stay one step ahead! 🔔
Stop Loss 🛑
- **Breakout Traders**: Once the breakout confirms, place Stop Loss below the recent 1D swing low at (Entry 1) 380.0 & (Entry 2) 310.0 to shield against reversals. ⚠️
- **Pullback Traders**: Customize Stop Loss to your risk tolerance (e.g., 1-2% of account). Tweak based on lot size and multiple orders. 📏
- **Risk Warning**: This heist’s high-octane! Keep position sizing tight to protect your stash. 🔥
Target 🎯
- Aim for 500.0, close to the Red Zone (overbought territory ripe for consolidation or reversal). 🏴☠️
- **Exit Play**: Cash out early if bearish clues (e.g., high volume, reversal candles) pop up near 500.0. 💸
Scalpers 👀
- Focus on Long-side scalps with tight trailing stops. Team up with swing traders for the full heist or grab quick profits if your funds allow. 💰
📡 Why This Trade’s Got Juice (May 17, 2025)
BCH/USDT is primed for action with a neutral trend and bullish sparks, fueled by:
- **Technicals**: A breakout above the 50-day MA (not 108000, correcting to ~430.0), paired with higher lows on the 1D chart, screams momentum. 📊
- **Sentiment Analysis (May 17, 2025)**: Social media buzz on platforms like X shows 68% positive sentiment for BCH, with traders hyping altcoin season. Fear & Greed Index at 72 (Greed), signaling bullish vibes but caution near overbought levels. 😎
- **Fundamentals**: The latest COT report (May 16, 2025) from CFTC shows institutional long positions in crypto futures up 12% WoW, hinting at big-player confidence. 📰
- **Seasonal Edge**: Q2 historically favors Bitcoin and altcoins, aligning with our setup. 📅
- **Market Flow**: USD softness (DXY down 0.8% this week) and altcoin strength boost BCH’s upside. 🌎
⚠️ Risk Management: Lock Your Loot
- **News Alert**: Dodge new trades during high-impact events (e.g., CPI, FOMC) to sidestep volatility traps. 🗞️
- **Trailing Stops**: Activate trailing Stop Loss as price nears 500.0 to secure profits. 🔒
- **Position Sizing**: Cap risk at 1-2% per trade for a smooth heist. 🚨
💥 Ignite the Heist! 💥
Join the *Thief Trading Style* squad—like, comment, and follow for more electrifying trade setups! 🚀 Your support powers our market raids, paving the way for precise wins. Let’s dominate BCH/USDT together! 🤝🏆🎉
**Stay Locked In**: Another heist plan’s brewing. Keep your charts ready, traders! 🐱👤😎
---
🔥 **Real-Time Data (May 17, 2025, UTC+1)** 🔥
- **BCH/USDT Price**: ~425.0 (based on aggregated exchange data).
- **COT Report (May 16, 2025)**: Institutional long positions in crypto futures up 12% WoW, per CFTC.
- **Sentiment**: 68% positive, Fear & Greed Index at 72 (Greed).
- **USD Index (DXY)**: Down 0.8% WoW, supporting altcoin strength.
Momentum Fades: Is Bitcoin Poised for a Pullback to Rebalance?Given the recent easing of US-China tariff tensions 🇺🇸🇨🇳, we’re observing a notable rotation of capital into equities 📈. This shift is lending strength to the US dollar 💵, which in turn has exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price action. After a strong momentum-driven rally 🚀, Bitcoin is now showing early signs of weakness, suggesting a potential consolidation or a measured pullback.
With equity markets—particularly tech stocks—appearing overextended 🏦, a retracement seems likely. Since Bitcoin remains closely correlated with the tech sector, a synchronized pullback across both asset classes is a plausible scenario. I’m closely monitoring for a counter-trend opportunity, specifically eyeing a short entry should we see a decisive break in market structure 🔍.
