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Long trade 🟦 1. Trade Details Pair: AUDUSD Direction: Buyside Timeframe: 15-minute Session: NY Session AM Entry: 0.64923 Take Profit: 0.65289 (+0.47%) Stop Loss: 0.64815 (–0.17%) Risk-to-Reward: RR 4.11 Date/Time: Wed 26 Nov 25 — 10:20 am 🟩 2. HTF Context The market recently completed a multi-day bearish leg, tapping into HTF discount. Structure shows a significant wick below 0.6460, creating a major liquidity sweep and shifting HTF order flow. AUDUSD then created progressive M15 BOS structures, reclaiming the 50 EMA and building bullish momentum. The push into the imbalance at 0.6507 is a structural confirmation that price is entering a markup cycle. 🟪 3. Liquidity Sell-side sweep: Price took the low at 0.64577, clearing several layers of Asia + NY lows. Induced shorts on the breakdown → ideal fuel for the reversal. Buy-side targets above: M15 FVG cluster around 0.6515 – 0.6530 Thin liquidity pocket at 0.6528 Prior M30 inefficiencies that remain unbalanced 🟥 5. Entry Logic & Execution Entry at the discount side of the M15 imbalance. Stop-loss placed beneath the protected swing + FVG tail (0.64815). Confluence factors: EMA alignment (bullish cross) Displacement candle confirming continuation Rejection of the mid-range supply (0.6504) 🟫 6. Sentiment & Narrative USD weakening as macro flows rotate out of safe-haven behavior. AUD benefited from improved Asian session sentiment & commodity correlation. NY AM session volatility created the ideal expansion window for continuation. Retail bias heavily short after multi-day downtrend → wrong-footed by the sweep + shift. 🟩 7. Outcome & Forward Bias Structure remains bullish above 0.6480. Next HTF draw-on-liquidity levels: 0.6550 0.6580
by davidjulien369
Long trade Wed 26th Nov 25 — 13:30 PM (NY Session PM) Entry TF: 5-Min 🟩 1. Trade Parameters Pair: AUDNZD Direction: Buy-Side Entry: 1.14459 Stop Loss: 1.14377 Take Profit: 1.14740 Risk–Reward: 5.6R 🟨 2. Higher-Timeframe Context HTF (15m / 30m / 1H) structure: Market formed a deep displacement (observed 1Hr Chart) down during Asia → took equal lows at 1.14300–1.14320. Followed by a strong NY recovery leg, leaving multiple clean FVGs in discount. Price reclaimed the WMA + EMA cluster, signalling a structural shift. 1H candle shows a wick rejection + close above mid-range, aligning with bullish continuation. 1Hr Chart 🟧 3. Liquidity Liquidity removed before entry Aggressive sweep of the Asian low (1.1430). Equal lows formed at 1.1437 → then taken. Clear liquidity purge to draw in late sellers. Liquidity above (targets) 1.14740 (clean buy-side liquidity + inefficiency). Prior NY swing high sits above FVG. A void from earlier displacement needs filling. 🟥 4. SMC / ICT Technical Model Breakdown ✔ Model: FVG + BOS + Shift in Orderflow BOS at approx. 1.1456 confirms accumulation reversal. Price pulls back into a refined 5-min FVG + micro OB. EMAs flip to bullish stack (yellow over blue). Entry occurs at the equilibrium inside the pullback. Entry TF: 5-Min Key confluences: MSB + BOS alignment. Multiple overlapping FVGs acting as support. Reclaim of discounted zone. Strong upward displacement candle pre-entry. 🟪 6. Sentiment / Narrative Narratively: Market created compression into the low (inducement). NY PM session usually drives expansion after morning accumulation. AUD strength rotated strongly in NY hours. NZD weaker across currencies → strengthening the long bias. Sweep → reclaim → enter at discount → deliver to imbalance. 🟫 7. Trade Outcome Status: Pending / active
Long
by davidjulien369
