BTC reality check! Flat wave C & Oct 26 bottomWe’re back on BTC to drill into my alternate Elliott Wave count and the cyclical roadmap. Cycle work pointed to an October top, which we’ve seen. I remain long-term bullish, but near term I still see a flat correction in play, with wave C unfolding.
Drivers
Elliott Wave structure
The larger uptrend remains intact, but the current phase looks corrective as a flat: wave A as a flat, wave B irregular, and wave C unfolding in five subwaves.
Near term, price action looks like we’re in or finishing wave 4 of C. By alternation, with wave 2 having been deep (around the 61.8% area), wave 4 often resolves shallower (around the 38.2% area). If it stretches closer to 50% and compresses, a triangle into a final wave 5 is plausible before completion of C.
If C remains overlapping and wedge-like, an ending diagonal scenario keeps downside limited. If instead the decline is impulsive, this drop could be only wave 1 of a larger 5-wave move lower.
Momentum-wise, higher-timeframe RSI shows divergence, consistent with a late-stage correction.
Cyclical framework
Bitcoin’s recurring rhythm has often mirrored halving cycles: a bear phase roughly around a year, followed by multi-year bull advances.
Symmetry between bottom→halving and halving→top continues to be informative. With the next halving due in 2028, the cycle window I’m monitoring points to a potential bottom window around Q4 2026 (often cited around October).
This video focuses less on a single trade and more on the timing roadmap: when the corrective structure might complete and when to consider re-engaging for the longer term.
Key zones to watch
If an ending diagonal plays out, a termination near the high-60Ks (around 69k area) would be consistent with “limited downside.”
A more dramatic impulse path could open a wider “magnetic zone” of support roughly spanning the low-70Ks down toward the 50Ks, with deeper stretch risks if the impulse extends.
Confirmation will depend on how wave 4 resolves and whether the next leg proves corrective (ED) or impulsive.
Trade idea
My base lens is structure-first, timing-second. If wave C finishes as an ending diagonal, downside should be limited in the high-60Ks and setting up a bullish continuation in 2026. If instead the drop proves impulsive (5 down), treat bounces (0.5–0.618 retraces) as opportunities to reassess shorts, with a support “magnet” spanning roughly low-70Ks to low-50Ks, and deeper risk if momentum accelerates. Validation hinges on how wave 4 resolves and whether the final leg is overlapping (ED) or cleanly impulsive.
If you want my annotated charts and live invalidation levels, drop a comment. Like and subscribe to catch the mid‑week follow‑up when wave 4/5 signals firm up.
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Short
Why a 700K ATH Bitcoin is Technically realistically possibleAt first glance, that is a crowed messy chart but once you understand it, it is very easy to read.
Also, I have only 2 sets of Cycle data to use as prior to 2013, PA worked very differently and it only entered the channel you see in 2013.
"Trends" shown by Trend lines take a minimum of 3 points to make it Valid, so all of what I am saying is very hypercritical BUT, as you will see, has some standing I believe.
So, Lets go.
The Day counts at TOP of screen are simply ATH to ATH
The 2 previous ones we have are in the 1400's day count and I used the average of those two to project forward to an estimated ATH date for 2025. This lands us in Q4, around 20 October...., maybe early Q4 but given it is an average, it could be either side of 20 October in real terms.
But it is a ball park to work from.
The REAL reason for this post is what we have below
Using the 50 SMA ( red) and 100 SMA ( blue ) I have counted the days between ATH and Cross overs of these SMA
The data is listed at the end as I know many will not read them but would rather get the reason for this post before hand..
But in brief - The Selling after ATH is getting stronger each cycle. This is shown by the day count from ATH to 50 SMA crossing below 100 reducing each cycle
The number of days where the 50 was below the 100 was reducing but the 2022 Bear cycle was extended by Macro events and influences like Rate Rises and so became extended.
However, over all, the Cycle remains on track due to quick recovery from a deep bear. Influences like ETF and Corporate acceptance are cercaintly responsible.