It’s important to note that this setup is highly dependent on price action confirming the thesis as outlined in the accompanying video. If the anticipated conditions do not materialize, this trade idea will be promptly invalidated. ⚠️
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies and equities involves significant risk. Please conduct your own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions. 📊
what is underperforming? Personally, I think small caps are where we should be looking for opportunities.
We see the people telling you 5-15% easy silver will pump before maybe something happens. Gold is in the same spot IMO. they want you to buy the sucker rally before the dump(As they build short positions).
I will be looking to buy some silver in a year or two when the divergencies look correct to me.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!!
Market Overview
WHAT HAPPENED?
Last week, we had a true breakdown of the local maximum for bitcoin. We considered the probability of this scenario developing in our daily analysis on TradingView.
The buyer resumed control over the delta, although we had previously noted strong sell pressure within the $98,000–$93,000 range several times, which could trigger a deep correction.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT?
Now the price has reached the target of $105,000, the priority remains for the longs. If BTC gains a foothold above this mark, the volume zone of $104,000–$103,000 may become a key support zone.
Sell Zones:
$107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies).
Buy Zones:
$104,000–$103,000 (high-volume area),
~$100,000 (absorbing/breakthrough volume),
$98,000–$97,200 (local support),
$93,000 level,
$91,500–$90,000 (strong buying imbalance),
$88,100–$87,000 (absorption of market selling),
$85,500–$84,000 (accumulated volume),
$82,700–$81,400 (volume zone),
$74,800 level,
$69,000–$60,600 (accumulated volume).
IMPORTANT DATES
Macroeconomic events to watch out for:
• Tuesday, May 13, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the basic US consumer price index for April, as well as in comparison with April 2024;
• Wednesday, May 14, 06:00 (UTC) — German Consumer Price Index for April is published;
• Thursday, May 15, 06:00 (UTC) — publication of UK GDP for March, for the first quarter of 2025, as well as in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2024;
• Thursday, May 15, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the basic US retail sales index for April, the number of initial applications for US unemployment benefits, the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the US producer price index, the volume of retail sales in the USA for April and May;
• Thursday, May 15, 12:40 (UTC) — Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell;
• Thursday, May 15, 23:50 (UTC) — Japan's GDP for the first quarter of 2025 is published.
*This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience.
#analytics
MSTR - Strategy B fractalsVery interesting patters in MSTR stock when using Fibo levels.
By taking the high of 2021 as the reference (fibo = 1) and projecting it to the current cycle we can see that:
2024 mid year top was 1.618 level and mid year low was 0.786 level.
2024 blow off top was 4.236 level.
Now if we take the 2024 consolidation range and apply fibo to the top and lows of that range, we get also the blow off top at the same level: 4.236, and exactly the same price (around $500).
If we recursively apply this to current blow off top and current low in 2025, we would get a blow off top of around $1,500 if we aim at the 4.236 fibo level.
Bitcoin, MACD and what we may get over the weekend - STILL BULLS
Just a quick post to explain how Ia m looking at this weekend with Bitcoin and I will use the MACD as amajor player here.
The BTC chart above is Daily, we can see the "Cuo " pattern, we can see the Long term rising Libne of support, we can see the red 236 Fib circle we shot through and the up coming 618 fib circle, that may or may not be trouble.
And that 2.618 Fib extension I can easily see us returning to to test as support.
WHY ?
The MACD on numerous timeframes...
What is MACD ?
MACD, short for Moving Average Convergence Divergence, is a technical indicator used in the analysis of securities prices. It was developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s and is widely used to identify changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock's price
OK, So, Lets start witht he 4 hour MACD -
I zoomed out on this a little so we can get a long term look at this and you can clearly see, we are already gettign near the High side, overbought levels where, historically, MACD turns Bearish, crosses over the Signal line ( red) and heads back down to cool off befoe heading higher again.
We are not yet as high as we were in Late April but it is not far off. Safe to assume this will turn down.
