Looking at the chart we can see the 3 month yield inverted with the 10 year yield a few weeks ago so recession could be anywhere from 12-18 months out. The question is, where do we stabilize in this current down swing? Things will probably go sideways for a while before we break support and rates dive to zero. The catalyst will be nGDP figures and Bank of Canada policy.
The 10 year Canadian yield is now below the 1 year and 3 month yield, which is a good indicator of a potential recession ahead. Rates follow economic growth, so we can interpret yields as a function of the economy. These interest rates also impact the price of money (CAD interest rates). One way to interpret lower interest rates in the Canadian economy is that...