But it is this that has caught my eye
There are only 2 occasions where PA has come down and touched the Cross over of the SMA's
The 1st was in Dec 2019 ( Arrow A ) before PA began its climb to 1st ATH in March 2021 ( I am ignoring the March 2020 COVID Dump),
It Took 679 days from that point, to get to Cycle ATH in Nov 2021, Marked with an A on day count.
The 2nd was also in Dec, in 2023 ( Arrow A )
PA has acted differently than in 2020 but if we project the same day number ( A ) we had from that period, forward, It matches EXACTLY with the projected day count we had from above using ATH to ATH day numbers
And so then, using that date and the Trendline we have coming off previous ATH's, we end up with a potential ATH of around 700K usdt in Q4 2025.
I will add, the line graph appears to miss the Trendline but If I use Candles, they do touch, I assure you; A line is easier to use for Visibility here.
I will also ad that some may say that MA's are by nature, just reflections of PA. They are the Average of Price over a period of Time. And so of course we will end up with a same date. But as you can see from this chart, those Averages Vary and we do end up with different dates...
Lets list the date
ATH to 50 Cross Below 100
from 2013 ATH - 511 days
from 2017 ATH - 441 days = 70 daya lees
from 2021 ATH - 315 days = 126 days less
This maybe showing that the Sell off from ATH, as people take Profits, is getting more Rapid. Tjh eprice drop is getign Steeper
Then we have the day count where the 100 was Above the 50, or the "Bear winning"
After 2013 ATH - 399 days
after 2017 ATH - 301 days
after 2021 ATH - 448 days - I feel this was extended due to the deep bear market because od Macro events such as Rising interest rates and the consequences of these.
Next we have the days from where the 50 crosses back Above the 100 till we reach ATH
To reach 2017 ATH = 574 days
To reach 2021 ATH = 679 days - 105 days Longer
In yellow, I have included the day counts to the 1st 2021 ATH as some consider THIS to be the real cycle ATH But as I have shown in previous posts, there are reasons why this is not the case.
And Besides, it simply was NOT the highest price of that cycle.
I would love people opinion on this , so, if you have read this far, plwease let me know what you think
Thank you
Bitcoin Halving Cycles | Cycle Bottom to Previous ATHWe're going to take a look at the previous cycle bottoms to previous all-time highs and the time it took from those two points. Our current cycle bottom was FTX collapsing in November, with them creating the cycle top back in 2021 for the notorious double top. The only other scenario in history where we've retested the cycle bottom levels was in the 2015 bear market, however, that came relatively quickly and we reversed quite strongly after that. No cycle is exactly alike, as that would be too easy, however, we can get a grip on the general timelines / where we are in the current cycle.
This cycle is a little bit different in the sense that in the past 3 cycles, we've had a 2-year bear market starting in the odd years, however, this time, we truly bottomed in November '22 across the board.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
2012 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH:
From the bottom of the cycle, it took 392 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs.
2015 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH:
From the bottom of the cycle, it took 658 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs.
2019 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH:
From the bottom of the cycle, it took 644 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs.
Where do we stand today?
Basing this idea completely on historical trends / 4-year cycles, we can conclude that the three cycles took 392, 658, and 644 days, respectively. Also something to note, volume has been decreasing on Bitcoin since the first cycle in terms of Bitcoin traded. This could easily be marked off as increase in price = less whole coins moving around.
Anyways, let's take the mean of these three numbers and apply it to our current cycle bottom found on August 1st of 2022.
392 + 658 + 644 = 1701 / 3 = 564.67 days on average from cycle bottom to previous ATH. That would mark us off at February 19th, 2024 reaching the previous ATH:
Let's say we want to take out the first cycle as an outlier, as 658 and 644 are fairly close to each other. Add those two up and we get 1,302. Divide that by 2 and we get 651.
We'd get a date around May 13th, 2024 which would be about a month after the halving. The halving is right around the corner and the only question is if we're going to see a buy the hype leading up to it and a sell the news, or a buy-train after the halving without a pump fake.
We've already seen the Litecoin halving on August 2nd, 2023 (earlier this month), and the next Bitcoin Halving is coming up in April of next year.
As always, please do your own research, this chart is intended for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
🚀 Long 