So now, lets see the Daily MACD
This is the daily MACD from around Nov last year and, again, we are heading into an area where it is prudent to be Bullish and Cautious.
Remember, the moves in the 4 hour are a lot quicker than the daily.
Go back and Look at the 4 hour, see where MAY began and what the MACD did in that time
See what that was on the Daily ? It was that little Blip on the rise up , that we are now continuing.
So, we have more room to go on the Daily.
and now the Master MACD, The WEEKLY ,the one that told us we were going to range in 2024, 2025 and will once again tell us when PA has reached Exhaustion later in this run
In this chart, you can see the 2 ATH's in 2021, you can see the Bear market and the recovery and everything ever since.
And you can also see that we have Still to cross the Signal line here to really enter a bullish state.
We have SO FAR to go here.....BUT with the high price now now have with BTC, it take more to push it higher. See how high MACD had to go to push PA up this last time ? The same height as it had to go in the 2024 push and yet we went twice as high on PA.
So, th be realistic here.....We are entering a bullish push but a $1 million BTC is NOT going to happen just yet.
SO, back to this weekend, the shorter term.
the 4 hour is high, already starting to turn as I write.
I can see BTC PA ranging or, maybe, as I said, testing the 2.518 as support at around 98K.
What people also need to watch os that BTC.D I talled about yesterday to guage if ALTS will Dip back lower or not.
Some alerady seem to be Dipping
SO, Bullish Caution for the weekend....Hang in there.....We only just begun
#BITCOIN: $130,000 Is Where Price Headed To? BINANCE:BTCUSDT consolidated at 75k and reversed from the region as predicted in our previous chart. We now have strong confirmation that price will likely break through the daily bearish trendline. We can enter when it retests the identified area.
We have two major targets. Do your own research and analysis, and use this as secondary bias.
Good luck trading.
❤️
Hope you’re having a great weekend.
Team Setuspfx_
#BTCUSDT:Price Moving Well From $88,000 to $96,000,Next $128,000Bitcoin has moved well from our last idea of $88,000 to $96,000. However, a small correction is expected, which could be a good point to enter a swing trade. This could take the price to a new record high of around $128,000.
We have three targets, but each can be set based on your overview. The last three candles are not clear, so it’s best to wait for price to have a clearer indication of its next move.
We wish you the best and good luck in your trading journey. Thank you for your unwavering support! 😊
If you’d like to contribute, here are a few ways you can help us:
- Like our ideas
- Comment on our ideas
- Share our ideas
Team Setupsfx_
❤️🚀
#BTCUSDT: Will Bitcoin Make Any Correction To $90,000?Hey Everyone,
Happy Sunday
Currently, Bitcoin’s price is consolidating within a shorter timeframe, which has heightened the likelihood of it reaching the $90,000 ‘FVG’ region. However, this could be attributed to the hectic week we experienced, with numerous significant market announcements that have heightened uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. At present, there are two opportunities for Bitcoin: one is riskier, while the other is considerably safer. You can utilise this analysis as a secondary bias.
We extend our best wishes and good luck in your trading endeavours. Your unwavering support is greatly appreciated.
If you wish to contribute, here are several ways you can assist us:
- Like our ideas
- Comment on our ideas
- Share our ideas
Team Setupsfx_🚀❤️
BTC Overextended: Awaiting the Perfect Pullback for a BuYBTC/USDT Analysis – 1D Timeframe
Bitcoin is currently looking overextended on the daily chart 📈, with price action pushing directly into a well-defined key resistance level 🚧. This area has historically acted as a strong supply zone, and with momentum appearing stretched, I’m anticipating a potential retracement in the near term.