Long trade📘 TRADE JOURNAL ENTRY — AVAXUSDT (5m) Pair: AVAXUSDT Direction: Buyside Session: NY AM Entry TF: 5m Entry: 13.521 Take Profit: 14.557 (+7.23%) Stop Loss: 13.437 (-0.25%) Risk-to-Reward: RR 20.86 🟩 2. HTF Context (Structure & Liquidity) HTF market (1H–4H) was in macro discount, aligning with a bullish retracement model. Prior days show deep displacement down into a demand zone 13.12 – 13.30. Clear liquidity sweep of the Friday low, followed by compression and accumulation. London session earlier in the day created a swing low BOS → signalling bullish continuation. 🟧 3. Model Identification (ICT / SMC Confluence) ICT Model Used: Buyside Reversal → Displacement → FVG Entry Confluences: Accumulation wedge → breakout → retest entry. Liquidity grab below the structural low (13.18 zone). Break of Structure (BOS) on the 5m confirming short-term trend reversal. FVG (Fair Value Gap) aligned with entry zone. Demand zone MITIGATED, validating the bullish bias. EMA/WMA stack inversion (blue above yellow) signalling bullish strength. 🟪 4. Entry Logic Entry triggered at 13.521, which aligned with: Rebalanced FVG Retest of breaker block inside the premium/discount boundary Trendline retest + micro BOS confirmation Volume shift from selling to buying pressure Stop loss placed logically below the inefficiency + OB low at 13.437 🟥 5. Liquidity Targets (Upside Objectives) Local buy-side liquidity above 13.897 – cleared HTF supply zone 13.97 – 14.25 – approached Full imbalance toward 14.557 – completed Continuation target: 14.92 (HTF liquidity pool) 🟫 6. Sentiment & Narrative Tokyo PM session provided clean reaccumulating, typical for continuation plays. Broader crypto market in a risk-on phase, assisting directional bias. Retail trapped short after breakdown of London low, providing fuel for the upside run. Market moved strongly from discount → equilibrium → premium, validating execution. 🟨 7. Outcome Summary Status: In Session
by davidjulien369
Long trade 🟩 1. Trade Parameters Pair: GBPAUD Direction: Buy-Side Entry: 2.02991 Stop Loss: 2.02778 Take Profit: 2.03792 Risk–Reward: 8.03R 🟨 2. Higher-Timeframe Context HTF Structure (15m / 30m / 1H): Market was coming off a deep liquidity sweep below 2.02400. A clear BOS printed on the 15m as price broke above internal structure (micro swing at 2.0290). Price rebalanced a previous 15m FVG and held above the 50 EMA → transition from bearish → bullish orderflow. 🟧 3. Liquidity The move leading into the entry satisfies the exact ICT liquidity chain: Liquidity Taken Before Entry Asia Session Lows swept (yellow markers). NY Pre-Market Low taken → displacement candle confirmed bullish intent. Equal lows near 2.0250–2.0260 fully cleared → prime inducement. Liquidity Resting Above (Targets) Old High at 2.0379 (primary liquidity magnet). Multiple FVG inefficiencies (0.75 level) above the entry line. Prior NY session high → acts as the delivery target. 🟥 4. SMC / ICT Model Breakdown ✔ Sweep → BOS → FVG → Entry inside discount Sweep: Lows around 2.0240–2.0250 removed. BOS: Bullish break above 2.0290. Retracement: Pullback into 2-min FVG + OB alignment. Entry: In discount of the short-term range, using a tight SL under structural low. Displacement: Strong bull candle confirming orderflow. Confluences: Price traded into HTF demand zone. EMA/WMA stacking bullish (yellow above blue). Strong bullish volume spike after BOS. FVGs acting as support 🟪 6. Sentiment / Narrative Market sentiment aligned with bullish recovery after liquidity engineering: NY session typically forms the expansion phase. Prior consolidation built compression → expansion potential. Price rejected decisively from extreme discount pricing. AUD weakness helped pump GBP crosses. 🟫 7. Trade Outcome Result: Pending / Running according to chart
Long
by davidjulien369
SUI intraday while BTC stallsBTC is chopping at key levels, so I’m not forcing trades there. Instead I’m using SUI on Kraken: strong push up from 1.33 to 1.55 on 24th, then clear distribution and break lower, which gives three structured ideas. A. Base case: short a failed retest of 1.50–1.52 after rejection, invalidation above 1.54–1.55, targeting 1.46 then 1.42. B. Aggressive: if price grinds under 1.48 and breaks, I look to sell a retest from below with the same invalidation and target at 1.44. C. Counter-trend: I only consider a long after a sharp flush into 1.40–1.42 and a clean reclaim on 15m; below 1.40 the bounce idea is off. This is a map, not signals. I size so a full stop costs about 0.5% of equity and take partial profits at the first target.
