Can USDT.D break the Taker Seller Zone ? | USDT.D 1H Analysis👋 Hey everyone! Hope you’re doing great! - ❤️ Welcome to Satoshi Frame .
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👀 On the 1-hour timeframe of USDT.D, we can see that after the news of Trump imposing tariffs on China, USDT.D experienced an extremely sharp pump — rising from below 4.3% to near 5%. After that, it formed a trading-range box in this zone. The top of this box lies around 4.89%, overlapping with a “taker-seller” resistance zone where Tether’s market share is currently capped. There’s a key midline at 4.74% and a bottom at 4.59%, completing this trading-range pattern. Price has tested the top three times but failed to break it, meaning USDT.D remains trapped below resistance. A 15-minute multi-timeframe Low has also formed at 4.83%, creating a new structure that, if broken, could trigger Tether selling.
🧮 Looking at the RSI oscillator, since October 12 it has tried three times to enter its 1-hour OverBuy zone but failed each time. Each rejection from around the 70 level led to selling pressure and movement back toward its 50 support zone. This 50 level is a very important static resistance — a breakout above it could push USDT.D toward higher resistance levels. The 50 RSI zone also overlaps with the 4.83% price level, meaning if that area is lost, selling pressure and volume decline could begin.
🕯 The size and volume of recent USDT.D candles show weakness every time it reaches the 4.89% top. Breaking the taker-seller zone will require a large “whale” candle — a strong, high-volume bullish move that can fully absorb the sell orders placed there. In short, breaking this level needs a strong price surge and maximum buying pressure.
🧠 To manage or open new positions using USDT.D as a guide, we can consider these scenarios:
🟢 Breakout of the taker-seller zone: This breakout could be triggered by news or even a Trump tweet :) From a technical standpoint, this area needs a massive, high-volume “whale” candle so that all sell orders in this zone get filled instantly. Once price surges and holds above it, the next resistance would be around 5.1%.
🔴 Break of the 15-minute multi-timeframe Low: This Low sits at 4.83%. A confirmed close below it could signal the start of selling and volume decline. In this scenario, the next support for USDT.D would likely be the box midline — around 4.74%.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
Candlestick Analysis
Mission Complete: 4245-4250:Time to Flip Short on Gold!Gold has already reached a high of around 4246, and its upward momentum has relatively weakened. To be honest, under the current market conditions, I do not advocate aggressively chasing gold above 4240, because as gold continues to rise, more and more callback risks are accumulated! We can also see that each surge in gold is followed by a clear pullback. So even if we choose to short gold, we can still get a good profit margin in the short term!
Although gold is on an overall upward trend, I still divide the rising channel into three areas; the first area: 4250-4220; the second area: 4220-4190, and the third area: 4190-4160. As gold rises, the technical traction of the lower area on the gold price becomes stronger. Therefore, according to the first area division, in the short term, gold has the need to at least retreat to the area near 4220. Even after falling below the area near 4220, it may continue the downward trend to the 4220-4190 area.
Therefore, in terms of short-term trading, I would prioritize trying to short gold in the 4245-4255 area, first targeting the short-term retracement area: 4230-4220 as the target.
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NZD/CAD: True Bullish Reversal?! 📈NZDCAD formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
The subsequent neckline breakout serves as a strong bullish reversal signal.
The previously broken neckline now serves as a key support level.
Consequently, we anticipate bullish price movement, potentially reaching the 0.8085 resistance level.
EURNZD: Intraday Confirmation?! 🇪🇺🇳🇿
A quick follow-up for EURNZD.
I see some intraday bullish confirmation on an hourly time frame
after a retest of a broken structure.
A double bottom pattern on that provides a strong bullish clue.
I expect a rise now at least to 2.0375
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Long trade
1Hr Tf overview
📘 Trade Journal Entry
Pair: SUIUSDT.P
Date: Mon 13th Oct 25
Time: 10:30 am
Session: London → New York Session AM
Direction: Buyside Trade
Timeframe: 4-Hour
🔹 Trade Details
Entry: 2.8172
Profit Level: 3.2539 (+15.50%)
Stop Level: 2.7944 (–0.81%)
Risk-Reward (RR): 19.15
🔸 Technical Context
Model Type: Accumulation → Consolidation → Breaker Block → FVG Continuity
Narrative:
Price consolidated within a compression phase at the base of the prior liquidity sweep. The reaccumulation formed after a deep mitigation into a 4H FVG, aligning with the 50 EMA reclaim and VWAP equilibrium retest.