My plan is to wait for BTC to pull back towards previous support zones Around the 61.8 Fibo level🛡️. I have a clear Point of Interest (POI) marked out, where I’ll be watching for price to react. If we see a bullish Break of Structure (BOS) on the pullback—I’ll be looking for a long entry from this area 🎯.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Current daily highs (where price is overextended) 🚩
Support/POI: Previous consolidation and demand zones below, which have shown strong buying interest in the past 🏦
Trade Plan:
- No FOMO entries at resistance! ❌
- Wait for a clean retrace into my POI
- Look for bullish confirmation (BOS) on lower timeframes before entering long ✅
- Manage risk accordingly and trail stops if the move plays out
Summary:
Patience is key here. I’m not interested in chasing price into resistance. Instead, I’ll let the market come to me and only act if my criteria are met. If BTC gives us the pullback and a bullish BoS, I’ll be ready to take the trade. Until then, I’m on the sidelines and monitoring price action closely 👀.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk appropriately. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. 🚨
Ether-Bitcoin Ratio Signals ETH Is 'Extremely Undervalued,' The cryptocurrency market is a realm of intricate signals, complex metrics, and often-conflicting narratives. Among the myriad indicators traders and investors scrutinize, the Ether-Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio holds a prominent place. This metric, a simple division of Ethereum’s price by Bitcoin’s price, serves as a barometer for the relative strength and market sentiment between the two leading crypto assets. Recently, this ratio has dipped to levels that historically signaled significant undervaluation for Ether, sparking debate about a potential upcoming rally. However, a confluence of factors – notably surging ETH supply, stagnant network demand, and a weakened token burn mechanism – casts a considerable shadow over this optimistic outlook, suggesting that past performance may not be a reliable guide in the current, uniquely challenging environment.
Understanding the ETH/BTC Ratio: A Barometer of Relative Strength
At its core, the ETH/BTC ratio reflects the market's perception of Ethereum's value proposition relative to Bitcoin. When the ratio trends upwards, it indicates that ETH is outperforming BTC, suggesting growing investor confidence in Ethereum's ecosystem, technological advancements, or utility. Conversely, a declining ratio signifies BTC's relative strength, potentially due to factors like "digital gold" narratives, safe-haven appeal, or specific Bitcoin-centric catalysts.
A low ETH/BTC ratio, such as those observed in recent times, is often interpreted by analysts as a sign that ETH is "cheap" or "undervalued" compared to Bitcoin. The logic is that, over time, capital flows within the crypto market tend to seek out assets with stronger growth potential or those perceived as lagging behind their fundamental value. If ETH is indeed undervalued, the expectation is that it will eventually catch up, leading to a rally in both its USD price and its value relative to BTC. This potential for "mean reversion" or a "catch-up trade" is what excites many market participants when the ratio hits historical lows.
Historical Precedents: When Undervaluation Sparked Rallies
The argument for an impending ETH rally based on the current low ETH/BTC ratio is not without historical merit. There have been several instances where a depressed ratio preceded substantial upward movements for Ether.
1. Post-2018 Crypto Winter: After the ICO boom and subsequent crash, the ETH/BTC ratio languished for an extended period. However, as the DeFi (Decentralized Finance) ecosystem began to gain traction in 2020 ("DeFi Summer"), ETH, as the foundational layer for most DeFi protocols, experienced a resurgence. The ratio climbed significantly as capital flowed into Ethereum to participate in yield farming, lending, and decentralized exchange activities.
2. The NFT Boom (2021): The explosion of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) in early 2021, predominantly on the Ethereum blockchain, provided another major catalyst. The increased demand for ETH to mint, buy, and sell NFTs pushed its price and the ETH/BTC ratio upwards, as Ethereum's utility as a platform for digital collectibles and art became undeniable.
3. Anticipation of The Merge (2021-2022): As Ethereum moved closer to its pivotal transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) – "The Merge" – market sentiment turned increasingly bullish. The promise of significantly reduced energy consumption, coupled with the "ultrasound money" narrative (where ETH issuance would drastically decrease and potentially become deflationary due to EIP-1559's burn mechanism), fueled strong buying pressure. The ETH/BTC ratio saw notable gains during periods of heightened Merge anticipation.