KRAKEN:SUIUSD
by vanlubow
Market outlook and investment strategy: I am bullish.#XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD Judging from the structural trend and the performance of gold in different timeframes, gold has formed a short-term double bottom structure based on the trend line, and the prototype of the W pattern is gradually emerging. Although the price retreated slightly after touching the channel resistance level around 4160 in the evening, it did not break the current upward structure, and the market is still dominated by bulls. Meanwhile, influenced by multiple positive factors such as geopolitical uncertainties and rising market speculation about a December rate cut, gold still has the potential for further gains. Therefore, based on the current trend structure and fundamental logic, in the future trading process, we can first pay attention to the short-term resistance of 4170-4180, which is a key resistance under the triangle consolidation pattern. When it first touches this level, we can try to short gold with a small position and set the stop loss above 4185 to prevent the risk of a strong bullish breakout. Meanwhile, if this strategy is effective, we need to pay attention to the subsequent rebound after the gold price falls back and stabilizes, which will help confirm the completion of the W pattern. At that time, we will focus on the breakout of the neckline at 4200-4205. If it can stabilize above this level, the upside potential will be further opened up, and it may extend to 4240-4245, or even higher! In summary, our trading strategy must closely follow the confirmation signals of the trend structure. Therefore, it is essential to strictly control position size and stop-loss. We will continue to monitor market dynamics and optimize our trading strategy accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Miracle-Walker_GC
3
FLNC - BullishFLNC – Volatility Expansion Thesis The chart shows a multi-year range with two critical Volatility Expansion levels acting as the fulcrum of every major move. Price has repeatedly expanded away from these levels and then reverted back into them. They function as the midpoint of the entire structure. 1. Primary Setup Price is attempting to reclaim the upper Volatility Expansion band near 17.40–17.76. Historically, every time price reclaimed this zone, it triggered a multi-month expansion leg to the upside (yellow arrow reference). When price failed this zone, the move unwound back into the lower expansion level at 14.83. This is the same mechanic repeating now. 2. Why This Area Matters This 17–18 zone is where prior expansions initiated and where prior failures collapsed. It is the single most important decision-making level on the chart. It represents: • structural acceptance or rejection • volume re-accumulation or distribution • volatility compression or release Holding above it converts the entire multi-year range into bullish continuation. 3. Current Structure Price swept the lower expansion level at 14.83, held, and impulsively rotated back toward the upper expansion band. The current rejection wick only matters if price cannot reclaim 17.40–17.76. Reclaiming it confirms buyers stepping back into control and signals a new expansion cycle. 4. Expansion Target The next untested zone is the large inefficiency at 36–38. This is the same grey box drawn on the chart. It is the only clean upside magnet left once price accepts above the expansion band. Liquidity is thin above 22, so the move accelerates quickly once the reclaim is secured. 5. Trigger The trade is binary: • Reclaim 17.40–17.76 → expansion toward 36–38. • Fail the reclaim → mean reversion back toward 14.83. Price is sitting right under the trigger and volatility is compressing, which usually leads to an expansion move.
NASDAQ:FLNCLong
by TenderTown
2
FireHoseReel | NOT: 64% Down — Capitulation or Massive Reversal?🔥 Welcome to FireHoseReel ! Let’s explore the latest Notcoin price structure. 🪐 NOTCOIN – Market Structure & Key Levels Update Notcoin has suffered a 64% crash following the flash crash triggered by the US–China trade war, marking one of the most severe declines in its history. Since its launch via a Telegram airdrop, Notcoin has consistently shown fragile price behavior, with repeated sharp corrections. Persistent selling pressure has made each pullback deeper, and the recent price action has even added an extra zero — clearly reflecting the gravity of this drawdown. ✨ Market Structure & Liquidity Outlook At this stage, Notcoin’s structure has become extremely sensitive. Any additional downside could easily trigger a new corrective wave. On the bullish side, if capital rotation returns to the TON ecosystem, Notcoin may experience a liquidity-driven upside squeeze. However, this scenario is heavily dependent on TON network performance and Telegram execution. • Key Price Levels • Daily resistance: 642 • Major support: 547 A daily close above 642 could activate a high-risk long trigger, best approached through futures trading for better flexibility. On the other hand, a break below 547 may unleash aggressive selling pressure across Notcoin. 📊 Volume Analysis – The Decisive Factor Volume remains the most critical metric at this stage. After the flash crash, overall volume declined, but during multi-timeframe corrections, selling pressure clearly resurfaced, as confirmed by recent volume candles. So far, strong buy-side volume has been rare, while sell pressure has stayed persistent and dominant. ✅ Trading Scenarios : 🔼 Long Scenario • Confirmed break above 642 • Accompanied by a strong surge in volume • This could trigger an upside expansion and support holding airdropped NOT or opening futures long positions. 🔽 Short Scenario • Breakdown below 547 • Followed by a clear increase in sell pressure • This would signal distribution risk, possibly forcing whale exits. Losing this support could justify reducing exposure and re-entering at lower levels to control risk. 🛞 Risk Management & Disclaimer Please remember to always use proper risk management and position sizing. Nothing in this analysis is financial advice. The market can change quickly, so always trade based on your own strategy, research, and risk tolerance. You are fully responsible for your own trades.