4Hr
CHOCH and BOS confirm directional shift from previous markdown.
FVG cluster at 2.80–2.85 served as the low-risk entry zone.
Volume expansion and liquidity absorption are evident around 2.81.
The target region is mapped to the prior imbalance and breaker block at 3.25
(HTF premium zone). Market structure gap fills coincide with 0.75 Fibonacci projection — confirming confluence for TP.
🧠 Sentiment Context
Market sentiment remains risk-on, as broader altcoin rotation regains traction after weeks of compression. The Fear & Greed Index showing recovery above 45 suggests returning investor confidence. SUI fundamentals (emphasis on scalable gaming-focused blockchain) further align with speculative inflows into high-throughput L1 ecosystems.
⏱️ Trade Management Notes
Entry confirmation via a break of micro-swing high and volume-backed displacement.
Partial profits recommended at 3.10 (mid-range liquidity). Continue monitoring reaction around 3.25 — a likely short-term distribution point before next accumulation.
Don't miss any opportunity to go long on a pullbackAfter we gave our trading ideas last night, gold touched the upper pressure level as expected. After we tried to arrange short orders as planned, we left the market safely in the early morning.
At present, gold continues its strong upward trend, with daily lines closing positively for consecutive days, and the bull-dominated pattern is further consolidated. I have pointed out many times before that the current gold price deviates greatly from the moving average, and the indicators show overbought divergence characteristics. We need to be vigilant about possible short-term correction needs, which has also been verified many times. In the short term, gold continues to rise again. The upper pressure can be focused on 4260-4270, which is also the channel suppression level. When it is touched for the first time, you can try to short with a light position.
But remember, our core trading ideas remain unchanged and we remain bullish in the medium to long term. Short selling is only an auxiliary trading strategy. Any downward adjustment before effectively breaking through the key support point can be regarded as a short-term technical correction, thus providing a better entry opportunity for bulls.
Pay attention to the support of 4205-4190 below. If it retreats to here, you can continue to go long on gold. The important strong support is still 4140.
OANDA:XAUUSD
GBPUSD – Experiencing a Painful Short Tem SqueezeIt has been a difficult past 7 days for GBPUSD traders. First, prices broke below 1.3320 last Thursday, a level that had held on previous sell offs since the start of September and it looked as though sentiment had turned down, backed up by concerns surrounding the sustainability of UK government debt, flatlining growth to start Q3 and uncertainty regarding the tough decisions the UK Chancellor may have to make regarding spending cuts and/or tax increases in her much anticipated Autumn budget (November 26th). This was all at a time when the US dollar (USD) faced a resurgence after stale underperforming short positions were cut back.
The GBPUSD sell off looked to be further cemented on Tuesday by UK employment data which showed private sector wage growth to be slowing faster than expected, leading markets to price in a greater probability of Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts in early 2026, a move which sent GBPUSD prices down to a 3-month low at 1.3248 on Tuesday. All good for the shorts so far!
At this stage all looked set for the drop to accelerate to even lower levels but then suddenly in stepped Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who in a speech on Tuesday evening indicated increased policymaker concerns regarding a slowdown in the US labour market, which reinvigorated investor hopes that the US central bank could be ready to cut interest rates again 25bps (0.25%) at their next meeting on October 29th. This sent the dollar lower, which in turn saw GBPUSD move all the way back up to a potential short-term resistance at 1.3420 (more on this in technical update below) this morning as traders were forced to cut weak short positions, or face the possibility of an extended squeeze.
Looking forward, the environment into the weekend may remain challenging, with traders awaiting the outcome of important inflation data in the UK next Wednesday (CPI, 0700 BST Oct 22nd) and the US on Friday (CPI, 1330 BST Oct 24th), and this could mean the technical outlook may take on more significance.
Technical Update: Focus on Long Term Support Range
Since mid-April 2025, GBPUSD has traded within a broad, choppy sideways price range. Upside attempts have stalled at 1.3789, the July 1st failure high, while the downside has been contained by a support range marked by 1.3118, the 61.8% retracement of the April 7th to July 1st rally and 1.3140, the low from both May 12th and August 1st.
In this type of environment it can be helpful to identify and monitor potential important support and resistance levels that may influence where GBPUSD price activity could move next.