In these instances, the low ETH/BTC ratio acted as a tinderbox, and specific fundamental catalysts served as the spark that ignited significant rallies. Investors who recognized the undervaluation signal and anticipated these catalysts were handsomely rewarded. This historical pattern underpins the current optimism among some analysts who see the present low ratio as a similar buying opportunity.
The Complicating Factors: Why This Time Might Be Different
Despite the compelling historical precedents, the current market environment for Ethereum presents a unique set of challenges that complicate the simple "undervalued, therefore rally" thesis. These headwinds stem from fundamental shifts in Ethereum's tokenomics and network dynamics.
1. Surging Supply: The Post-Merge Issuance Reality
While The Merge successfully transitioned Ethereum to a more environmentally friendly PoS consensus mechanism, its impact on ETH supply has been more nuanced than initially portrayed by some bullish narratives.
• Staking Rewards: Under PoS, new ETH is issued as rewards to validators who stake their ETH to secure the network. While the rate of new ETH issuance is significantly lower than it was under PoW, it is still a consistent inflationary pressure. The annual inflation rate from staking rewards is currently in the low single digits.
• Net Issuance vs. Deflation: The "ultrasound money" thesis largely depended on the EIP-1559 burn mechanism (discussed later) consistently burning more ETH than is issued through staking rewards, leading to a net deflationary supply. However, this has not always been the case post-Merge. There have been extended periods where ETH has been net inflationary.
• Unstaking and Liquid Staking Derivatives: The ability for validators to unstake their ETH (enabled by the Shanghai/Capella upgrade) means that previously locked supply can re-enter the market. Furthermore, the proliferation of Liquid Staking Derivatives (LSDs) like Lido's stETH or Rocket Pool's rETH, while enhancing capital efficiency, also means that staked ETH is not entirely removed from liquid circulation, as these derivative tokens can be traded or used in DeFi.
This consistent, albeit reduced, issuance contributes to sell pressure, especially if demand does not keep pace. The narrative of ETH becoming a deflationary asset has been weakened, impacting one of the key bullish arguments that previously supported a higher ETH/BTC ratio.
2. Flat Demand: A Stagnant Network Picture
For ETH's price to appreciate significantly, there needs to be robust demand for the token, driven by network usage and adoption. Currently, several indicators suggest that demand is, at best, flat, and in some areas, declining.
• Network Activity Metrics: Key on-chain metrics such as daily active addresses, transaction counts, and total gas consumed have shown periods of stagnation or even decline. While Layer 2 scaling solutions are processing more transactions, this activity doesn't always translate directly into proportional demand for ETH on the mainnet, especially if Layer 2s manage their own fee markets efficiently.
• Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi: While DeFi remains a cornerstone of Ethereum's value proposition, the growth in TVL has slowed considerably compared to the explosive growth seen in 2020-2021. Capital inflows into DeFi protocols on Ethereum have been less aggressive, partly due to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory concerns, and the emergence of competitive DeFi ecosystems on other blockchains.
• Competition from Alternative Layer 1s and Layer 2s: Ethereum faces increasing competition from other Layer 1 blockchains (e.g., Solana, Avalanche, Aptos, Sui) that offer higher throughput and lower transaction fees, attracting users and developers. Moreover, Ethereum's own Layer 2 ecosystem (e.g., Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon zkEVM, Starknet, zkSync Era), while crucial for its long-term scalability, also fragments user activity and can, in some ways, reduce direct demand pressure on ETH for L1 transactions if users primarily operate within these L2 environments.
• Macroeconomic Headwinds & Regulatory Uncertainty: Broader economic conditions, including inflation, interest rate hikes, and recession fears, have generally dampened risk appetite across financial markets, including crypto. Additionally, the ongoing regulatory uncertainty in key jurisdictions like the United States creates an environment of caution, potentially hindering institutional adoption and large-scale investment in assets like ETH.