by FireHoseReel
Nifty Analysis EOD – November 26, 2025 – Wednesday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – November 26, 2025 – Wednesday 🔴 The “Greenest Day”: Open = Low and a One-Sided Rally Towards ATH. 🗞 Nifty Summary Responding strongly to positive news and global market cues, the Nifty started with the formation of Open = Low (25,842.95) and launched a relentless, one-sided rally toward the 26200 level. Many traders were expecting a dip at resistance, but this slow, steady, and strong northern run kept pushing upward. After a long period, all indices traded firmly in the green. The index closed powerfully at 26,205.30, adding a massive +320.50 points (+1.24%). The sheer magnitude and structure of the move—a full-body bullish candle—raises the key questions: Was this heavy short covering on the first day of the new expiry, or genuine fresh institutional long positioning? The move has been stunning, and the Nifty is now right on the doorstep of the All-Time High (ATH). 🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart with Levels 🛡 Intraday Walk The Open = Low condition immediately signaled aggressive buying and zero morning hesitation. The rally consumed all previous resistance levels from the past two days with minimal effort. This strongly imbalanced market structure created a challenging trading day for those expecting a retracement. The steady climb, driven by strong volumes, suggests high conviction behind the move. The focus now shifts entirely to the imminent challenge of the All-Time High at 26277. 📉 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels 🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown Open: 25,842.95 High: 26,215.15 Low: 25,842.95 Close: 26,205.30 Change: +320.50 (+1.24%) 🏗️ Structure Breakdown Type: Strong Bullish candle (Marubozu). Range (High–Low): ≈ 372 points — high volatility and decisive trend strength. Body: ≈ 362 points — reflecting powerful upside momentum with strong institutional buying. Upper Wick: ≈ 10 points — buyers held control till the very end, minimal profit booking near the close. Lower Wick: ≈ 0 points — the market never traded below the open (Open = Low), indicating aggressive, non-stop buying from the first minute. 📚 Interpretation This is a textbook signal of extreme bullish conviction. The Marubozu-like structure completely engulfs several previous days’ candles, negating the recent bearish retracement and confirming the continuation of the primary trend. The focus now is on follow-through; a move of this strength often precedes an immediate challenge of the next major objective. 🕯 Candle Type Marubozu Bullish Candle 🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart ⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update ATR: 210.90 IB Range: 195.5 → Big Market Structure: ImBalanced Trade Highlights: 09:45 Long Trade - Target Hit (R:R 1:2.94) Trade Summary: Given the powerful one-sided nature of the move, the strategy quickly identified the bullish imbalance and captured the core directional move with a high R:R long trade, performing perfectly in a trending market. 🧱 Support & Resistance Levels Resistance Zones: 26220 (Immediate Resistance) 26277 (All-Time High / Key Hurdle) Support Zones: 26104 (Previous Strong Resistance, now first support) 26030 25985 25930 ~ 25920 🧠 Final Thoughts “Frozen by the move? Now, plan for the ATH breach.” The market has cleared all immediate resistance and is poised to challenge the All-Time High (26277). Given the strength of today’s close, the bias for Thursday is strongly bullish. We must watch for an immediate follow-through above 26220. If the market fails to breach the ATH (26277) on the first attempt, a minor dip back to the 26104 support would be healthy before the next attempt. ✏️ Disclaimer This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
NSE:NIFTY
by kzatakia