Possible Resistance Levels:
While a closing break above 1.3789, the July 1st high may be needed to suggest a breakout from the current broader range, breaks of shorter-term resistance levels if seen, could still trigger a phase of price strength. These interim levels may warrant attention in the sessions ahead.
Attempts to push higher in late September and early October were capped by the falling Bollinger mid-average, which stands at 1.3420, and is currently being tested at the time of writing (0700 BST). With the average still declining, this level may now act as an initial resistance again.
Following the price recovery so far this week, closing breaks above 1.3420, while not an outright positive, could lead to renewed attempts at price strength and see tests of potential resistance at 1.3527, the October extreme, even 1.3726, the September 17th failure high. That said, if as suspected, GBPUSD remains within a broad sideways range, it might well take a closing break above the 1.3789 high to suggest more sustained upside attempts.
Potential Support Levels:
With a rally emerging from Tuesday’s 1.3248 low, this level may now act as an initial support in the near term.
If closing breaks below 1.3248 were to emerge in upcoming sessions, this could renew pressure on the 1.3118/40 support band, the key zone that has repeatedly contained prior declines within the broader sideways range. Monitoring the closing defence of 1.3118/40 might prove to be important moving into next week.
Should 1.3118/40 give way on a closing basis, it may lead to increasing downside momentum, with some traders then viewing the 1.2708 April 7th low as the next potential main support level.
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The Charge Sounds Again — Marching Toward 4240–4250!Currently, gold has once again hit a new high in a volatile upward manner and touched around 4228. Although the bullish momentum has slowed down compared with before, it still has enough strength to control the situation and dominate. Coupled with the support of multiple safe-haven factors, the market bulls can still continue to move upward after a brief rest!
It can be clearly seen from the current technical form and structure that gold has rebounded again after retreating to the area near 4180 several times. There are many obvious lower shadows in the candle chart. It can be seen that gold has built a new rising relay platform near 4180 in the short term. Gold may use this as a springboard to continue to rise and launch a charge towards the 4240-4250 area in the short term!
According to the trend structure, as the center of gravity of gold continues to move up, the support area has moved up to the 4215-4205 area in the short term. If gold cannot fall below this area during the retracement, gold may continue to rise with this as support. Then, the first thing we need to pay attention to is the 4240-4250 area.
So, for short-term trading:
1. If gold first retreats to the 4215-4205 area, we can consider going long on gold in small quantities. Since the entry level is relatively high, it's important to set up protection measures during the trade.
2. If gold continues to rise to the 4240-4250 area, if gold first touches this area, we can consider going short on gold in small quantities. Since this is a counter-trend trade, it's also important to set up protection measures during the trade.
EUR/AUD: Important Breakout! With a robust bullish rally, 📈EURAUD broke and closed above a key daily resistance cluster yesterday.
The broken structure and an ascending trend line now constitute a significant demand zone.
A bullish continuation is anticipated.
The subsequent resistance level is projected at 1.8075.
The wicks could be warning usThe long topside wicks on the AUD/NZD weekly chart were giving traders a strong message well before Thursday’s weak Australian jobs report, signaling the run-up from the April lows may have run its course and that downside risks were building. Those risks have increased further following the sharp spike in unemployment seen in September. Traders may therefore want to consider selling rallies in AUD/NZD now rather than buying dips, putting short setups on the menu.
Sellers were active on pushes above 1.1350 over recent weeks, making that an ideal entry level for shorts. However, there’s now a decent risk the pair may not get back there, hinting selling around current levels may be required for those looking for downside. Should that be the case, ensure your stop level fits with the desired risk-reward from the trade.
As for potential targets, AUD/NZD did plenty of work either side of 1.1250 back in 2022, putting it on the radar given it’s also located near the 23.6% fib retracement of the April–October high-low. Beyond, the November 2024 high of 1.1180 marks the start of a more pronounced support zone down to 1.1142 where the 38.2% fib level is found. The price was capped below this zone for large periods over the past year, making it screen as a potential target level to reassess the setup should it play out.
Momentum indicators remain in bullish territory, although the break of the uptrend in RSI (14) warns that topside strength is fading. That’s not yet confirmed by MACD, although it’s showing early signs of rolling over toward the signal line. The overriding message is one where bulls should be cautious entering fresh long positions.
Good luck!