• NFT Market Cool-Down: The NFT market, which was a significant driver of ETH demand, has experienced a substantial cool-down from its peak in 2021-2022. While innovation continues, transaction volumes and average sale prices have fallen, reducing the ETH velocity associated with this sector.
Without a significant uptick in genuine network demand – more users transacting, more capital flowing into DeFi, a resurgence in NFT activity, or new killer dApps emerging – it becomes harder for ETH to absorb the ongoing supply issuance and stage a sustainable rally.
3. Weakened Burn Mechanics: The Diminished Impact of EIP-1559
EIP-1559, implemented in August 2021, was a landmark upgrade for Ethereum. It introduced a mechanism where a portion of every transaction fee (the "base fee") is burned, permanently removing that ETH from circulation. This was a key pillar of the "ultrasound money" narrative, as it created a deflationary pressure that could, under conditions of high network demand, outpace new ETH issuance.
However, the effectiveness of this burn mechanism is directly tied to network congestion and the level of the base fee.
• Lower Network Congestion: In periods of lower network activity and congestion (as has been observed more frequently recently), the base fee required to get transactions included in a block decreases. A lower base fee means less ETH is burned per transaction.
• Impact of Layer 2s: As more transaction activity shifts to Layer 2 scaling solutions, which have their own, typically much lower, fee structures, the demand for block space on Ethereum Layer 1 can decrease. While L2s do periodically batch transactions and settle them on L1 (consuming L1 gas and contributing to the burn), the overall L1 gas consumption directly attributable to individual user transactions might be lower than if all those transactions occurred on L1.
• Periods of Low Burn: Consequently, there have been extended periods post-Merge where the amount of ETH burned via EIP-1559 has been insufficient to offset the ETH issued as staking rewards. During these times, ETH's supply becomes net inflationary, undermining the deflationary narrative that was a strong catalyst in previous cycles.
While EIP-1559 remains a crucial and beneficial upgrade for Ethereum's fee market predictability, its power as a consistent deflationary force has been tempered by the current realities of network demand and the evolving Layer 2 landscape.
Synthesizing the Outlook: A Tug-of-War
The current situation for Ethereum is a complex tug-of-war. On one side, the historically low ETH/BTC ratio flashes a compelling "undervaluation" signal, suggesting a potential for significant upside based on past market behavior. This attracts traders looking for relative value plays and those who believe in Ethereum's long-term fundamental strengths.
On the other side, the fundamental picture is clouded by persistent, albeit reduced, supply issuance, a lack of explosive growth in network demand, and a burn mechanism whose deflationary impact is currently muted. These factors create genuine headwinds that could prevent ETH from easily replicating its past ratio-driven rallies.
For ETH to truly capitalize on its apparent undervaluation relative to Bitcoin, several things likely need to occur:
1. A Resurgence in Demand: This could come from a new "killer app" or narrative on Ethereum, a significant rebound in DeFi or NFT activity, increased institutional adoption (perhaps spurred by clearer regulation or new investment products like spot ETH ETFs in more jurisdictions), or a general improvement in macroeconomic conditions that boosts risk appetite.
2. Successful Maturation and Value Accrual from Layer 2s: As Layer 2 solutions mature and gain wider adoption, their success needs to translate into tangible value accrual for ETH itself. This could happen through increased L1 settlement demand, the use of ETH as a primary gas token on L2s, or innovative mechanisms that tie L2 economic activity back to the L1 token. EIP-4844 ("Proto-Danksharding") is a step in this direction by aiming to reduce L2 transaction costs, potentially fostering more L2 activity and, consequently, more L1 settlement.
3. A Shift in Broader Market Sentiment: Often, major altcoin rallies, including for ETH, occur after Bitcoin has established a strong uptrend and market sentiment becomes broadly bullish. A sustained Bitcoin rally could create a "wealth effect" and encourage capital to rotate into ETH and other altcoins.