FireHoseReel | TOTAL2 Facing Major 4H Resistance🔥 Welcome to FireHoseReel ! Let's dive into total2 market structure. 👀 TOTAL2 4H Analysis TOTAL2 has reached its four-hour resistance around the one point two four level and is currently showing a clear reaction and rejection from this zone. This resistance can act as a key barrier for Ethereum and ETH-based altcoins, and a breakout above it could activate their long triggers. A descending trendline has already been broken, and then TOTAL2 hit this resistance with a strong whale-sized bullish candle, which clearly highlights the importance of this level. RSI Osilator📊 Now focus on the RSI oscillator: it is currently sitting near its local top, and the four-hour overbought level has reached the same area as the resistance. This creates a strong overlap between momentum and price resistance. If the RSI pushes beyond this momentum limit together with a clean breakout of the resistance zone, the market could see a much stronger acceleration. Triggers Zone 🎯 The short trigger for TOTAL2 is located lower at the support zone. A breakdown below this area could push TOTAL2 lower and lead to a deeper market correction. On the upside, a clean break of the resistance zone would confirm bullish continuation for ETH and related altcoins. 🛞 Risk Management & Disclaimer Please remember to always use proper risk management and position sizing. Nothing in this analysis is financial advice. The market can change quickly, so always trade based on your own strategy, research, and risk tolerance. You are fully responsible for your own trades.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by FireHoseReel
Nasdaq Eyes Resistance: Pullback Before Year-End Highs?The Nasdaq posted another strong 2% rally yesterday, even after New York’s opening session swept liquidity by hunting early long positions before reversing higher. This behavior suggests that smart money continues to accumulate positions on dips. Currently, price is pressing into a key resistance zone, which has historically triggered short-term pullbacks. For today, a reasonable scenario would be a final tap into this resistance, followed by a retracement toward the Previous Day’s High (PDH)—a level that may now act as fresh support for bullish continuation. From a fundamental perspective, investors remain optimistic as the market increasingly prices in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which historically boosts tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq. Additionally, overall risk sentiment has improved, supported by strong corporate earnings and stabilizing inflation trends. If momentum continues, the Nasdaq could be setting up for a push toward new highs into year-end.
FX:NAS100Long
by Dan-Goldfx
EURUSD: Breakout Confirmation or Pullback Setup?EURUSD appears to have broken out of its recent consolidation range, showing early signs of bullish continuation. Today, a pullback toward the 1.056 zone (your 1.56 appears to be 1.056 in market terms) would be healthy before another upward attempt. European economic data has recently come out stable and in line with expectations, supporting EUR strength and reducing recessionary pressure in the short term. On the technical side, EURUSD is now trading above short-term structure, forming HLs and a clean bullish market structure break. Holding above 1.056 would open the door to a continuation toward 1.060–1.064, especially if US data continues to weaken the dollar. However, if 1.056 breaks down, price may easily revisit 1.054—the previous consolidation support and liquidity zone. Upcoming catalysts include: US data releases that may weaken USD if rate-cut expectations rise. Eurozone inflation/PMI readings, which have stabilized and are giving the euro some breathing room. Key Points (Short Summary) EURUSD broke out of consolidation yesterday. Likely pullback to 1.056 before continuation higher. Stable Eurozone data supports EUR strength. Above 1.056 → targets 1.060–1.064. Break below 1.056 → revisit 1.054. USD weakness depends on upcoming US data and rate-cut expectations. If you want a 40-word summary or a title for TradingView, I can provide it. OANDA:EURUSD
Long
by Dan-Goldfx
Bitcoin – Approaching Key Resistance at 90,000Since the recent drop, Bitcoin has been forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), showing a solid 8–10% recovery. This structure suggests buyers are regaining control, but now price is approaching a major test. The next key level is the 90,000 resistance zone: Bullish Scenario: If BTC breaks above 90,000, momentum could accelerate as more traders add longs. This would open the door for a clean move back toward the 95,000 level. Bearish Scenario: If price fails to break 90,000, a rejection would likely send BTC back to the 85,000 support zone. If 85,000 does not hold, the next liquidity levels lie at 83,000–81,000. Overall, Bitcoin is recovering well, but the 90,000 level will determine whether the rally continues or a deeper correction begins. BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Long