DS
GBPCHF: Price Breach Daily HTLKey Observations
Daily Timeframe:
Price recently tested the daily HTL and made a weak reaction, indicating that buying strength at this level is very lackluster
H1 Timeframe:
Price is breaching the intraday ATL, signals counter-trend move is coming to an end and we're seeing confluence with the daily downtrend
Price is also accelerating away from the EMA band as another signal of momentum picking up
AUDUSD: Price Holds Below Daily HTLKey Observations
Daily Timeframe:
Price remains below HTL, which signals lack of strength to try and trade above it
Downside momentum is likely to pick up as price is below EMAs and EMA20 is threatening to cross back below EMA60
H1 Timeframe:
Price remains bearish as indicated by it's inability to trade above the EMA band and sustain that momentum
Price crossed back below the EMA band with a strong bearish candle so the entry is based on the current pullback move
AUD/JPY: Potential Bounce Before Bears Regain ControlAUD/JPY pulled back around 3.1% from its recent high just below the 101 handle, but price has since held above 97.85, showing early signs of near-term strength. A small spinning-top doji formed near the lower end of the range, hinting that dip buyers are starting to step in.
On the 1-hour chart, AUD/JPY has carved out three consecutive higher lows, the most recent appearing as a bullish hammer.
For now, the bias leans toward a minor leg higher before another downside attempt. Key resistance sits between 99.00–100.00, while bears will be watching for a break below 97.85 to target the 97.00 handle and possibly the 96.32 low.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Profit Both Ways — Double the Trades, Double the Thrill !After gold hit above 4210, it showed obvious signs of stagflation. First, after gold touched around 4218, it retreated to around 4164; secondly, after gold touched around 4212 during the rebound, it retreated again to around 4179.While the two pullbacks were limited, they also indicate that after gold's strong rally, the market is beginning to diverge and diverge.
We can use the ABC rule to determine the position of D. Based on the chart composition, D is around 4160. That is to say, in the short term, gold has the need to retreat to around 4160 again, and this area is also a strong defense line for bulls. If this defense area is broken, gold may continue its downward trend and test the bull-bear dividing line of 4140-4130.
So after a clear rejection signal appears, I think we can continue to try to short gold in the 4205-4215 area. The retracement target area is first located in the 4180-4160 area; and once gold retreats to the 4160-4150 area, we can wait for an opportunity to rejoin the gold long trade!
Sell the Rip, Buy the Dip —Double Profit on Gold’s MoveGold currently hit a high of around 4218 and is currently retreating slightly. However, it quickly rebounded to above 4200 after just retreating to around 4164. It can be clearly seen that it is still far from the level of panic selling, so the current retreat is only regarded as a healthy technical retreat.
The market has a high degree of recognition and participation in the current continued rise in gold prices, and expectations for a pullback in the short term should not be too large. With the support of multiple risk-averse factors in the market, and the resonance of news and technical factors, the market's bullish sentiment is high. It is not ruled out that every effective technical pullback in gold is a good time to participate in long trading.
Judging from the current morphological structure, gold is under pressure from the resistance zone of the trend channel and has not been able to stand above 4200 in the short term. There is a technical need for a retracement, so gold is likely to continue to fall and test the support of the 4155-4145 area. If gold fails to fall below this support area during its downward exploration, gold may continue to rebound based on this support area and hit the area around 4230.
So for short-term trading:
1. First, we can try shorting gold in the 4185-4195 area, initially targeting the 4160-4150 area.
2. After gold retraces to the 4155-4145 area, we can try going long again, initially targeting the 4200-4210 area.
We first consider shorting gold, and after gold effectively retreats, we will wait for an opportunity to go long on gold. In this way, we can capture every volatile profit as much as possible and avoid profit loss!
Small Caps: Finally a Breakout?The Russell 2000 has been stuck in a rut for years, but some traders may think the small-cap index has finally achieved escape velocity.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the November 2021 high around 2,460, where prices stalled last November. RUT has gotten above it this month and refused to stay below. Is a breakout finally underway?
Second is the September 25 low of 2,394. Prices tested and held that level last week, which may confirm support is in place.
Third, the index had a bullish inside candle after Friday’s selloff, followed by a bullish outside bar. That may reflect buyers are gaining control.
Next, RUT has apparently broken a trendline that began with the high on October 6.
Finally, consider this weekly ratio chart of the Russell 2000 against the Nasdaq-100. Notice how RUT outperformed in late 2023 and July 2024. Both of those moments saw expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. (Such moves often favor small caps.) Notice how the ratio is climbing again at the same time that investors look for more dovishness from the central bank.
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