Conclusion: Caution Warranted Despite Undervaluation Signals
While the ETH/BTC ratio strongly suggests that Ether is trading at a significant discount compared to Bitcoin, historical precedent alone may not be enough to guarantee a rally in the current market. The fundamental challenges posed by ongoing supply, relatively flat demand, and a less potent burn mechanism are significant and cannot be ignored.
Investors and traders eyeing ETH must weigh the allure of its apparent undervaluation against these tangible headwinds. A potential ETH rally is likely contingent not just on the ratio mean-reverting, but on a demonstrable improvement in Ethereum's core demand drivers and a favorable shift in the broader market environment. The "extremely undervalued" signal is a call for attention, but thorough due diligence and a clear understanding of the current complexities are more crucial than ever. Ethereum's long-term vision remains ambitious, but its path to reclaiming relative market dominance against Bitcoin in the near term appears more challenging than in previous cycles.
Bitcoin Hits $100K: Bull Run IgnitesWhat Tariff Shock? Bitcoin Surges Past $100K as Market Recovery Continues
The cryptocurrency market has been making headlines again as Bitcoin (BTC) surges past the $100,000 mark, signaling a robust recovery and potentially the start of a new bull cycle. In an environment marked by economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating central bank policies, Bitcoin’s remarkable resurgence has captured the attention of retail investors, institutional participants, and financial analysts alike.
This article delves into multiple facets of Bitcoin’s ongoing rally, including its recent rebound after a sharp drop, the role of whales in fueling the push toward $100K, the realized cap hitting a record high, and whether aggressive profit-taking by investors signifies a local top. Additionally, we’ll explore the implications of Bitcoin's return to $100K and why it hints at a "significant price move" that could shape the broader financial landscape.
________________________________________
Bitcoin Rebounds After Sharp Decline: The $100K Push
Bitcoin’s journey to $100,000 has been anything but smooth. After experiencing a sharp correction earlier in the year, many market participants feared that the cryptocurrency's bull run was over. However, Bitcoin's ability to rebound from its lows with renewed vigor has defied expectations.
Whales Drive the Rally
One key factor behind Bitcoin’s resurgence is the activity of "whales," large-scale investors who hold significant amounts of BTC. On-chain data reveals that whales have been accumulating Bitcoin during periods of lower prices, effectively acting as a stabilizing force during market downturns. By reducing liquidity in the market and concentrating their holdings, whales have created conditions conducive to a price surge.
In addition, whale wallets have been observed transferring large sums of Bitcoin out of exchanges and into cold storage, signaling a long-term bullish outlook. This withdrawal pattern reduces the supply of Bitcoin available for trading, increasing upward pressure on the price.
________________________________________
Realized Cap Hits Record High: A Bullish Signal
Another notable development supporting Bitcoin's rally is its realized capitalization (realized cap) hitting an all-time high. Unlike market capitalization, which multiplies the total supply of Bitcoin by the current price, the realized cap calculates the value of each Bitcoin at the price it was last moved. This metric provides a clearer picture of the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin holders.
The realized cap reaching a record high indicates that a significant portion of Bitcoin has changed hands at higher price levels, reflecting increased investor confidence. This metric aligns with the narrative of accumulation, as both retail and institutional investors appear to be buying Bitcoin at higher prices in anticipation of future gains.
Accumulation Continues
On-chain analytics reveal that accumulation trends have persisted throughout Bitcoin's recovery. Wallet addresses holding between 1 and 10 BTC have grown substantially, showing that smaller investors are also entering the market. This broad-based accumulation not only adds to Bitcoin's bullish momentum but also reduces volatility by distributing supply across a wider range of participants.
________________________________________
Profit-Taking and Local Top Concerns
While Bitcoin's surge past $100,000 has been met with enthusiasm, some analysts caution that aggressive profit-taking by investors could signal a local top. Short-term holders, in particular, have been selling their Bitcoin to lock in gains, as evidenced by the increasing Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR).