by Dan-Goldfx
2
FireHoseReel | DASH: Approaches Its Trigger Zone, Stay Sharp!🔥 Welcome FireHoseReel ! Let’s take a closer look at DASH and its key market triggers. ⚡ DASH – 4H Timeframe Analysis DASH entered a corrective phase after a strong vertical rally and has been completing its pullback using a bearish curve-line. Each time price touched this curve, it rejected and moved lower. Now, DASH is reacting to this curve again—its 4th touch—and this curve overlaps with the $63 resistance, creating a key confluence zone. A breakout above $63 can activate a risky long trigger, but the main long trigger remains at $74, where the structure fully shifts bullish. 📊 Volume Analysis Volume on DASH has been gradually increasing, though it’s not yet visible on the 4H timeframe. However, in the 15m and 1H charts, we can see clear buy-side volume spikes forming — a sign that volume may soon transfer upward into higher timeframes. This rising volume behavior often signals early accumulation and makes DASH a solid candidate to keep on your watchlist. 🔁 DASH/BTC – A Parallel View DASH/BTC shows strong structural similarity to the DASH/USDT chart. This alignment suggests coordinated whale behavior — essentially, more BTC is being converted into DASH, strengthening the pair. Trigger zones for both pairs overlap, which gives higher confidence in our trade setups. Setting alerts for both charts is recommended. 📌 Trading Scenarios 🔼 Long Scenario • Break of $63 • Confirmed by increasing 4H buy volume • A pullback retest after breakout increases win rate and allows cleaner entry • Main long confirmation arrives only with a break of $74. 🔽 Short Scenario • Breakdown of $55.24 • Must be accompanied by high sell volume • This would open the door for a deeper correction 🛞 Risk Management & Disclaimer Please remember to always use proper risk management and position sizing. Nothing in this analysis is financial advice. The market can change quickly, so always trade based on your own strategy, research, and risk tolerance. You are fully responsible for your own trades.
Long
by FireHoseReel
FireHoseReel | BNB Daily Analysis #7🔥 Welcome FireHoseReel ! Let’s break down the current BNB structure and important triggers. BNB – Short-Term Market Structure Update Since yesterday, BNB formed an almost equal low around $837 and bounced upward. However, on the 1H timeframe, it printed a lower high compared to the previous peak and failed to break the $873 resistance. A break above the high activates our long trigger, while a break below the low activates the short trigger. 📊 Volume Analysis Pay close attention to volume to understand internal market behavior. After the heavy market drop, BNB formed a critical higher-timeframe support near $809, followed by a sharp drop in volume. The first strong volume expansion, combined with trigger activation, will act as confirmation either for opening new positions or for holding existing ones. 🔁 BNB/BTC Perspective From the BNB/BTC pair, it appears price is possibly forming a fake breakout at the top of its trading range. If this fakeout plays out, BNB’s relative strength against Bitcoin may weaken, allowing: • BTC dominance to rise • USDT dominance to increase • And BNB to activate its short trigger On the flip side, if BTC dominance and USDT dominance both drop, BNB can move upward, activating the BNB/USDT long trigger. This potential fakeout is also accompanied by a volume divergence, which increases its technical significance. 📌 Trading Scenarios The active scenarios for BNB are outlined below and can be used depending on how price reacts. 🔼 Long Scenario • A breakout above the multi-timeframe high at $873 • Must be accompanied by a clear increase in volume This provides a risky long setup toward the next resistance. If that resistance shows signs of breaking, we can add to the position, since the main long trigger sits at $897. 🔽 Short Scenario • A breakdown below the newly formed support at $837 • Must be confirmed by a strong increase in sell volume • Only with volume confirmation does this become a valid short trigger. 🛞 Risk Management & Disclaimer Please remember to always use proper risk management and position sizing. Nothing in this analysis is financial advice. The market can change quickly, so always trade based on your own strategy, research, and risk tolerance. You are fully responsible for your own trades.