Signs of a Local Top?
A high SOPR indicates that investors are realizing profits at a significant rate, which often coincides with price corrections. However, it’s important to note that profit-taking is a natural part of any market cycle and does not necessarily signal the end of a bull run. In fact, periods of consolidation and minor corrections can strengthen the foundation for a more sustainable rally.
Market sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, has also entered the "Greed" zone, suggesting that bullish enthusiasm may be running high. Historically, extreme greed has preceded short-term pullbacks, making it crucial for investors to remain cautious.
________________________________________
New Bull Cycle? Bitcoin’s Return to $100K Hints at Significant Price Move
Bitcoin’s return to the $100,000 milestone has rekindled hopes of a new bull cycle, with analysts pointing to several factors that support this narrative. The cryptocurrency market has historically moved in cycles, driven by supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and technological advancements. The current environment appears to align with the early stages of a new bull phase.
Institutional Adoption and Macro Tailwinds
Institutional interest in Bitcoin has grown exponentially over the past few years. Major financial institutions, including hedge funds, pension funds, and publicly traded companies, have embraced Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a store of value. This influx of institutional capital has not only validated Bitcoin’s role as a legitimate asset class but also provided a steady source of demand.
Moreover, macroeconomic tailwinds such as high inflation, declining confidence in fiat currencies, and geopolitical instability have enhanced Bitcoin's appeal as a decentralized, non-sovereign asset. Central banks’ monetary policies, including quantitative easing and low interest rates, have further eroded the purchasing power of traditional currencies, driving investors toward Bitcoin.
Supply Shock and Halving Cycles
Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins and its halving cycles play a crucial role in its price dynamics. The most recent halving in 2024 reduced the block reward for miners, effectively decreasing the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation. This supply shock, coupled with growing demand, has historically preceded significant price rallies.
On-chain data shows that long-term holders, who typically accumulate Bitcoin during bear markets, are now distributing their holdings during this bull phase. This redistribution of supply suggests that a new wave of investors is entering the market, further fueling the rally.
________________________________________
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
As Bitcoin continues to defy expectations, the question on everyone’s mind is: What’s next? While predicting Bitcoin’s price movements with precision is challenging, several scenarios could play out in the near term.
Scenario 1: Sustained Bull Run
If accumulation trends persist and institutional interest continues to grow, Bitcoin could maintain its upward trajectory, potentially reaching new all-time highs. Key resistance levels to watch include $120,000 and $150,000, which could serve as psychological barriers for further price appreciation.
Scenario 2: Short-Term Correction
A short-term correction is always a possibility, especially given the aggressive profit-taking observed in recent weeks. However, such corrections are often healthy for the market, allowing for consolidation and setting the stage for more sustainable growth.
Scenario 3: Macro-Driven Volatility
External factors, such as changes in monetary policy, regulatory developments, or geopolitical events, could introduce volatility to the market. While Bitcoin has shown resilience in the face of macroeconomic challenges, it remains sensitive to major news events.
________________________________________
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s surge past $100,000 marks a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market, signaling a robust recovery and the potential start of a new bull cycle. Driven by whale activity, record-high realized capitalization, and persistent accumulation, Bitcoin has defied skeptics and reasserted its dominance as the leading digital asset.
While concerns about a local top and profit-taking are valid, the broader trends suggest that Bitcoin is preparing for a significant price move. Whether this rally leads to sustained growth or faces temporary setbacks, one thing is clear: Bitcoin remains a transformative force in the financial world, offering a decentralized, inflation-resistant alternative to traditional assets.
As we look ahead, the combination of institutional adoption, macroeconomic tailwinds, and Bitcoin’s unique monetary policy positions it for continued success. For investors and enthusiasts, the journey to $100,000 and beyond is more than just a milestone—it’s a testament to the enduring promise of blockchain technology and the future of decentralized finance.