by FireHoseReel
Mastering Price Action: A Beginner’s Guide to Reading the MarketThis discussion goes beyond the basic idea of "memorizing candlestick names." If you want to truly master price action as a tool for reading the market and understanding it as a basis for trading, this guide is for you. Disclaimer: The information provided in this tutorial is intended solely for educational purposes. Nothing in this material should be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Any strategies, methods, tools, or concepts discussed are presented for learning and demonstration only. You are responsible for evaluating your own decisions and risks. Always conduct independent research and consult a qualified professional before making financial or investment choices. ⚠️ WHY MOST TRADERS MISUSE PRICE ACTION Most traders use price action in a simplistic way: See a Pin Bar = Buy See a Doji = Indecision See an Engulfing = Reversal The problem with this approach is that you are trading shapes instead of market dynamics. Price action is not merely pattern recognition. It is a language. To master price action, you must understand: Volatility (Range) Conviction (Body) Buying/Selling Pressure (Shadows) Context (Relative performance) Expectation vs. Reality (Market Inertia) Price action tells you the story of the battle between buyers and sellers. 📊 1. DECODING THE SINGLE BAR (THE DNA) Before you can read a chart, you must be able to read a single bar. Although a single bar is created from Open/High/Low/Close, it gives you critical information beyond that. 🕯️Range = Volatility The distance between High and Low. Wide Range: Active market, high volatility. Narrow Range: Dead market, low volatility. This chart shows the low volatility period transitioning to the high volatility prior to a major reversal. 🕯️Body = Conviction Large Body: The market conquered territory. Strong conviction (Bullish or Bearish). Small/No Body (Doji): The market is undecided. A battle with no winner. This chart points out two bullish bars, one with weaker conviction than the other. 🕯️Shadows = Pressure Upper Shadow: Selling Pressure. The market tried to go higher but was rejected. Lower Shadow: Buying Pressure. The market tried to go lower but was rejected. This chart shows how we can observe the shifting of buying/selling pressure by observing the wicks (tails/shadows) of candlesticks. TIP: For examining shadows, focus on the shadows (wicks) that take up around at least 50% of the bar range. 📊 2. CONTEXT IS KING (TWO-BAR ANALYSIS) Now, let’s go on to two-bar analysis. Nothing works in isolation. A "wide" bar is only wide(r) if its range is larger than the previous bar. The key here is to use the first bar to set the context for the second. Volatility Check: Is the range expanding (market waking up) or contracting (market resting)? The "Test": Every bar's High and Low are natural support and resistance levels. - If Bar 2 breaks Bar 1's Low and closes lower → Bearish Victory . - If Bar 2 breaks Bar 1's Low but reverses to close higher → Bullish Rejection (False Break) . This chart focuses on one specific bar and compares it with the previous bar. Our observation produces no conclusion, only more questions. 📊 3. THE EXPECTATION GAME (THREE-BAR ANALYSIS) This is the secret sauce of price action readers, forming expectations and observing. The market has inertia , for e.g. bullishness should follow bullishness. This chart extends our earlier two-bar analysis. The third bar is a Doji, confirming uncertainty on the side of the bulls. The Basic Analytical Framework For Close Price Action Analysis: Read Bars 1 & 2: Form an expectation. (e.g., "Strong bearish bars, I expect Bar 3 to go down.") Watch Bar 3: Does it confirm or fail your expectation? Confirmation: Market moves as expected (Trend continues). Failure: Market defies expectation (Potential Reversal). 📊 4. PATTERNS ARE JUST LABELS Stop looking for "Pin Bars" or "Engulfing patterns" by name. Look for the behavior. Pin Bar: Essentially a bar where the market tested a support/resistance level and was violently rejected (Long Shadow). Outside Bar: A bar where volatility expanded and totally overwhelmed the previous session. When you read the story, you don't need the labels. 📊 EXAMPLE TRADING FRAMEWORK From the above, we can build a simple trading framework based on identifying context, forming expectations, and trading the failure of expectations . This is not the only framework but one of the many possible. Bullish Setup Context: Price tests a support level or previous low. The Trigger: A bar shows a failure of bearish expectation (e.g., tries to go lower but closes high). Bearish Setup Context: Price tests a resistance level or previous high. The Trigger: A bar shows a failure of bullish expectation (e.g., tries to break out but slams back down). This chart shows a example leading to a potential long setup. ⚠️ COMMON MISTAKES Trading in a Vacuum: Taking a "Pin Bar" signal without checking if the market is trending or ranging. Ignoring the Body: A long shadow means nothing if the body shows the other side still has control. Fixating on Names: Worrying if it's a "Harami" or an "Inside Bar" instead of asking "Who is winning?" 🎯 CONCLUSION Reading price action is about knowing what the market has done and what it is doing now . It increases your chances of predicting what it will do . Forget the fancy names. Focus on the OHLC relationship. Trade the failure of expectations. Master this microscopic view, and then combine it with macroscopic market structure for the ultimate edge. How do you read price action? Do you use patterns or read the flow? Share your approach below!
AMEX:SPYEducation
by galenwoods
2